5/20/8 GBP/USD LONG
Entrance: 1.9705
Stop reduction: 1.9655
Take Profit: 1.9805
Ranking size: 1.5%
Trade: B /A-
Prediction:
Price will rise to the second or first take profit stage on the four hour tunnel. Because I have been cut short recently - taking profit way too premature, I have decided to embrace a trend trader approach and aim for the more powerful moves only, and so take profit in the next exit stage, or further. For better information see my discussion thread.
The Monthly chart indies a strong downtrend using a recent Pinnochio suggesting that price may continue downwards. Sad to say, the Pinnochio is a B-Grade- that the next eye extended higher than the initial, the center Pin bar is only good, not fantastic. While I think price will last down, the 4 hour chart indies to me that price will split long first before returning to the downward trend.
The Weekly chart indies a recent, moderatly strong uptrend. There aren't any substantial entry signals on this lengthy time frame. I'm trading contrary to the Monthly, but using the Weekly trend.
The Daily graph indies the new powerful uptrend mentioned in the weekly. Again, no entry signs.
The 4 Hour chart shows a TBH! Granted the last bar hasn't closed yet. It appears like price is trying to crack through this new resistance. Because the sole price action is on the 4h time frame, AND since weekly and monthly trends don't concur, this is a B trade at best. I'm risking 1.5%, and setting my take profit in the second 4hr tunnel exit point. Usually on anything less than a trade I'd normally set take profit for the very first exit stage, but I have updated my trading procedure. I have produced a purple resistance line and placed my entry over the TBH.
Decision UPDATE 5/21
This position was entered last night or this morning. I have included an updated 4 Hour chart. As you can see there is finally a specific entry signal: Bullish Outside Bar (BOB) bouncing off the 61% fib retracement! If I had been a much better trader I'd have bought in the retrace- now I would be up 100 pips instead of 25 pips, but that's a discussion for the discussion journal.
Graph 1: Daily
Graph 2: 4h
Graph 3: 4h *Upgraded