Thread: Lows Journal

Originally Posted by ;

The next set of failures are not really that clear to me. After doing sufficient damage over-trading gold, I quit trading before the new year, as December is pretty lame anyways.

Time passed, transactions were taken, some winners, some losers, nothing substantial. At the point the kiwi had recently published double monthly bearish pin bars. There was a lot of debate about the brief of the year, it seemed good to me and that I pulled my capital into the mix. Made an 500 pips per week.

This 500 pips has been the only profit I would see on that pair,...

You know what? Honesty is the attribute and that I wish more people would share.

At least you did not buy Dean Malone's synergy system. What type of dummy could do this?

You are being too hard on yourself! (-)420 in two years is hardly anything to be ashamed of.

I managed to lose 500 at a day in my initial deposit. Now that was awkward to say the least.

This little narrative is equally sad and amazing, based on weather I worry how much I made, or how much I really dropped before it, also in keeping with the confession theme, I will only be strait about it.

My machine has always had a high loss rate, but my winners have also been enormous. Regrettably, they have never been massive sufficient to offset losses.

Going into this summer that I had been lucky/good sufficient to call a top at the swissy and a temporary bottom in the pound. I also made some great calls on the yen, also required 1000 easy pips in the gbp/nzd. Astounding as these transactions were (I'd multiple positions whatsoever, some with massive position sizes because of lower TF entrances ), my aggregate declines had seriously compounded.

To make this absolutely clear: These transactions tripled my account balance.

But by the time that happened, my account had reached its nadir at a little over $35.

This attracted my balance to it's latest swing high of about $109.

These transactions also account for almost all of my vouches.

I began this thread, this way, since I need the traders who have vouched for me to really grasp my progress. When you have a look at those names, you will notice some wonderful people, for whom I have a lot of regard, and that I much as I wish to consider myself part of that group (successful traders), I am not really there yet.

I am unsure how other traders will translate this thread up to now, so that I feel compelled to explain myself somewhat farther. This thread isn't only a place to combine my views going forward, but is, now, a move towards better integrity.

In my own life outside of gambling and FF, I find that within the last several years I've gravitated in a way I dislike immensely. In brief, honesty has always absorbed me. I am a terrible liar. I can lie as well as a two year old can drive. Yet during the last couple of years, my life has required not that I lie directly, but it has rewarded me for omission, and with each passing day that I drop further and further from my own inner definition of integrity.

This thread is only one little step in a overall program push myself down into the lowest possible amount of absolute truth, to regain control of my fate, and know that whatever my outcome, they a predied upon reality.

Originally Posted by ;

So, this little story is equally sad and amazing, based on weather I stress just how much I made, or how much I really lost before it, and in keeping with the confession motif, I will just be strait concerning it.

My machine has always had a higher loss rate, but my winners have also been enormous. Regrettably, they have not been massive sufficient to offset losses.

Moving into this summer that I was lucky/good sufficient to call a shirt in the swissy along with a temporary bottom in the pound. I also made some great calls on the yen, and took 1000 easy pips in the gbp/nzd. Astounding...

I understand what you're conveying and the gravity of it all. It becomes my buddy. Reduce exactly everything you can and remember your intentions-realized or not-is what you'll be judged .

As a side note, if anybody feel pressured to advise me, this isn't a cautionary tale, sob-story, or even cry for help.

That is simply me pushing the reset button.

And clearly identifying my place on the trader deadline.

Originally Posted by ;

As a side note, if anyone feel pressured to advise me, this isn't a cautionary tale, sob-story, or cry for assistance.

This is simply me pushing the reset button.

And obviously identifying my place on the trader timeline.

And I thought you're a serial killer.

Originally Posted by ;

and I thought you're a serial killer.

I am lol...for accounts.

There's one last confession. . .then we exchange.

The macro outlook:

Before I go on to mark my latest and biggest failure, I would like to take a minute to talk about how I see the charts now.

For the most part, I'm a change trader. Trend or counter-trend, in the past several weeks I have had no transactions at all, and as I sit here patiently waiting, the current activity is almost as incredible as the initial 2008 decline.

In my perspective, the dollar is in freefall (signaled better by gold, than other currencies) and this likely matches the FED just fine. They are likely content with this arrangement provided that US equities and the several other investment vehicles preferred by Americans everywhere, continue to positively correlate with the polished aluminum alloy.

As Chris () mentioned in his thread, last week we saw several commodities futures the day limit-up, telling us that maybe the long-awaited (hyper?) Inflationary period the FED has tried so hard to make, will soon rob the American middle course of exactly what little discretionary income they might have once had.

Since the IFM tosses out the term currency war repeatedly, it is going to become a favorite conversation piece, but little more, and the majority of the majors (with the exception of the yen, and the aussie unless something happens to gold), will likely not be where the action is at, since these developed nations need the exact same thing, inflation, and they cannot make it relative to each other (race to the bottom), and will need to be satisfied with rising raw material costs as a indior of the success.

The current favorable earnings reports, do not denote incoming wealth as much of the cash will seep in the FED or invested beyond the United States, and what's spent here will probably be MA action (if funded through debt, this will create real inflation), which will lead any newly joint partnerships to further decrease their regional workforce by removing redundant branches.

Since the rising raw material costs make their way into finished products, in an environment where most companies will probably be paying pennies on the dollar for any new worker's due the high unemployment rate, we will find ourselves making less, working more, government agencies will be cut due to budget constraints, while the price of our regular goods becomes increasingly more distant in our financial reality.

This doesn't look to be a healthy prescription. And I promise you I'm not a doomer.

In regards to the charts, I can honestly state that I don't see much chance for my particular style of trading right now. I cannot be convinced to go long on the very first little retracement of these pairs we see trending so hard right now, nor do I see any sign of a short chance, so I'm pretty much just sitting here bored.

Should we see any substantial activity on the DXY, I would look to short gold, and maybe a couple different things (even though it's really just one big dollar drama ), and otherwise I will be waiting for a few reasonable decline to go long.

Please forgive my little stream of consciousness post here, but I am attempting to somehow make sense of everything. Not that I need or expect the markets to perform exactly what I imagine, simply to step back, draw a conclusion, determine how it matches the charts, and otherwise, utilize different egies to take pips from this market, or just plain stand out.

Any remarks or stats are all welcome.

So it is time to finish my narrative, and in keeping with my own personal imperative to cut as much of my own BS as you can, we will be moving forward and on trading soon.

In the last confession, I talked about my fantastically successful transactions, though they were pre-empted with still another series of losses, these trades gave me a huge confidence boost. This was evident as it impacted many aspects of my own non-trading life. Across so many fronts I was unstoppable, it was magnificent.

Having taken a good hard look in the reality of my finances, and taking into account how much time and effort and anguish and revelry I had dedied to trading thus far, I determined that trading (consistently) would require enough commnt, and also be such a unique gift that, like any other voion you may spend years qualifying for, and it isn't unreasonable to want to exchange OPM.

Simply put, if I succeed in an industry with a 95% failure rate, it is still not quite financially rewarding if you only have a small balance to work with, in contrast to the amount of time you spend getting there. I can actually earn more money just plain functioning, and it is guaranteed.

Not only that, however small balances increase the probability of a trader carrying higher risk, so that his wages are noticable. But if I had been trading a nice amout of OPM, I would not need a high risk egy, 1 percent a month could be totally within reason.

Therefore my premise was that many of us chase too high of a return due to our small balances, yields that might be sporadically achievable, but not sustainable, so instead I believed to work on earning 1%-3% a month, and ended the challenge of starting a demo managed account.

Coming off the top of my recent wins, I jumped to just exchange the cr@p it out. The account went active in mid-July of this calendar year, and is consequently down 15%. There have been few transactions in the last several months as it became apparent that my egies weren't succeeding, but now I need to somehow clawback these declines, in hopes of demoning a net profit by July of next year. This is a three year experiment, so I'm not totally despondent, but it (along with the other tales ) is one of the reason I have started this thread, to chronicle as many of my transactions moving forward as you can, and to attempt to remove my principal weakness: overconfidence.

I'd love to do some more self-analysis, but for now here's some charts and ideas:
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It looks like we will observe a pause at the selling since many dollar plays are now finding temporary support.

I receive my DXY at freestockcharts, and it will not publish the daily til after NY close, so I really don't get to understand yet.

Of interest, gold still has a bit to fall until I'm a buyer, we will observe a test of this rather parabolic TL around 1300 if this current decline persists.



Also, we've got the pound sitting on a wonderful daily TL, but I will not be a buyer til Asia, and only when we receive a downthrust to shake out the weak longs and lure the punters in brief. If the TL is broken , I'll look for a retest following week to brief.