Thread: Post your Best Long-Term Stock Chart

A few breakouts on the weekly. No place whatsoever at the present time.

Here is another utility title. I long DUK, WEC, and EXC, not sure how much more room I have to have but might add a little amount.

Daily and Weekly charts attached.

Originally Posted by ;

Here is one I am keeping a close eye on: SMG. Scott's Miracle Grow creates fertilizer, soil, and other farming products. They've also been quietly (or not so quietly based on who you talk to) been getting involved with the Pot company or products tangentially linked to marijuana. This may be an interesting approach since I think legalization is just round the corner. Two ways I'd play with this from a technical standpoint. Either buy now with a pretty tight prevent around $92 (or $90 if you want to give it more space) or...

RE: Post from 9/13 and 10/3...

FINALLY got SMG to break and close above $100. Might add on w/ a pullback, but for now will just sit tight (Long @ ~$95.5).

Here are 3 trades I was working on last night. I ended up putting some of these on (at slightly worse levels than that which I have signaled since both DUK and VRSK were up daily. The charts are somewhat busy...I used the blank space to decorate the choices chains I'm interested in as a hedge or as a speculation.

Additionally a disclaimer on DAL. This really is a strange one... I'm long a small amount from a few months past, but additionally embarking on some really out of the money options. There's a fantastic chance I will lose all of my money. Think of it kind of as a astrophe hedge... Implied vol belongs into the moon oil prices spike, or God Forbid some type of terrorism occasion.

Charts do not include today's price action, so a little stale...

$DUK - Extended w/ 83-85ish stop


$VRSK - $85/90 cease depending on risk tolerance. I'm buying stock several places


$DAL - Think a few of the calls places look cheap. Bias is to function as long w/ a few deep out of the money lottery-type places...

Originally Posted by ;

Medici - I recognize those charts -- From RealVision, right? Those guys put out some great stuff and their tradition (Adventures in Finance) actually gets some very good guests. I feel both of you raise the possibility of a fascinating paradox: that stocks are overvalued but increasing economic action (or synchronized global increase like I keep hearing about on TV) can keep the sport going more. Among those arguments that stocks are NOT overvalued is because interest rates are low. It's possible that the coordinated central bank tightening in the coming...

Yes, and concur on all points.

As to stock evaluation, yes, zero interest rates justify higher valuations, but how large? Even with zero interest, if you do your cash flows, your investment has to make sense. For areas of the market, that isn't the situation.

However, as you say, things have been out of balance for a good while, and they're able to keep being for a while longer. But not permanently. There will be considerable turmoil, but not just yet.

Medici - I recognize those charts -- From RealVision? Those guys put out some great stuff and their tradition (Adventures in Finance) actually gets some very good guests.

I feel both of you raise the possibility of a fascinating paradox: that stocks are overvalued but rising economic activity (or synchronized global increase as I keep hearing about on TV) could keep the sport going longer. One of the arguments that stocks are NOT overvalued is because interest rates are low. It's likely that the coordinated central bank tightening in the coming quarters, along with the changeover of the chairmanship of the Fed could lead to quicker rises in interest rates which would lower inventory multiples. Difficult to say what the exact alyst will soon be but obviously going off PE ratio might have you shorting long before the day of reckoning arrives.

So I am on high alert for a turning point, however as most of us know, The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Originally Posted by ;

I have tried shorting several stocks and there, but generally it's been a losing proposition. I was paging through a book over the weekend and found this great quote from Colm O'Shea out of Hedge Fund Market Wizards from Schwager. Take a look, I think that is an important point for anyone who finds out the US Equity markets overvalued and divorced. picture

There is a lot of concern in the atmosphere at the moment due to the high PE ratios on shares. I just read an article which observed the Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings (CAPE) has just been higher on two occasions, 1929 and before the dot.com bust.

I also heard somebody on the radio say that just about 5 shares are driving the US indices, with the remainder just holding their station ... which seemed like a worrying situation to me.

From the UK we've had 7 (?) Weeks of declining new automobile sales. If the exact same is true in the US then auto-makers might be a good opportunity. It appears difficult to think that a growing US economy along with a similar EU economy are a breeding ground for stock market disaster China has been jumping through some hoops in recent years. Quite some time ago a short was opened by George Soros on the SP500, also added quite a few weeks. I wonder if he is still 'in' ...?

A post-eagles super bowl triumph post. Had a few too many drinks so obviously need to post a few charts... Here's a couple. Enjoy folks. And BTW, do your homework, these may lose a lot of money -- particularly if the stock market starts dropping like a stone.

Use a stop loss in Any Way times...

Originally Posted by ;

A few breakouts on the weekly. No position in any at the moment. image image image image image

VAR was breaking out after hours now so I just wanted to see how these 5 names did from Nov 12. Turns out fairly well with the exclusion of AEP which has gotten slammed w/ all the Utility carnage of late...


AEP - $74.75 - $68.48 @ stop level (-8.4%)
VAR - $107.55 - today $126 - Huge movement today after hours ( 17.2%)
FLT - $180.55 - Now $208 ( 15.2%)
LEN - $58.71 - currently $71 ( 21%)
CBG - $41.53 - $45 ( 9.7%)

For comparison:
SPY - $258 - $283 ( 9.6%) - everybody looks like a genius when the SP is up daily...