Thread: AUD/USD

Get Australia . . RBNZ Chief economist is right about the money.

Https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/101...-dont-get-that

Australian banks are talking their own crap. The market is failing.

The US market is increasing but that doesnt mean Australia and NZ will.

The US cut hard and made some positive decisions

Originally Posted by ;

quote Clearly this Kitty still has Lots of lives left ;--RRB-

got 9 lives lol

I can see the majority of the retailers are short. Though their percentage gets smaller with every day, this remains a good reason for the pockets to push this pair up.
I remain LONG as long as the sale proportion of the retailers is higher than the buying ones.

It's been stuck in 0.784, I will try to sell from here

Anybody been watching the USD this year that is past? It's been in a death spiral...

Originally Posted by ;

quote Just as I am a specialized trader, I simply can't fathom any fundamental reason for a buyer of the currency at this degree. Anything is possible, but with a 40 pip daily range, it simply doesn't seem plausible that the Aussie will proceed another 500 pips in the next 30 trading sessions, especially after such a strong run up in December. Safe trading

It is your view sir and I respect your wish to go against this trend. I wish you good luck with this.
Now just a little math...
6 months equals 30 trading days.
500 pips / 30 days = 16.66 pips moderate gain upwards every day. That is potential.
And now just a tiny bit fundamentals...
You say you do not observe any fundamentals supporting buy AUD/USD.

Factors that push the US dollar down.
1. Trump.
2. The craziness around crypto currencies.
3. The taxation as well as the increasing debts reform in USA.
4. FED being impatient and persisting climbs despite inflation and salary issues.

Facros pushing AUD up.
1. Commodity prices increase.
2. Asian stocks heading higher and higher.
3. Japan and China printing economy outcomes.
4. Solid Australian Economy - maximum without recession.

And finally the technical analysis go in precisely the same way with the fundamental analysis.

Appearance, anybody of us can be wrong. But I am pleased to be able to express my view and hopefully this can assist the traders who understand the trend is your friend.

Cheers

Originally Posted by ;

quote It's your view sir ....Cheers

is there some reason for USD to go up?

Originally Posted by ;

quote is there some reason for USD to go up?

Eventually and that the US dollar will probably recover. However, I don't see it happening in the future.

Originally Posted by ;

quote It's your view sir and I respect your wish to go against the trend. I wish you good luck with that. Now just a little math... 6 months equals 30 trading days. 500 pips / 30 days = 16.66 pips average gain upwards per day. That is more than potential. And just a little bit fundamentals... You say you don't observe any fundamentals supporting buy AUD/USD. Factors that push the US dollar down. 1. Trump. 2. The craziness about crypto currencies. 3. The increasing debts as well as the taxation reform in USA. 4. FED being impatient and persisting climbs despite...

Could it arrive, yes - but to me Currency Market really is a game of probabilities. Weekly rsi was 38 when price was 75c, it is now a bit over 56. If price goes up yet another 350 pip without a major corrections rsi might be sitting around 74 with 150 pips to your tough goal. Last time weekly rsi on AU got above 74 was 2009. To me that suggests it is not a fantastic probability it will take place in 6 months. If nothing else stands in the way I imagine there are some resistance across the 8125 high from Sept 2017.

Originally Posted by ;

quote .... If nothing else stands in the way I imagine that there would be some resistance around the 8125 high from Sept 2017.

Exactly. There is a sub station at the weekly bullish channel. This sub station can stop that crazy bullish move at roughly 0.812x.

Let us see