Trend Following Quest
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Thread: Trend Following Quest

  1. #1
    This is the area where I will collect and record the results of my trading system as required by the method as described below.

    The Method:

    In order to understand if a system works or not, one must specify it clearly, in advance, and when prepared, trade it attentively for a defined amount of time and without departing in the defined rules. Then investigate whether the inner mechanisms of the system are secure or not, and according to the results correct or enhance it.
    That is nothing else than the scientific egy:
    1. Problem =gt;.... Detect a new trend in order to trade it gt; repeat the wave once you view it. 2. Hypothesis =gt;.... A trend, like a wave has its own length and we want to trade in its leadership for a maximum.... Amount of time. For this, we must input the earlier possible and remain with it as long as the trend
    .... remains valid. A trend is detected when the current price is greater (for an up trend),
    .... Or lower (for a down trend) compared to its recent historical value =gt; Surf the wave the longer you can
    ....... But it's OK to float from time to time and much more...
    3. Experiment =gt;.... Place the hypothesis at work by doing real trades =gt; Quit talking and go surfing... 4. Data =gt;.... Collect and analyze the results in a journal =gt; See the videos and also have fun... 5. Improve/Correct =gt;. Keep what works, remove what doesn#8217;t, add new ideas and go to stage 3 gt; Boost your surf...
    As a trader, I've identified 2 jobs and targets for me:
    1. To utilize this method with the goal of determining if my system works or not.2. To respect the trading principles in almost any circumstance as not doing so will invalidate the initial aim.
    The System:

    That is a journal where I want to list my trades and performances so that I #8217;m willingly not exposing the entirety of my machine . That being said, I will give a word about its general mechanisms so perhaps you get any inspiration out of them but as you will see, there's not anything new here, this is just trend after in its purest form. How to detect a new trend and enter a transaction.
    This is done by the exceptional analysis of current price and previous prices. No elaborate indior is used here. After the price is greater that it has been for a specific time period, there's strength and we could be in a new up trend so we want to buy. After the price is reduced that it has been for a specific time period, there's weakness so we might be in a new down trend and we want to sell. So in short, and to the contrary of a lot of dudes out there which attempt to buy low and sell high, I buy high to market higher and sell low to buy reduced.
    - The best way to remain in the trend for a maximum of time?
    When a new trend is detected based on stage 1, we input and when the trend reverses, also as specified in stage 1 we depart, and as absurd as this new trend could seem at the beginning, I initiate a trade in the opposite direction. It appears simple and it is, and this is the gist of the system. -
    The Design:

    Technique =gt; Price action.Indiors =gt; None.Pairs traded =gt; EURUSD, CADJPYTime frame =gt; 1 hour and up.Stop reduction =gt; None, the principles say when to depart.

    The Inspiration:

    Be patient.Respect the risk and stay humble.Avoid being involved plogically.Follow the principles rather than the conclusions or fear, greed or hope.Give focus on detail.Don't expect to be right every time and when incorrect, take your losses and move on.Leave the agitation for the others, instead trade slow, become a turtle.React to price movements and follow, price says it all, no need for a story.Buy Power, Sell weakness.Rest and also have good sleep.

    Done talking the talk, let us walk the walk...
    .

    The Results:

    Month.... Start Balance.... End Balance... Profit.... Return.... Pr Factor... Win Rate... Appreciation April 18. . ... $169... $280 ... $111... 65.7%. . . ... 2.53 . ... . 50.0 percent.... Luck May 18... ... . . $280... $620... $340... 121.6 percent... 2.53. ... . 52.5 percent.... Luck
    .
    ShortCuts:
    .
    Season 1The Lucky Episode 1 - The Luck of the beginnerThe Lucky Episode 2 - A bit more than just luck

  2. #2

  3. #3
    Closed Trades.

    Trade 1. Launched trading my method on April 2 and only half of the down trend seen can be captured. It was a good trade that lasted 4 days for a total of 47 pips with a profit of 23$. The entire down trend lasted from March 26 to April 6 for a total of approximately 260 pips.

    Trade 2. A good case study as it was a near flawless trade where almost all of the pips were captured in this little up trend.Trade and trend lasted 5 days for a total of 125 pips and $73 profit


    Trade 3 (probe).Failed with -40 pips however without much consequences for the account as the risk was adjusted and only $4 were lost.

  4. #4

    Trade 4 (probe).This is a tiny probe trade I use to feel the markets management. The simple fact that it triumphed, even with hardly any pips means the market has shifted direction, so we trade about the contrary direction, that is the hypothesis.
    Trade lasted 5 times for a 3 pips ($0.26) profit.


    Trade 5 (sister).This is exactly what I will call a (small ) sister trade. The purpose here is not to ride all the trend but instead capture some pips early at the trend, This is a tiny optimization to my system. The other (grand) sister trade that's the standard tradem was implemented at the exact same exact moment and will try to ride this new trend as per the rules.Trade lasted 12 min for a 16 pips ($9.60) profit.

  5. #5

    Trade 6.
    Failed up trend ended with 13 pips ($4.96) profit in 28hrs.

    Trade 7.
    Sister trade initiated on a new down trend Succeeded with 16 pips ($11.20) profit in 1h53.

  6. #6

    Trade 8. Failed down tendency using -24 pips ($12) reduction in 23 hours.

    Trade 9. Took the train late on this one but still managed to extract 64 pips ($18) profit in 9 days from a 400 pips upward tendency!

  7. #7
    Paying the bills...


    Trade 10. Failed up trend with a loss of -26 pips (-$13.90) in 22 hours.

    Trade 11. Failed trade 10 sister commerce with a loss of -27 pips (-$20.10) in 22 hours.TP was put in 1.2401! Missed for 1 pip, no fortune this time!

  8. #8

    Trade 12. Sister trade succeeded with 16 pips ($9.60) profit in 6 months.

    Trade 13. Succeeded in ching this down tendency for a total of 127 pips ($50.76) profit in 4 days.Note that the tendency is maybe not terminated yet but I must respect my principles for getting outside.

  9. #9
    Episode 1 - The Luck of the novice 74percent

    there's nevertheless one trading day left but that I shall close the month with this end week.

    A fantastic trading month traded by the principles where I let profits run and cut losses short.

    That said, I just consider that as pure luck, but despite the luck of the newcomer, I#8217;m a bit proud of everything I did this month, maybe not because of profits but instead because I respected my trading principles and didn't self-sabotaged! Now, it#8217;s just a matter of repeating that following month, and next, and following...

    The profit was over what I was expecting that could mean that my risk is far too high for a turtle trading system but according to what I have observed, I will keep things as they are now and wait and see. As long as my risk factor doesn#8217;t hamper too much I shall continue as is until I see I#8217;m too large, I hope without blowing up the account.

    I'm a greater believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it#8221;
    - Thomas Jefferson

    Month stats



  10. #10

    Trade 14. Failed down trend trade with a loss of -25 pips (-$9.97) in 7 days.


    Trade 15. Successful sister trade in a maybe new up trend, with a total of 15 pips ( $10.08) in fourteen days.

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