Experiment: Speculation Bonaza!!!
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Thread: Experiment: Speculation Bonaza!!!

  1. #1
    Ticunes86
    Guest
    As a new entrance in forexforum.co.za Journals
    I will keep a summary of my methodogy and live trading online.most of my trading style is derived from good trading books I've read,Jesse Livermore etc and some remarkable traders I have had the opportunuity and honor of meeting and learning from.
    Most of the will probably be in point form. If you find a need to discuss further or discuss what's worked for you.
    You may PM me or simply post.
    It's long been a key wish that one day I may form a trading team with strengths that compliment others, I am currently working on an EA with a technician team of developers too.

    Fine summary
    -------------------
    Trading time: 7pm EST to 6 am EST
    1. Know your fundamentals, Establish the overall trend- Get yours news and sense of what will occur for the day.
    There are numerous sources: CNBC, CNN, Reuters, Bloomberg, TTN etc etc, for simplicity that you may just use a consolidator

    2. Assessforexforum.co.zaCalender and syncronise news time with your clock. You ought to be reminded of this news 15-30 mins before the news.
    There's not any such thing like being caught in surprise by expected news, simply carelessness and stupidity.
    Know the news for the day..price is news and news is price. More frequently than not the market will move to the anticipation of this news event for the day.

    3. Utilize technicals to determine your entrance and exits.
    Around the opening of the NZ / Asia markets. Start looking for the 50% FIB retracement of the preceding big move of the day. It will most likely move there. If you are more competitive. You may trade the retracement and trade the persistent trend in the 50.

    Markets: Generally speaking. Asia should likely be used for scalping, London may be used for bigger intraday moves. Asia generally ranges and larger moves are in London.

    A. use proper money management.generally 2% of your total account ought to be all that ought to be risked in a proper trade.
    For cash management, a position ought to factually be 1 percent of account/ ( ATR* Dollars per pip) - ( Reference Trading )
    if you need the formulation please PM me.
    As a rule of thumb the higher the Average trading Range of the currency you are coping with. The lower your unit size ought to be, as it has more potential of burning out you. eg. You may hold more of EU as to GJ
    as general rule. If I lose 10% of my account. I will trade my account as if it has gone down by 20%. , by lowering your unit sizes significantly, this guarantees longetivity of account and allows you to figure out exactly what went wrong.

    B. establish a proper breakout system. I only try to ch breakouts in London. Bigger time frames ( Months. Week, days ,hrs) affirm
    general tendencies, I trade off the 1HR and fintune entrance to 1/5 min precise entries when nessesary.

    Adding components:
    one ought to include components in INCREASING order ( this is really a moot point), the first unit size has been the smallest. This is exactly what I coin the scout
    unit - this will want to verify if there's a trend and if it's going in the direction you are expecting it to. If you are wrong, or temporarily so. There's not any point in adding to positions. ALWAYS usage stops.
    If the trend is in accore to your anticipation ( you are right!!) , then add positions and let your profits run until it hits your TP.
    Entries and exits.
    Predetermine your entries and exits before each trade.I utilize a lower TF MA platform to select my entrances, the ATR to determine the expected length of this transfer. Units are concealed beneath the pivots (S/Rs) and Fibs for more protection against retracements.price usually does not move in a direct line.
    IN occasion your line is heavy and fully loaded, (you'd the opporuntity to include many unit sizes inserted on it at regular intervals supporting S/R lines ). I regard each seperate unit placed across the way as its own and exposed to what is coined the antihedge rule by Jacko with the position locked in a BE.if the price retraces it takes the previous position out at BE and also the position is re-entered whenever price passes through it . ( this is cumbersome and will require an EA)- Profit is only taken when the TP is reached ( move completed), or at the crystal clear sign of a reversal signal of this trend.
    In event, there's not any way to BE. Your stop loss ought to be limited to 30 pips on a single lowests unit size or the scout unit.
    If done correctly, this should net you a typical of 200 pips obtained for each 30 pips loss. Or allows 6 losses for each triumph.
    Risk reward ought to be 6.67:1
    your win loss ratio should be 3:1( in actual trading)

    I'll do some live real time trades on Monday's London.
    I typically only trade 1 trade each day. I scalp in Asia when I am bored but usually loe this process draining if done within a extended period of intense concentration altho it is profitable

  2. #2
    Ticunes86
    Guest
    Experiment:
    London
    Swing:
    Shorted GY 206.48 , will TP 205.55/ SL / 207. 08
    expected resistance 205.78, 205.30
    Failed: T/P in breakeven ( reason 15min reversal signals)

    Market is awaiting ECB, BOE choices on rates
    fairly subdued.

    Asia
    scalp:GY 206.85 TP 206.55, SL, 207.2
    success: profit 30 pips ( 2 percent )

    EU: Long 100 TSL from 1.54 ( 20 pips locked in )
    Sucess: profit 143pips ( 25%)
    Rollover egies: to be initiated invisibly.

  3. #3
    Ticunes86
    Guest
    1. Asia Scalp:
    GY
    Short 206.32 TP:206.12 S/L 206.58
    Success:20 pips
    Rationale: scalping with larger trend
    total scalp to date: 50pips
    ( highly effective MA method, maximisation: stretch scalping to London sessions as well.to boost frequency of scalp by testing engaging earlier causes, multiple pairs, possible EA growth )*


    2. London Swing:
    Trend affirmation:Fundamentals,new of day anticipated, then proceed from greatest TF down.

    Short 206.08 TP:205.15* SL 206.7* ( * assistance resistances )
    anticipated resistances:205.78, 205.47
    Fail: TPed at 205.88
    Rationale: Price action indied inability to break 205.78
    total to date: 30 pips ( 2 failed homerun efforts: diagnosis: GY ranging week due to rates decisions expectations and respective holidays)
    unconfirmed: possibilty to swing more pairs?to take profit at resistance levels after 2 attempts. ( 2 trademark rule)
    Fundamentally, to know markets. When it is domant/ subdued waiting for news, and when it is more volatile.
    Price fallen broke 205.78 to below 205. In NY lunch patience is fundamental. (see EAs)



    3. ) Interest rate roll over egy:
    G/U buy 1.9663 at Frankfurt / TP to be verified ( held for interest)
    E/J purchased at 162.19 ( NY)- all criterias fulfilled
    G/J purchased at 205.77 ( NY) - as above
    ( to be entered FHL), TP taken after rollover.
    Diagnosis:MAs filter criteria unmet-use dashboard. ( WL Criterias fulfilled, fundamental G news are negative.) Big drawdown ( -100pips due to poor entry) for all 3 pairs.
    Possible solution to enter after market closes for one of currencies market.
    Have to increase entrance or enter market before rollover.
    FAILED
    Strategy has to be refined.Involves standing averaging- Iffy

    - Trial run inverse order of dividend/interest strippng after rollover. ( criterias remain exactly the same)

    total to date:

    EU:Long @ 1.543 with 100TSL
    Day with many Eu and Us news.
    B.EU fell, probably bad expectations of news, USD is strengthening on talks of a possible rate hikes in stocks by FED), bucketful of news for NY session.possible candidate for basket currencies.
    FAILED:-100pips
    total to date: 44 pips
    **(testing SAN)
    **Success **
    total to date: 80pips


    Misc.
    .testing EA
    Short GJ: 206.38,TP:205:38, SL,207.38
    success:
    total to date: 150pips ( shifted TP into 204.88 w100pips locked in
    Could have been 200-300pips with pyramid staggered in for a lotal of almost 600-700pips, have to lock , dismiss and let run.

    .testingEAs D, uninitiated ( nb to self. Replace basket with testing the L and D EAs)
    total to date:

    .nb. From fundamental perspective. The 2 currencies with the most contradictory fundamental news for the day may make a perfect swing commerce pair.isolate 2 currencies with most impactful/ diasasterous news or outlook.decide for longs/ shorts for the pair.may swing for complete ATR.
    . .Price is news, utilize anticipation of news by market to lock in for free risk free home runs. ( usual length 5-10 mins before major news)
    Tools: TLs, OSMA

    Notes: Evidence, utilize Trigger A using 100 pip as initial goal, use equal size pyramid until comfy
    1 / 4 Confirmation.

  4. #4
    Ticunes86
    Guest
    FUndamentals: BOE awaiting decision. In case it indies it will cut rates later annually too, Pound will dive, if it conveys ceases, Pound will soar, market expected to become tame. Rumours that Jap will interest rate increase.
    EU: awaiting ECB meeting- will determine whether EU goes up or down. Currently too volatile to trade. Will wait till storm settles.

    Technically: the brief term tendency for the pound is down. Mid term is up.
    Scalp plays: shorted 204.4 TPed: 203.90 / SL/ 205.1 ( principles no transactions 15mins before Frankfurt)
    victory:50 pips
    mistakes: might have been 100 pips, did not anticipate big movement in asia.

    London /NY: Believes the factoring of price into the rate cut decision will push down it. Price may go after way after rates cut is declare. Downward trend supported by charts and momentum
    think downtrend is really hard to reverse, will wait after BOE announcement.if move up will accompany with QQE trigger.
    SHORT @ 204.07 TP: 203.07, SL 204.47( add invertered pyramid. in for run after 100 pips run )
    TPED in 203.07
    victory 100 pips ( 225pips if pyramided)
    lessons learnt. Utilize the 5 minute trigger together with the trend, change to TSL in 100. Outside at 15min reversals.
    See news closely for shift in market sentiment.

    NY sesson: Short @ 203.5 TP202.05 SL 203.47( no pyramid added. Want to test consistency of NY session with system activate )- motive based on L4 short breakout, Goal 202.02, resistence expected 202.57-63, Dow may affect price movements
    Failed: -42 pips ( motion of DOW, shift in sentiment on the USD)
    Nb. Did not have a 15min reversal. Resistence unbroken, will check tendency tmrw, ideal stops should be 15pips above resistance.

    EU: no play (pyramiding to be implemented to EU)
    Observed transfer from 1.53 to 1.544 ( later Trichett emphasised on inflation, broke downward trend line, movement was relatively slow) - should get in with 50TSL second time

    Interest: considers that is the older method of Slimming down to average out if damaging. Possibleonly with a unlimited bankroll or enjoying small lots.
    Viable - but contary to traditional trading signs

    nb. Will include T3 indior to affirm trending
    short term determined by shing down time frames
    add equal lots behind support resistances.
    Most promising is swing with patience
    EU, jacko method with TSL is the most sound fundamental investment method. ( suspected highest REGULAR profit)
    interest rollover needs more filter refinement in my part.
    Summary:
    a.Know that the Fundamentals
    b.As pairs tend to move in dramatic, long-term tendencies that are formed by fundamental FX market factors. After identifying the long-term tendency, you can time your transactions with the shorter-term price movement on the daily chart. Make more pips per transaction by trading with the long-term tendency, identifying support and resistance and analyzing investor sentiment.

    ( the forums is a fantastic place to know investor sentiment, longterm tendencies are identifed by Weekly at Daily Charts downwards ( know the feasible ATR/ stop losses), support and resistances are self explanatory ( Pivotal, Fibs, useful indiors, MAs, 00's, 50's, options etc)

    Tools: TL, Fibs
    Misc: : probably giving up smaller profits for bigger ones.
    To be looked into: Arbitrage trading, Straddles, Hedging,Options, SANs, COTs reports
    that the key to scaling in may be: add when there is strong fundamentals for additional runs. For LT place trades. Also to keep the scaling in from turning into a scale outside.

    Positions held :Limit Short GU @ 1.9590 TTO:1.9516, 1.9650 ( Equal Lows)
    NB keep note on AUD/USD . Is quite simple to trade.

  5. #5
    Ticunes86
    Guest
    Friday May 9
    Fundamentals: Pound contiunes to weaken, frees up, expects GJ to collapse to 200, consoliation betweeen 200 and 205. Before breaking up 200 a little afterwards ( nb. GY is ranging in larger TFs - weeks .weeks)

    Technical: GJ- downtrend ( no contest), GU- PA indies downtrend continuation. EU- PIN bar forming. Use 50 percent retracement

    good fibo course here:http://www.pfxglobal.com/fibonacci-a...irst-page.html

    positions held: GU- Limit Short GU @ 1.9590 TTO:1.9516, 1.9650 ( Equal Lows)= may enter earlier before 50 retrace in order not to lose trade
    GU Short shot at 1.955 ( reason: it may not hit 50 retrace before descend, error: might have zone entry down to 1/5min precision, not the very best price)
    outcomes: 39 pips ( experiment achievement, error should have locked in and operate )


    GY: shorted @ 203.22 TP:202.07, SL 203.52 ( held overnight, reason: a strong current fad's momentum is hard to undo - all indiors tolerable, current in 56 pips profit, 10 pips locked in)
    exploration of overnight position trades- with preferable lockins/ small SLs and massive runs) test win:loss ratios)
    Outcomes: 115pips ( price of trade include overnight short interest rollover.mistakes created: might have locked in and operate with TSL - let your profits run- price fell decisively below 202 in Frankfurt)

    scalps: GY 202.83- 202.5 ( 33pips), 202.7-202.3 ( 40 pips) -
    asia ( 73pips), reason scalping with tendency - can utilize bigger lots if achievement rates are high.
    Frankfurt: overlooked chance of using straddle ( 15 ) would have netted scalp of 50-60pips when it struck known resistence 201.5
    error ( optimise on Frankfurt runs)

    Swings: Targetting GY 200, awaiting best entrances in London/ NY ( utilize reversed pyramid)
    Short @ 201.76 TP: 200.8 SL: 202.36 ( resistance at 201.74, 201.29, add in 51' breakout, lock once price travels below (50), insert final upon violation of 201.29
    Outcomes: 94pips ( 214pips in total ( pyramiding/scaling in)
    error: take Breakout trade at (3c) below 201.7, TP changed to 200.3 to 200.8 ( reason ATR limit reached)
    - if ingnore ATR and analysis counsel next time, price went to 199

    EU: AH- can buy at 50 percent retracement of PIN pub. Best entry with TSL
    Bought in at 154.36 with 70 TSL ( purchased on the run up, mistakes: jumping the gun a little, Pb not totally formed)
    outcomes:
    Fundamentals: ECB meeting worried on inflation ( which is good for the EU), GBP is weakening against the USD,USD is undecided (possible further weakening, a lot will depend on Friday's big news)




    possible further overnight positions: buy / sell zones identified on AU, GU, EU, GY, NY


    GU has been run off achievement, price action works
    EU appears to have formed an almost perfect PIN. If that is so it should rally to 1.55-1.58 on Monday

    pairs to be assessed at conclusion of NY: GU, EU, GY,
    UJ- appears to fad simple


    Outcomes tabulation day 1:total 321 pips for Friday lonely

    possible Monday plays according to TA alone: EU ( Bullish)

    Food for thought: Straddle the IB
    test the damn EA!!!




    Daily Forex Technicals for Friday May 9 EUR - Pivot: 1.5373 Support 1: 1.5307 Support 2: 1.5153 Fight 1: 1.5461 Fight 2: 1.5527
    GBP - Pivot: 1.9555 Support 1: 1.9491 Support 2: 1.9375 Fight 1: 1.9607 Fight 2: 1.9671
    JPY - Pivot: 104.04 Support 1: 103.12 Support 2: 101.58 Fight 1: 104.66 Fight 2: 105.58
    CAD - Pivot: 1.0143 Support 1: 1.0108 Support 2: 1.0011 Fight 1: 1.0205 Fight 2: 1.0240
    CHF - Pivot: 1.0538 Support 1: 1.0455 Support 2: 1.0314 Fight 1: 1.0596 Fight 2: 1.0679
    EUR/CHF - Pivot: 1.6201 Support 1: 1.6152 Support 2: 1.6076 Fight 1: 1.6228 Fight 2: 1.6277
    EUR/JPY - Pivot: 160.01 Support 1: 158.73 Support 2: 156.51 Fight 1: 160.95 Fight 2: 162.23
    EUR/GBP - Pivot: 0.7863 Support 1: 0.7837 Support 2: 0.7770 Fight 1: 0.7904 Fight 2: 0.7930
    GBP/CHF - Pivot: 2.0591 Support 1: 2.0459 Support 2: 2.0243 Fight 1: 2.0675 Fight 2: 2.0807
    GBP/JPY - Pivot: 203.32 Support 1: 201.85 Support 2: 199.48 Fight 1: 204.21 Fight 2: 205.68
    CHF/JPY - Pivot: 98.769 Support 1: 98.212 Support 2: 97.180 Fight 1: 99.244 Fight 2: 99.801
    AUD/JPY - Pivot: 98.004 Support 1: 97.223 Support 2: 95.775 Fight 1: 98.670 Fight 2: 99.451

  6. #6
    Ticunes86
    Guest
    One of these days I don't really want to trade.
    Anyhoo, among these things to observe-Price action really works:
    EU: 150 pips with TSL 100 ( PIN)
    USD/CAD: 36pips ( DBHLC)
    on daily chart
    easy hassle free transactions, will look into integrating PA into tubing trading multi-timeframes. Should be quite practical
    will look at the fundamentals a little more carefully tmrw.GJ only is apparently retace-ing today.it shouldn't breach 207. If that's the case, there may be indiion the bulls are in control.
    One hr QQE has crossed back down and price for some reason refused to cross the 100 EMA convincingly altho the ADX, scho etc has gone bullish.

    Tuesday is going to be a day with Bernake in the news again, meaning volatilty will be expected.i believe Bernake willbe USD positive.

    THings to consider: divergences on Daily.4HRs charts, incorporate PA into tubing trading

  7. #7
    Ticunes86
    Guest
    Lots of Fed speakers today, line-up involves the entire Fed clan, this would make trading of the EU following 6am EST extremely volatile.
    GBP news in 430am.
    GJ is expected to range between the daily trendline it broke thru under during the previous fall which now serves as powerful resistance and also to split the plogical 200 degree again further in the days ahead. The first logical TP area will be ard 198.7 ( where the Fibs lines mass)- look for drawback movements- a safe wager will soon be broken of 200, price has stayed below 100EMA, HRly QQE and momentum turned south,await 4hr confirmation.
    ( anticipated downtrend technically, unless market is expecting good news for the CPI, fundamentally positive market expectations may bring the GJ upward during London )
    or not

    GJ: currently hanging around the pivot (200.28), whether it breaks pivot convincingly, Auslanco 1HR short signal will formal kick . ( EA) . I hope the news brings it there. ( or the following effects of the news) - excuse: news is often payable, when it's released, price goes from where it's brought to what reflects the market more realistically.
    Resistances anticipated: 201.74,200.07
    will short it from 200.15 downwards till 200.07 or reversal.
    A half-hearted PIN is forming on the GJ Daily ( take note and caution)

    EU is expected to range between the 1.54 and 1.58 region, it's currently bullish, TP will be 1.575 area. Which Fibs ext are.the Fed's existence will make the USD base currency volatile today.
    EU remains playable until 6am which profits should be locked.
    EU upgrade: look for buy in @ 1.54 areas or if price starts moving upward from there. Or ignore EU entirely, too much noise from the FEDs

    NB. PA is attainable, large TFs-small TFs, experiment with tunnel trading using PA, and divergences (EA)

    respect timing,Stops etc

    Globex
    https://www.forexforum.co.za/general...iscussion.html

    Easiest pairs to exchange: NZD/USD, A/U, E/U

  8. #8
    Ticunes86
    Guest
    Experiments set up
    Vegas4hr ( momentum system): (1025 610) /two
    Daily Tunnel tradingTP, HRly incorporated:
    Jacko: 1.54 TSL (1.555)
    Proprietary:
    CAT(til reversals):
    Alternatives:
    Rollovers:160 / 4

    trendchaser super ea: 6-12%monthly
    supernova
    psar:
    MA:

    fast notes: now I know why Brian says that he can tell whether the pairs are rollable just by looking at GJand gU.

    Market was ranging.Tp needs to be performed at 0530est
    TP on NU taken - Fib reached, note spinning top forming on outer FIbs

    trendchaser ea did not Appear to include spread ( commission ) in trade.positive only in shape

  9. #9
    Ticunes86
    Guest
    Experiments in place
    Vegas4hr ( momentum system): (1025 610) /2 (576)
    Daily Tunnel tradingTP, HRly incorporated:
    Jacko: 1.54 TSL (1.555) 150 pips ( EU is still volatile)
    Proprietary:
    CAT(til reversals):appro 30-70pips daily.
    Options:
    Rollovers:160 / 4 ( Amazing idior for total view)
    PRice Action: supposed 9/10 ( Fibs S/R in)-add DIP
    trendchaser super ea: 6-12%monthly
    pipmaker:10 percent ( may be better to leave out JPY crosses)
    supernova:
    psar:
    MA:

    fast notes:
    Rolloever: I understand why Brian says that he is able to tell if the pairs are rollable by simply considering GJand gU.

    Vegas:Trading with the tendency ( 4hr ) obviously functions (good things )-will add the hourly entry, refine TP methodlogy. Market was ranging.Tp needs to be taken out in 0530est
    TP on NU taken - Fib reached, note spinning top forming on outer FIbs .AJ hit on the outside (Daily) FIb into the pip too, excellent stuff.

    PA: most interesting observation with daily DIP interaction with trends, makes sense, a powerful tendency is generally hard to undo, strange how these PIT traders come up with similar egies.



    Note: trendchaser ea did not Appear to include spread ( commission ) in trade.positive only in form May 13, 2008 12:33'm
    Trendchaser and pipmaker-( will make remarkable gains 20% daily however drawdown significant-suggests not feasible on volatile pairs)'

    Learnt: Eliminate fear,utilize COT to loe extremes, Trends( Demarkers, Lg.s etc, ), Dow closes affects Asia opens, mouteki, PAs ( excellent)

  10. #10
    Ticunes86
    Guest
    Fundamentals:
    COT:
    Equity:


    Models ( Slow and Steady)
    --------------------------
    *Vegas ( per week, 4HRly(fad ), Daily(TP), HRly( entrance ):


    Jacko Anti-Hedge:


    Rollovers, Kantor:


    *PA:

    Propreitary:

    Misc ( Runups, slow newstrades etc- ignorables):

    Models ( Mad Money account) - 30% ( crazy trade-70:30 concept)
    ---------------------------------
    ( Seperate)
    MysticGenie discretionary ( MM:expo number- componding
    Extreme cot trading, PA
    Remove fear,use COT to find extremes, Trends( Demarkers, Lg.s etc), Dow closes influences Asia opens, mouteki, PAs
    - possible integration A/H, ching 2th of trend to security concerns ( seems to defeat the stage. .) :
    scaling in (large )



    *CAT FX scalp ( locked ):

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