Are there really people who still think that the fundamentals are what drives the price? You�re missing 90% of the game if you only see what the economic calendar says. What matters is how big people react to the data, not the data itself. If everyone expected a rate hike and still the dollar falls, shouldn�t the alarm sound?
Anyone who thinks that �the market shouldn�t do that� has already lost. The market doesn�t have to do anything you believe. It just does what�s best for those who have the money. And if that means making you believe one thing and then sweeping you in the opposite direction, then it will be. Repeat with me: logic market.
It's not that I have the absolute truth, but it's that this movie I've seen a thousand times already. It creates an expectation, everyone piles up... and then the market does the opposite. The only way to survive this is to stop acting like the majority. The market is not designed to make you rich, but to get you out of the game.
It is curious that just when everyone was convinced that the USD was going to explode upwards, it went into reverse without looking back. Casuality? I do not believe in chance. I believe in manipulation based on flow of orders. And the data confirms it more and more.
Sometimes the problem is not the analysis, but the moment. You may be right in the direction, but if you come in when everyone comes in, your timing is rubbish. Professionals not only know where to go. They know when NOT to go, and that is worth more than any indicator.
Where are all those gurus who said EURUSD was going to 0.95 now? Absolute silence. Curious how they disappear when the market does not validate their theories. But they will return... when they have already positioned their orders in the opposite direction.
The funniest thing is that many still insist on seeking �technical� explanations for what happened. As if an EMA were going to give them the answers they don�t want to accept. The truth is simpler and more uncomfortable: they sold you a story and you believed it. The market charged you for that.
It is normal to feel frustrated, I know. We were all part of the flock once. The difference is in who accepts and learns it, and who gets caught in denial. Recognizing that the market overcame you is the first step to stop being a victim. But you have to swallow the ego first.
Think: if the movement were so obvious, why wouldn�t the banks come in with all of one? Why do they need to make so many �fintas�? Because without your liquidity, they can�t operate. So they give you an illusion of opportunity... and make you their counterpart.
It's fascinating how the market uses news as a tool for manipulation, not information. What should help you, actually confuses you more. And while you read headlines, others are reading command flows. There's the difference between reacting and anticipating.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote