Hi folks!!
After a few months I have resolved to open a trading journal...I'm not a trading guru, I'm not a professional trader, also I'm not instructing nothing with this journal... the objective is only to monitor my trading days, I'm sure that a public journal can assist me. . .not with specialized abilities but with psicological abilities. . .it can allow me to be picky and disciplinated.
English is not my native language. . .so I apologize for mistakes in what I will write here. .
CHART TYPE:
I will use here just Renko chart kind. I'm interested by this type of price rapresentation, I have started to use it , I have tried to understand all factors beside this chart kind, looking for an advantage.
Renko has advantages and disadvantages, this is the reason because learning to exchange Renko requires many hours of viewing price movements...
Renko can spot trends very well, and may spot brief time alteration very well, it's only price predied, it does not have any timeframe.
The disadvantage is that Renko is a little lagging, since you see a new brick just when the price has done the transfer, and it has a built-in bad risk/reward ratio.
For example: within an upmove, it is going to take 10pips to create a new up brick, but it is going to take -20pip to earn a new brick.
STATISTICAL PROBABILITY:
I have spent a hour to examine statistical probability over few months and over different pairs, my results imply that everytime a reversal occurs, we've got a 68% probability to earn a new brick at the same direction.
So. . .if we carry all signs. . .we will be right 68% of those times, and this at a pure mechanical way.
Clearly this is not enough!!!
68% x 10 (pips gain) = 680 and 32% x 20 (pips loss) = 640, considering disperse and slippage we will have a return close to 0 or a loss...
I have tryied a lot of indiors seeking to push up these numbers, my judgment is that there's not any indy that may mechanically enhance the probabilities.
I have attained an 85% hit rate on a pair utilizing some moving average filters, but performing a serious optimization, that differs for every pair. I really don't like optimizations since they work well in the past. . .but not later on...
So..the only way to enhance the numbers..is using our trading abilities.
By way of example, taking trades just in the direction of the immediate trend, attempting to follow the price movement flow, the momentum of this transfer, and utilizing affirms, resistances, trendlines and breakout technics.
With common sense, discipline and patience that the probability can improve to some 85/90% hit rate.
THE GOAL:
My goal is really very very small: typical 10 net pips every day (only 1 10pips Renko brick), avoiding GREED.
I will exchange ONLY through London and NY session.
This method is technically really straightforward, but I have found that greed took me in troubles in the last months with this trading style.
If I won't see good PA or if I won't be mentally calm. . .some afternoon I will not trade.
THE PLAN:
This is my plan, I will begin with a 10.000$ demo account and I'll attempt to create 10 pips a day using 1 mini lot for each 1.000$ of funds, therefore I will begin using 1 standard lot (10 mini lots).
When and IF my funds will achieve 11.000$ I will use 1.1 lots
When and IF my funds will achieve 12.000$ I will use 1.2 lots
And so on...
If I will increase my funds...I will found a real account, and I will begin with fantastic caution, testing the waters, since in actual trading we have to take care of the broker. . .with the transaction fills, slippage, requotes. . .etc...
daily I'm testing new ideas utilizing Renko, therefore it may be that I will add new ideas for this journal.
Will I hit my goal??
Or can I miserably fail??
I really don't know... anyway this egy is worth a try!!