Edited by the moderator
Edited by the moderator
In the past, the Swiss Franco was strengthened when there was turbulence in the markets or financial tensions.Lately that has changed, and now it seems that Japanese is the currency refuge in times of crisis.If you think the financial collapse will continue, I would prefer to buy yen.The Swiss Franco will respond well, but he would not buy it.Its financing cost is high and does not have as much volatility as YEN.Only my humble opinion.
Rogers's logic is that many traders sold ChF to finance Carry Trade operations, so when these operations get rid of, the CHF will rise.If he entered long before August 17, 2007, he is surely delighted with the results.The same with the JPY, another currency in which he said he is long.It is true that the CHF behaves well in times of crisis.I read that a Hedge Funds manager said that I would buy Chf in moments of risk aversion because "all who have dark secrets keep them in Switzerland."In addition, the President of the SNB recently commented that they plan to raise interest rates because the economy is strong.With the expectation that rates in the US continue to fall, I don't know if it's the best time to buy USD/CHF.
I don't know what graphics you are seeing, but saying that the dollar is going to recover ground against the Swiss Franco seems like a joke.The trend is clear and everything indicates that the CHF will remain strong.But well, everyone with his movie, luck with that.
Interesting analysis, although I see many assumptions and little evidence.The market does not forgive illusions, so I hope you have an exit strategy if things do not go as you expect.Here we will be to see what happens.
It is always fun to read the opposites.The truth is that ChF has been a refuge for a long time, and I don't think that changes overnight.But well, if your analysis tells you that the dollar goes up, go ahead, make your bets.
I appreciate the dedication that you put to this analysis, although I believe that the resilience of the Swiss Franco underestimate.Its economy is stable and its monetary policy remains more solid than that of the US at least, I hope you use tight stops.
Here we go again with the eternal struggle between the optimists of the dollar and the pessimists of the financial system.I love seeing these extreme predictions, although they almost always end in anything.We will see who laughs at the end.
Your cyclical approach is interesting, but blindly trusting cycles without considering macroeconomic events, it can be dangerous.What happens if the Fed changes its strategy from nothing?Or if Switzerland intervenes?Beware of the optimism bubble.
I do not understand the desire to look for tops and bottoms in the market.Most of those who try that end up losing to the shirt.Wouldn't it be more sensible to follow the trend and look for strategic entry points?
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote