Trading with the Swiss Franco: focus on changes

[NresnhS19]

Edited by the moderator

[jbesrdesju]

In the past, the Swiss Franco was strengthened when there was turbulence in the markets or financial tensions.Lately that has changed, and now it seems that Japanese is the currency refuge in times of crisis.If you think the financial collapse will continue, I would prefer to buy yen.The Swiss Franco will respond well, but he would not buy it.Its financing cost is high and does not have as much volatility as YEN.Only my humble opinion.

[Esndy]

Rogers's logic is that many traders sold ChF to finance Carry Trade operations, so when these operations get rid of, the CHF will rise.If he entered long before August 17, 2007, he is surely delighted with the results.The same with the JPY, another currency in which he said he is long.It is true that the CHF behaves well in times of crisis.I read that a Hedge Funds manager said that I would buy Chf in moments of risk aversion because "all who have dark secrets keep them in Switzerland."In addition, the President of the SNB recently commented that they plan to raise interest rates because the economy is strong.With the expectation that rates in the US continue to fall, I don't know if it's the best time to buy USD/CHF.

[NresnhS19]

I don't know what graphics you are seeing, but saying that the dollar is going to recover ground against the Swiss Franco seems like a joke.The trend is clear and everything indicates that the CHF will remain strong.But well, everyone with his movie, luck with that.

[NresnhS19]

Interesting analysis, although I see many assumptions and little evidence.The market does not forgive illusions, so I hope you have an exit strategy if things do not go as you expect.Here we will be to see what happens.

[NresnhS19]

It is always fun to read the opposites.The truth is that ChF has been a refuge for a long time, and I don't think that changes overnight.But well, if your analysis tells you that the dollar goes up, go ahead, make your bets.

[NresnhS19]

I appreciate the dedication that you put to this analysis, although I believe that the resilience of the Swiss Franco underestimate.Its economy is stable and its monetary policy remains more solid than that of the US at least, I hope you use tight stops.

[NresnhS19]

Here we go again with the eternal struggle between the optimists of the dollar and the pessimists of the financial system.I love seeing these extreme predictions, although they almost always end in anything.We will see who laughs at the end.

[NresnhS19]

Your cyclical approach is interesting, but blindly trusting cycles without considering macroeconomic events, it can be dangerous.What happens if the Fed changes its strategy from nothing?Or if Switzerland intervenes?Beware of the optimism bubble.

[NresnhS19]

I do not understand the desire to look for tops and bottoms in the market.Most of those who try that end up losing to the shirt.Wouldn't it be more sensible to follow the trend and look for strategic entry points?

[NresnhS19]

I like the conviction with which you talk about your strategies, but I would like to see more concrete numbers and less epic narratives.Trading is not a story of heroes and villains, it is a game of probabilities and discipline.

[NresnhS19]

I applaud your optimism, but history has shown us that betting against the Swiss frank rarely ends well.But well, if you are right, I'll congratulate you.If you are wrong, prepare for teasing.

[NresnhS19]

Ah, the eternal debate!Some swear that the dollar collapses, others that shoot.The reality is that nobody knows it with certainty.The only sure thing is that the market will give us the answer, and probably in the most painful way possible.

[NresnhS19]

It is curious how some analysts cling to their predictions as if they were absolute truths.Cycles can be useful, but they are not everything.Sometimes, we must admit that the market has the last word.

[NresnhS19]

If you are going to maintain a position for 10 years, I hope you have a holy patience and a very large bank account.The drawdown of such a strategy can be brutal, and not everyone survives to see the end of the cycle.

[NresnhS19]

As much as I love cycle theory, sometimes I wonder if it's not just an elegant excuse to justify losses.If everything continues to go down for months, are you still believing in the cycle or admitting that you are wrong?

[NresnhS19]

I appreciate passion in your analysis, but extreme trust can be dangerous in this business.Do not forget that the market has no mercy with anyone, even those who believe they have found the magical formula.

[NresnhS19]

Your analysis is interesting, although a bit idealistic.Do you really think the market will wait for you until 2017 to prove you right?Hopefully you have a plan B in case things do not come out as expected.

[NresnhS19]

This thread is getting good.Nothing as a discussion about the future of the dollar to see who really has solid arguments and who is only betting on faith.That wins the best.

[NresnhS19]

The truth is that no matter how much theory or analysis we do, the market will do what they want.The best thing we can do is adapt and stop trying to predict the unpredictable.

[NresnhS19]

If the dollar really strengthens against the Swiss Franco, it will not be for magical cycles or conspiracy theories.It will be because the Fed and the US economy do something that justifies that movement.Until then, be careful with illusions.

[NresnhS19]

I wonder if those who talk about 10 -year -old cycles ever have patience to wait so long.The majority changes their minds as soon as the price moves against it a couple of months.

[NresnhS19]

Your vision is interesting, but I still prefer to follow the price action instead of trying to predict the future.The market does not respect theories, it only respects liquidity and supply and demand.

[NresnhS19]

It seems that some here believe they can see the future with a glass ball.I do not doubt that there are patterns in the market, but saying that everything is written years in advance is a bit exaggerated, right?

[NresnhS19]

The funny thing about all this is that in a few months no one will remember these predictions.The market will have done what they want and everyone will have changed their speech to accommodate the new data.

[NresnhS19]

If I have learned something in years of trading, nobody has the absolute truth.Neither the fundamentalists, nor the technicians, nor those who study cycles.In the end, the only thing that matters is who drives your risk better.

[NresnhS19]

It is always entertaining to see how some traders cling to their theories even when the market shows them otherwise.Flexibility is key in this business, but it seems that some have a hard time learning.

[NresnhS19]

If you think the market follows predictable cycles, I invite you to review the history of the last 50 years.You will see that unexpected events have always changed the course at least expected.

[NresnhS19]

I love the security with which some here talk about their strategies.Hopefully the market respects them, because history has taught us not to forgive those who believe they have everything under control.

[NresnhS19]

10 year old cycles?It sounds good in theory, but real trading is not so clean or predictable.We will see how many survive the corrections before the great bullish movement that they expect arrives.

[NresnhS19]

We can talk everything we want about theories and cycles, but the truth is that the only thing that matters is the price action.If the market does not confirm your idea, the rest is only noise.

[NresnhS19]

If earning money in Forex were as easy as following predictable cycles, we would all be millionaires.The reality is that the majority loses because the market does not follow fixed rules.

[NresnhS19]

I like trust, but remember that the markets are full of trader tombs that also thought they are right.Humility and flexibility are worth more than any theory.

[NresnhS19]

You talk about cycles, but what about the intervention of central banks?If the SNB decides to intervene, all your theory leaves through the window.Do not underestimate the power of governments in the Forex.

[NresnhS19]

Trading is simple: buy what goes up, sells what goes down.But some prefer to complicate with endless analysis that only serve to justify bad decisions.

[NresnhS19]

If the market were as predictable as some believe here, banks would not spend millions on algorithmic models.It is not as easy as following lines in a chart.

[NresnhS19]

Trust is good, but stubbornness is dangerous.I hope you have an output plan if your dollar vision turns out to be wrong.

[NresnhS19]

If this analysis turns out to be correct, you will be a genius.If not, it will be another proof that the market mocks our predictions constantly.

[NresnhS19]

The market does not respect anyone's ego.Remember that when you see that your theory is not fulfilled as you expected.

[NresnhS19]

Good luck with your prediction.I will continue to operate with the trend and avoid marrying an idea for years.