Alv Trading Journal - Price Action w/ Sentiment - Page 3
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Thread: Alv Trading Journal - Price Action w/ Sentiment

  1. #21
    Sentiment Analysis
    Wrap Up News:
    http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...erman-economy/
    -Bad EU condition (as expected)

    http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...the-sidelines/
    -No change on FOMC. Mean easing will continue as long as employment remains weak
    -Reduced Growth expectancy from BoC
    -there was a greek MOU escape that hold a bit EU downside rally yesterday

    Orders:
    fiber: 1.2900 barrier
    aussie: 1.0200 barrier

    Upcoming News:
    UK Prelim GDP - much better - 15:30
    UK FSA Wheatley's Testimony - 16:15
    UK Tucker's Speech - 17:15

    US Data News - better
    19:30
    -Core Durable Good Orders
    -Unemployment Claims
    -Durable Good Orders
    21:00
    -Pending Home Sales

    Market Forecast:
    EU don't have any significant news now, may chase barriers if all the market feel risk averse. Buyers out of Greek MOU leak will defend the price however.

    UK Prelim GDP on 15:30 will earn a good starting movement. There's M3 money supply on 15:00. So, market watch on 15:00 may provide a good reward.

    Another market watch is when USD news out on 19:30. Even though the last news is on 21:00, 3 indiors on 19:30 provide more info than the last one. So market movement might already begin on 19:30 and is a must-watch.

    PA Analysis
    Key S/R:
    AUD/USD
    -Still continuing yesterday's forecast. Currently not in consolidation
    EUR/AUD
    -Still continuing yesterday's forecast. Currently not in consolidation
    EUR/GBP
    -Upside: 0.8120, 0.8150
    -Downside: 0.8040, 0.8020

    High TF Trend:
    AUD/USD: Up-Ranging
    EUR/AUD: Down
    EUR/GBP: Up

    Last PA Sentiment:
    AUD/USD:
    -Sentiment: Up
    -Larger Sentiment: Up
    EUR/AUD:
    -Sentiment: Down
    -Larger Sentiment: Down
    EUR/GBP
    -Sentiment: Down
    -Larger Sentiment: Neutral

    Market Watch:
    AUD/USD
    Preferable motion: Up
    Key level: -

    EUR/AUD
    Preferable motion: Down
    Vital level: -

    EUR/GBP
    Preferable motion: Mixed
    Key level: upward - 0.8095 w/ target @ 0.8120; Down - 0.8075 w/ target @ 0.8040

    Conclusion
    Initial market watch is on 15:00, that would be to observe EU and UK, pair is EUR/GBP with key level at 0.8095 upside down and 0.8075 downside. The most likely point is 0.8125 for upside and 0.8050 for downside.

    Second market watch is on 19:30. Aussie and eur/aud is going to be updated shortly as the pairs come into consolidation. (at least before US News Data)

  2. #22
    Update:
    EUR/GBP
    -Preferable movement: Down
    -Key level:
    Down - 0.8080 w/ goal @ 0.8040, most likely point 0.8050
    Up - 0.8100 w/ goal @ 0.8120 most likely point 0.8125

    EUR/AUD
    -Preferable movement: None
    -Key amount:
    Up - 1.2552 w/ goal @ 1.2580, most likely point 1.2575.
    Down side main amount is at 1.2500, need another (at least small) consolidation after the signature.
    Risk-reward ratio in both management currently is not good enough. Need another PA..

  3. #23
    Sentiment Analysis
    Wrap Up News:
    http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...sie-downunder/
    -RBNZ currently not need easing, could cut rate if needed
    -BoC's qe9 is in sight, november

    http://www.scotiafx.com/Chart_Feed/FX1.pdf
    -US$ may begin getting weaker as global growth prognosis stabilize (but don't expect it too soon)

    Orders:
    fiber: 1.3000
    yen: 80.50 obstruction
    aussie: 1.0200 obstruction

    Upcoming News:
    US GDP - better - 19:30

    Market Forecast:
    Well, US GDP is your final important news from this week. I think there's something strange from yesterday US Data. The number was good and it's not job related, but the price (fiber and aussie) was going down. In risk-on-risk-off environment, it ought to be up except for your occupation data because Fed will cease easing when job is getting better. I think risk-on-risk-off in USD is starting to fall apart, which is not regarded as safe haven anymore

    So after that, any news outcome from GDP will make an unkown movement to the price. It is better to wait for the price action.


    PA Analysis
    Crucial S/R:
    AUD/USD
    -Upside: 1.0340, 1.0395 - 1.0410
    -Downside: 1.0290, 1.0235

    High TF Trend:
    AUD/USD: upward

    Last PA Sentiment:
    AUD/USD
    -Sentiment: balance
    -Bigger Sentiment: down

    Market Watch:
    AUD/USD
    Preferable movement: more to the upside
    Key level:
    Up - 1.0340 w/ goal @ 1.0410, most likely point 1.0375.
    Away - 1.0303 w/ goal @ 1.0235, most likely point 1.270.


    Conclusion
    The US GDP is your final Opportunity to trade this week. News Result-Price Movement correlation is unknown. Better to wait for price action.

    From a standpoint of RRR, upside breakout is a lot better than downside. The actual key level for downside is in fact quite far, that's 1.0290, (1.0303 is just a local keypoint). Not to mention that there is barrier at 1.0200. It is too far too attain from current price, hence may find an extremely likely rejection. That is why most probably point is only 1.0270 (20 pip only from 1.0290, although the stop loss is 50 pip from 1.0290 to 1.0340). If we would like to hope that aussie chase the obstacles, at least it requires a very far from anticipation GDP result to arrive. However, for some reason, downside, is still tradable, that's if the news come out rather far from expected.

    Okay wait for price action after the news and observe this amount:
    Crucial level:
    Up - 1.0340

    If far from expected, comprise:
    Down - 1.0303

  4. #24
    Sentiment Analysis
    Wrap Up News:
    http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcement...2/k121030a.pdf
    -Japan asset buying and lending software extended to 11 trln JPY
    -UK Economic condition is good
    -great italy bond market

    http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pipono...its-armor.html
    -May German beginning to collapse?

    Http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...erican-wrap-3/
    -ECB: initial sign of retrieval

    Orders:
    fiber - 1.3000 (upside)
    aussie - 1.0200 (much disadvantage )

    Upcoming News:
    AU News Data - worse - 07:30
    -Bulding Approvals
    -Private Sector Credit

    EU News Data - mixed into neutral
    -German Retail Sales 14:00
    -Greek Discussion 14:00
    -French Consumer Spending 14:45
    -French PPI 14:45
    -Italian Unemployment Rate 16:00
    -CPI Flash Estimate 17:00
    -Unemployment Rate 17:00

    CA GDP exactly the same as preceding - 19:30

    US News Data - marginally better except for crude oil (worse)
    -Employment Cost Index 19:30
    -US Treasury Refunding Announcement 20:00
    -Chicago PMI 20:45
    -Crude Oil Inventories 21:30

    Market Forecast:
    The EU News appears risk hunger for in emergency countries (but not so great for DE and FR) and ECB says there's the first sign of recovery. The condition is still in worse, but can lead a leap for EU, since if it's really beginning to recover, could be a good time to start to buy EU (really subjective in this situation ). Nevertheless, it's better to remain neutral until further growth sign is showing.

    Today's program is a bit full, though most of it aren't having a huge effects. EU movement begins from 14:00. A lead may be made by the conversation of greek . Though a trade taken from this news may make a good reward, the risk is still too high: there are nonetheless some news left before the Unemployment Rate on 17:00 at least. So it is better to remain tight before 17:00.

    The program is continued by CA and US News. Market watch for US News is on 20:45 after Chicago PMI (just after US available ). It could make a some good movement. Same as preceding CA GDP might not make a movement that is good. Nevertheless, it's not advisable to watch while awaiting the US market view.

    PA Analysis
    Crucial S/R:
    AUD/USD
    -Upside: 1.0395-1.0410, 1.0475
    -Downside: 1.0340, 1.0290
    EUR/AUD
    -Upside: 1.2550, 1.2630
    -Downside: 1.2450, 1.2410

    High TF Trend:
    AUD/USD: Up - Ranging
    EUR/AUD: Down

    Last PA Sentiment:
    AUD/USD
    -Sentiment: equilibrium
    -Larger Sentiment: down
    EUR/AUD
    -Sentiment: equilibrium
    -Larger Sentiment: down

    Market Watch:
    AUD/USD
    Preferable movement: Down
    Crucial level:
    Down - 1.0340 w/ target @ 1.0290, probably point 1.0290.

    EUR/AUD
    Preferable movement: Down
    Key level:
    Down - 1.0245 w/ target @ 1.2360, probably point 1.2370.

    Conclusion
    Currently, pairs movement aren't intriguing. General risk is mixed, but more to risk on. EU marketwatch start on 14:00, but trade after 17:00. US marketwatch start on 20:45. The degree is going to be updated afterwards before 14:00.

  5. #25
    Update

    PA Analysis
    Essential S/R:
    EUR/GBP
    -Upside: 0.8075, 0.8100, 0.81200
    -Downside: 0.8045, 0.8020, 0.8000
    EUR/CAD
    -Upside: 1.2980, 1.3015
    -Downside: 1.2900, 1.2840, 1.2800

    Trend Perception:
    EUR/GBP:
    -Trend: Down
    -H4 Reg Trend: Down
    EUR/CAD:
    -Trend: Up
    -H4 Reg Trend: Ranging

    Last PA Sentiment:
    EUR/GBP
    -Sentiment: Away
    -H4 Reg Sentiment: Away
    EUR/CAD
    -Sentiment: Down
    -H4 Reg Sentiment: Equilibrium

    Market Watch:
    EUR/GBP
    Preferable Motion: Down
    Essential level:
    Down - 0.8045 w/ Goal @ 0.8000, most likely point 0.8010.

    EUR/CAD
    Preferable movement: Down
    Key level:
    Down - 1.2940 w/ target @ 1.2840, probably point 1.2860.

  6. #26

  7. #27
    Sentiment Analysis
    Wrap Up News:
    http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pipono...uld-rally.html
    -Sandy Can make a Great US$ rally

    Orders:
    Not out yet

    Upcoming News:
    UK Nationwide HPI - better - 14:00
    UK Manf PMI - Marginally worse - 16:30

    US News Data - Worse Anyhow Consumer Confidence
    -ADP NFP 19:15
    -Unemployment Claim 19:30
    -CB Consumer Confidence 21:00
    -ISM Manf PMI 21:00

    AU PPI - better - 07:30

    Market Condition:
    Yesterday hasn't got much important news. Market remains in ranging wildy ranging until today. Today's news anticipation is a bit risk averse.

    Current Market Condition: a bit risk appetite
    EoD Market Condition: mixed

    Ranging motion is nevertheless expected for now, but tomorrow NFP could earn a breakout and also give a fantastic market motion. So it's best to wait for tomorrow to exchange

    PA Analysis
    Essential S/R:
    AUD/USD
    -No shift
    EUR/AUD
    -No shift
    EUR/GBP
    -However continuing yesterday prediction

    Last PA Sentiment:
    AUD/USD
    -No shift
    EUR/AUD
    -No shift
    EUR/GBP
    -No shift

    Market Watch:
    AUD/USD
    Key level:
    Up - 1.0395 w/ target @ 1.0475, probably point 1.0460.
    Away - 1.0340 w/ target @ 1.0290, probably point 1.0315.

    EUR/AUD
    Key level:
    upward - 1.2550 w/ target @ 1.2680, probably point 1.2650.
    Away - 1.2450 w/ target @ 1.2325, probably point 1.2390.

    EUR/GBP
    Key level:
    upward - w/ target @, probably point 1.2390.
    Away - 0.8020 w/ target @ 0.7965, probably point 0.7975.

    Conclusion
    General market condition remains'mixed to desire'. But anyway the price movement is uninteresting. It's best to await NFP for US$ associated pairs. For different pairs, UK News may earn a movement after 16:30 Manf PMI. While AUD could earn a small motion after tomorrow 07:30 PPI. Nevertheless, Ranging motion is expected, and fading out key SR may work much better.

    Preferable Direction
    AUD/USD: Not preferable to exchange (RRR for drawback is not good)
    EUR/AUD: Down
    EUR/GBP: Down

  8. #28
    Sentiment Analysis
    Wrap Up News:
    http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...-expectations/
    -yet Another EU indecisive action

    http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...tart-the-week/
    -Spain jobless rise

    http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...re-the-storms/
    -EU may still in crisis for another 5 Decades

    http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...press-markets/
    -cut rates!

    Market Orders:

    Upcoming News:
    -AU Cash Rate - worse - 10:30

    Market Condition:
    Current Market Condition: Risk Appetite
    Expected EoD Market Condition: Risk Appetite

    I am trading the money rate: allow it to operate if no reduction, Have a small profit if else

  9. #29
    PA Analysis
    Last PA Sentiment:
    AUD/USD
    -Sentiment: Up
    -Larger Sentiment: Range
    EUR/AUD
    -Sentiment: Down
    -Larger Sentiment: Down

    Market Watch:
    AUD/USD
    Key SR:
    Up - 1.0385 w/ Goal @ 1.0475, most likely point -.
    Down - 1.0365 w/ target @ 1.0340, most likely point 1.0350.

    EUR/AUD
    Essential SR:
    Up - 1.2340 w/ target @ 1.2370, most likely point -.
    Down - 12320 w/ target @ 1.223, most likely point -.


    Conclusion
    Preferable Direction
    AUD/USD: upward
    EUR/AUD: Down

    Could scalp when it is not in more powerful direction. Most probably AUD will get more powerful if there's absolutely no rate cut because EU is expected to be a risk averse (greatest for EUR/AUD pairs of course). Because as we understand it, this rate cut is expected from 2 month before, but ends RBA consistently provide no cut.

  10. #30
    Sentiment Analysis
    Wrap Up News:
    http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pipono...ith-in-qe.html
    http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pipono...year-high.html
    -Global market risk averse

    http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pipono...-now-what.html
    -Could Greece be Spared?

    Http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...t-im-on-about/
    -German expansion may getting weaker in winter

    http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...-and-spending/
    -Development momentum to be weak on 2013
    -US exports hit record high

    http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...fter-election/
    -Merkel sees sign of overcoming crisis

    Market Orders:
    N/A

    Upcoming News:
    None significant

    Market Condition:
    USDX: Up
    Dow: Down
    Gold: Up
    DAX: Down
    FTSE: Down

    EU is currently in bad condition. Germany oncoming crisis may give fat reduction. No need additional explanation, EU is at a total risk averse. Maybe risk appetite will come when Greece / Spain has been spared (not yet near that of course). In other continents, US economy sentiment after elections seems in risk appetite. Anyway, Global market is in downturn. 2013 maybe a fantastic year to market everything. Lol

    Current Market Condition: Risk averse
    Expected Market Condition: US risk appetite

    Market Movement Characteristic:
    -There is high chance that market can move in Range movement. Market may chase near orders

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