Thread: Harmonic Dance

1/23/2013

Trades
I entered about midway, and got stopped out as it spiked down, to get 20 pips. For large drops, I really like to find that a swing line with all the endpoint of this fall, which didnt happen. Here, I also used a puny swing to try to specify the prz to get a rather large fall. Probably not a fantastic idea. On the flip side, I did line it up with the extension of a huge swing (but I believe I used the incorrect swing anyways, it would have still caused the exact approximate prz however )




PRZ
HereI used the huge swing to do some fib extension, that is good. But the swing I used did not work, it extended far below the prz anyways. So nothing got triggered, I should've used the correct swing (and I need to specify correct), see analysis section.



This prz never got actuated, it stalled before it entered itso it was invalid for me, because often it stalls until the prz then shoots through it. Occasionally it boils down, but I dont have rules for if it stalls before the prz, and entering the prz was my anticipation, so I did not enter.

This one I defined only if it went down. It was invalid after it spiked up over the point I used for my 0 percent mark for my extension. It was also invalid because I did not use a primary or dominant swing.

1/23/2013

PRZs that would've worked
Using the large swing and the extension shown would've worked if I took it directly when it spiked into it. If it stalled before it I can allow spikes.

1/23/2013
Analysis

I would love to test the prz that worked. I really defined a prz using the bigger swing right prior to the swing which worked. Is there a justifiion for using?

Watch here for the prz that worked.


I was considering doing something along the lines below. The small swing should go in the small hump in the middle, but I was debating whether it should go to the humongous swing up to the proper. Im not sure. But lets leave that behind.



Today, we will Attempt to approaches. First, we will try to define if price responded to the prz made by the huge swing or responded to the prz created by the small swing. We will find the prz is roughly the same and price responded there dramatically. See below.




Ultimately, we will try out this approach. Which swing, the large or small, is harmonically related to the main swings at the close past? If the two of them are related, then we've got no justifiion to use the small swing. However, if the small swing is the only one related, we've got our justifiion! Plus, its fine that the massive swing in the next image in this post really barely pokes below the prz that worked (the one we made with the small swing).

Here are the vertical distances which are most significant, with the large and small swing vertical distances to the left.


This is your huge lines compared to the lengths of the other lines. Not too persuasive.


This is the small lines compared to the period of the other lines. Notice the large and small swing arent really harmonically related, while the other swings beautifully line up! Nice, I believe we've got a prospective justifiion!




Discussion
One significant portion of harmonic concept states that waves traveling in vertical distances that are related through fibonacci ratios. However, on a time, I really do believe that the relevant vertial distances can alter. To put it differently, spans of swings before will become irrelevant. So to determine if they are relevant, you can see whether they are related through the fib ratios to the current price action swings. This may perhaps validate our analysis and warrant which swing at the far past to use in our confluence dimensions, if we will need to use such a swing (usually only when price is really dropping quickly ).

1/24/2013

Summary:

Trades: 1
Trades Won: 0
Trades Missing: 1
Web Profit: -0.1Percent
Trading Period: 9:30 - 10:30 CST

Synopsis
I Want to work on Which price action to expect at a prz. Sometimes it just goes right down right from the prz (and thats exactly what a prz is for right? )

Also, I need to work about where to offset impulses. Also, sometimes abcds are not completed, how do I detect this fatigue point?

1/24/2013

Trades
For this particular one, I believed it was going to turn around since the conclusion of the big impulse was nearby (see far left). In actuality, a heartbeat reacted to that level, so technically I was late in reacting to that level! I was nervous because I viewed it retrace into the 50% of the impulse that reached the conclusion of the big impulse, so it could have simply become the upstart of a new impulse isntead of the dying of momentum!

I pulled the trigger and got stopped out.


PRZ

This was based on the 161 extension of the large impulse, along with the 161 extension of the other impulses, AND the conclusion of an impulse leg. In the very least now it would be at rest even. But I did not pull the trigger since there wasn't any nice shooting star.

Analysis

The commerce I was already nervous about because the previous impulse leg hadn't completed yet, but I know that impulse legs do not finish when you have a twist around. On the flip side, I had no justifiion for a dramatic turnaround in terms of price action, which can be really usually a slow reversal of the whole trend. In any situation, there was a prz, which I didn't get till after I lost the first trade, that has been more high likelihood.

Questions (for end of week analysis):

How are impulse legs shortened when a turn around of this dominant trend occurs?
When can it be justified to discount the conclusion of an impulse leg?
Where should impulse legs be offset, when there are so many nearby lows?
Why and if can impulse legs extend into the 161.8 zone and then transcend the 127 zone? (see below picture)

1/25/2013

Summary:

Trades: 4
Trades Won: 0
Trades Missing: 4
Net Gain: -0.3%
Trading Period: 6:00 - 10:00 CST

Synopsis
I want to work on generating PRZs where the smaller harmonics converge with the larger harmonics, I took too many transactions based on smaller harmonics when there were potentially larger harmonics nearby which would overun them! Additionally, a sign of bigger harmonics at play is price pausing until it hits the prz. I'm encouraged that mr pip made profit today, same time and same currency (only 1 trade), its only my inexperience not the method!

This is the reason why I'm trusting my account is currently $10 and risking 1% of 10, so I can learn without losing much!

I have also officially convinced myself that waves traveling in harmonic ratios of each other, so thats definitely true.

1/25/2013


I shall only list 1 trade now which highlights the point above, because I am lazy. Alot of the przs were based on smaller harmonics, if I keep doing so I will place my smaller przs for subsequent days so I can keep a record and examine. But for now, nope.

Trades
As can be seen, I based my own prz on smaller harmonics, not to the bigger ones that could be valid. Of course, I used the huge swing down as a retracement, so which was a massive impulse I employed, however there were bigger up impulse waves that I will need to learn to take into account.

Analysis

Questions
1. How can I tell which larger harmonics are in drama, and then harmonics are too insignificant to perform with. Also, if are smaller harmonics really
significant, say that a harmonic that is half of the size of the biggest, but could still make profit on it ? How little is too little?
2. How can I tell when smaller harmonics will be reacted also?
3. How can I tell when 1:1 urge legs will be squashed (at major trend turn?)
4. So when can a leg be eligible as a 1:1 urge leg?

PRZ Reaction Analysis

Edit: upgraded this with just przs that I drew, and dont show how (I utilized more of dominant and main swings as suggested) (I went through it about two, ill explain it through weekend. Certainly im fitting, but thats okay for every one I have a fitted harmonic justifiion lol, which will afterwards be distilled into a few principles!


In this section I will'match przs' to the price action that already occured, with the hope I am able to improve my prz production in real time! I believe each dramatic price action is going to have a reason based on a prz. Of course there were many przs that I made that didn't function, but thats fine im here to find out what high quality przs are.