Yen-Trades (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY)
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Thread: Yen-Trades (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY)

  1. #1
    Hello all!

    I have noticed a lot of coverage on the GBP/JPY pair on this site however small to no coverage on the other two yen pairs. I'm 24 years old and have currently been trading fulltime for 6 weeks.

    I vary from trading different pairs and have been involved with trading /Y pair since November last year as I saw potential in it to grow. In February/March in which it had been in a consolidation phase I've held onto positions obtained at the 88 degree and liquidated them in 92.50 in early April.

    I am seeking to re-enter since I believe we may observe the 100 degree by the end of the year. To reiterate, USD/JPY will be medium-term whereas EUR/JPY I'm very pleased to trade for the short term as well.

    I will post fundamental and specialized analysis on this thread since when coping with Japan that there are a lot of fundamental forces that may elevate or suppress the Yen (politics, life insurance, fiscal year etc) therefore I believe it's very important to consider both aspects when placing a trade.

    ***
    Happy Hunting!

  2. #2
    After the election of the new Japanese prime minister Yukio Hatoyama, Japan has been awaiting, optimistic for a reform of the current market. The truth remain however that Japan stays shrouded in deflation and that a strong yen is counter productive to the Japanese market.

    Short-term risk aversion because of the Greece/Euro crisis could lead to some unwinding of Yen short positions nevertheless medium-long term the only way to get Japan forward is to conduct a loose monetary policy which should significantly weaken the non - that would be done by intervention into the FX markets from the BoJ.

    Additionally Japanese life insurers have expressed their desire to boost unhedged foreign bond exposure which should also weaken the Yen significantly.

    That I intend to play the rise of the USD/YEN as follows:

    Produce a large long position of dollar/yen at levels varying from 88-93 (buying on any drops ) and closing part of the position to get a profit short-term while keeping the remainder and riding out the longer-term increase to 100 by the year end (I've not yet determined whether to put a trailing stop loss on the egic long positions), all of my transactions will be done in blocks of 500k, shutting out 200k short-term and driving the 300k out.

    I hope you guys find this journal useful, please feel free to take me any questions or comments!

  3. #3
    What are you visiting long duration for E/J? Im visiting 129-130 based on weekly

  4. #4

  5. #5
    SeszesCares8985
    Guest
    Where's gone USD / JPY? King of those candles?

  6. #6
    Okay so let's get started, below is a chart of the daily USD/JPY.

    Technically, these past couple of days that the pair has gained enough momentum to break through the pivotal 93.80 degree (January 2010 high) so provided that it stays above this amount, we can see a retest of the April drops at 94.80, initially it must cap the increase and the bulls should take a rest at the level, allowing it to retrace a bit (possibly back down to 93.80 support) that is a good entry level for another push upward.

    Beneath 93.80 is a more neutral theme and should find good support at the 200ema/50ema (round the 92.00 level). Beneath 92.00 would turn the perspective negative.

    The favoured medium-term situation is a push over the 94.80 degree en route to 97.80 and finally 99.84 (a couple of months down the street ).

    I am holding long positions at these levels:

    300k at 91.80
    300k at 92.50

    I am seeking to exit the longs at 94.80 and re-enter short to a retracement from that level.

    Will post up fundamentals on this pair later tonight (additionally eur/jpy)

    ***
    happy hunting

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