Simple Mean Reversion - Page 3
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Thread: Simple Mean Reversion

  1. #21
    Been testing this vigorously for a few days and it always results in account blowing at any point. Unless the creator of the system has a way to mitigate a 1 way market this system won't ever work. I believe you can take some risk off with tailoring about news events, but that alone won't cut it.

    The only option is to cap the rankings it takes I presume which may be tested if it had been an input in the EA..can you add that to the EA??

    Appears like thread is dead so I will leave it at that.

  2. #22
    Hello Alphaomega, if I'm not wrong you have substituted you profile picture right? Final time is Alpha and Omega sign. And I know you're a genius when you have a discussion with CP or perhaps when CP refer to a post, I do not remember exactly.

    Okay I'm not a genius like you, therefore I believe it'll be considerably more time for me to grasp your lesson, but I'll try. Please be patient. .

    Thank you for sharing, btw.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hello, and thanks for stopping by! No matter if you're new or old member of the forum, read here and that I guarantee you will not be let down! From my standpoint this thread is the normal continuation of the thread Greater Edge within a Single Candlestick”. . .Range. The range is simply (large -- non ) for the current cycle. Mid - this really is the middle of the range. Or, mid=high-(range*0.5); Or (high low)/2; sqrt(t) - This really is the square root of time. ... And I guarantee you that if...
    Wow wow... thank you for creating this great thread alpha omega, the first and the last...
    Sqrt(t) is quite intriguing, but unfortunately I am weak in math... like on image below... Need to finish some house functions. So busy at the moment. Beginning by studying a few of your great things is my first plan and attempt to get as far as I can with my feeble mind... The Point is, I am sure this will be quite valuable for me personally...
    I understand my Cyclic daily tasks take up a lot of my own time, so I can not participate much in this long run, but I will stop by every time I can and try to combine your thought with other ideas, I am sure it will give me more success...
    Best regards.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Wow wow... thank you for creating this fantastic thread alpha omega, the first and the last... Sqrt(t) is quite interesting, but unfortunately I am weak in math... like on image below... must complete some house functions. Quite busy at the moment. Starting by studying some of your great things is my very first plan and attempt to get as much as I can with my weak mind... The Point is, I am sure this will be quite valuable for me... I understand, my Cyclic daily jobs occupy a lot of my time, therefore I can not engage much in this close...
    Was that from Pythagoras? He had been one of the first traders of the famous Greek Drachme.

  5. #25
    Here is an excel file, you can use for calculating the distances, at which stage to put in a trade.

    You have to input the beginning of the afternoon:
    a) The Open
    b) The dailyrange = Average daily range over 20 days
    c) alfa = a percentage. It's fixed at 10% at the moment. This percent is taken of the dailyrange.
    ==gt; ADR = alfa * dailyrange.

    Per hour is calculated the reduced range and the upper range.
    Upper range = OPEN ADR * SQRT(hour)
    Lower range = OPEN - ADR * SQRT(hour)

    This provides a simple worksheet for the day. Here it is possible to check where price needs to be in a certain time
    of day in order to go into a trade.

    The current excel file has the data for gbpjpy of today. The open was 150.16 and the average daily range is 1.197 (119 pips).
    Alfa = 0.10

    This also results in a lower border of 149.74 in 12 o'clock. Price must be 149.74 or reduced in order to buy this.
    However, it didn't reach this level, so we do not buy at the moment.
    https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachm...1577906315.xls

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote... A trading egy that purely depends upon price:time show on just 1 chart (one pair and one timeframe) will not survive more than 3 decades. 3 Years is somewhat arbitrary to eliminate the human luck factor and to incorporate discipline in implementation with optional style. There is not a single automated egy that could last for 3 yrs in retail forex that's based on one chart one pair one time. .
    VEEFX; there is 1 egy that satisfies your criteria above; and it's been working indefinitely; market earning.

    Liquidity providers (including banks) are doing it since the inception of these markets. Their egy only cares about current bid/ask, and forthcoming news events (where they decrease their risk exposure).

    That said; you do have a point in using a egy not lasing more than 3 decades. This is because to triumph in trading; you need to adapt; and enhance the egies all the time. In 3 years period; the egy remains running; but due to the advancements made; it is perhaps not regarded as the identical egy. The edge is the exact same. It's either:
    - momentum based (aka trend after )
    - mean reversion
    - market making

    CP for instance; uses momentum. (hints: His egy Won't work on pairs Aside from GU)

  7. #27
    VEEFXthis is for you.
    Once I've prommissed to youpersonally,
    to explain to you just how you can see a range?
    Can you recall that?
    Unable to talk about a chart now.
    Some smart wolves sniffing around here.

    I shall just simply clarify it.

    In a strong fashion, the price does not brake previous/last top/bottom.
    Range is opposite to that.
    First range signal is a false break of an opposite top/bottom.
    More of this follows shortly after.
    You are in a range now.

    I trust you will appreciate my honesty.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Thanks MZ. I certainly remember and appreciate the honest response. I've learnt a lot because I posted that question on your thread. What is your take on the 12 queries I posted before. My reply is a resounding Yes all the 12 questions. AO answer is opposite of what my research tells me. Just like everything on the market, it always depends on the trader, what they see and the way they respond. It is an essential element for market to exists I guess:--RRB-
    the majority of your queries have cloudy definition.
    My first premise was that by win/loss ratio that you mean gross profit divided by gross loss. Also known as profit element. If this is the case then my answers stay as they are.

    But if you mean percent (percent ) of profitable trades, then the answers will be yes. BUT again, together with the premise that all trades have equidistant fixed stops and targets. Otherwise you will receive different supply.

    Nevertheless under this condition the motives for the placement of the trades is irrelevant. Regardless of the egy, IF you put random trades in all directions you will receive random outcomes. Period. (50:50)-cost. No escape from this!

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote What is your take on the 12 questions I submitted earlier.
    I have found, for myself, trading is a sport of:

    Tops
    Center
    Bottoms

    Plenty of pips, when avoiding the Center.

    Center is aligned with timing.

    Everything Starts and Ends in the Center.

    The only means to survive, in a very long term, is to learn how to avoid the Center.

    The Market Makers want you to trade in the Center.

    Center is their best interest and best buddy...

    This is quite practicle opinion... I hope it will help.

    P.s. Everyone must loe the answer of”How?” For oneself's.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Thanks AO. My apologies for not being crystal clear. I wasn't speaking about Profit Factor at all. Profit Factor is determined by the outcome of a egy. I had been only referring to entry setups based on current market conditions at the point of entry relevant to the subject of the thread i.e. Reversion to Mean anticipates a market to revert from some OB/OS or whatever level the egy targets with the expectation that reversion will proceed to it's final destination (i.e mean in this instance ). How you specify levels or mean is irrelevant. I was also...
    the six dimentions thingy is an over kill.

    When you enter into a commerce; the market can go in the direction of your commerce, against it, or move. 3 possibilities just.

    Keep it simple. As soon as you open a position; exit at a profit, and whether the market goes against nowhere or you exit at a reduction. period.

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