Thread: Experiment: Speculation Bonaza!!!

Fundamentals: Tuesday-Oil price stil high and certainly will be, commodities prices at all time high. USD does not have any firm response, carry trade is rumored to continue.USD/CAD anticipated to fall into 0.98 below before back to parity.EUR/USD, will visit 158.5 if it breaks 156.5, will drop lower if breaches 154.5.
GBP/y remains consoliating, currently in a leash going to split ( possiblely reduced )

COT:CAD strength and USD weakness came into play ( amazing day )
- assess if news has some impact on DIBs drama
Canadian: bullish ( played with monday)
Swiss Franc:bullish ( played with monday)
Pound: Bullish?
Yen: Bearish?
Euro: no more bias ( slightly bullish)
NZ: slightly bearish
AU: Bearish*??? ( if commodities are something to go by, NZ and AU should be bullish, we willl see)

Equity: DOW started bullish ended bearish, asia market followed

nB daily: Vegas COT PA DIPs predicted enormous move on U/C
Models ( Slow and Steady)
--------------------------
*Vegas ( weekly, 4HRly(fad ), Daily(TP), HRly( entry) P ossible AU and AJ
P ossible brief U/C ( nb. Deal with DIPs)
Tuesday: U/C, A/U ( TP, o.962, SL 0.9487)
appro: 70pips
- A1 Method. Secure and long-term
NB. No mistakes

Jacko Anti-Hedge:1.56 from 1.54 ( consistent )- scale ( consistent, slow a continuous )


Rollovers, Kantor:


*PA: ( need more pairs -charts)
TRIGGER
DIPS1: ( this technique altho seemingly simple, has potential)- an amazing A1 method with an ex pit trader-good stuff! Better to steer clear of any trades following 5
Tuesday's play: E/U, U/C
Monday: appro 100 pips
DIPS2:
Tuesday's play: E/U, U/C
Monday appro:50pips
if LTFs agree with HTFs, its a doozy!nb U/C play was PA agreeing with COT result was tremendous)

Propreitary:

Misc ( Runups, slow newstrades etc- ignorables):

Models ( Mad Money account) - 30% ( mad trade-70:30 concept)
---------------------------------
( Seperate)
MysticGenie discretionary ( MM:expo number- componding
Extreme cot trading, PA
Eliminate fear,use COT to find extremes, Trends( Demarkers, Lg.s etc), Dow closes affects Asia opens ) assess this, mouteki, PAs
- potential integration A/H, ching 2th of trend for safety issues ( seems to defeat the point. .) P ossible E/J and Cad/y
scaling in (big)
open E/J and Cad/y- long term projection: 200-300pips



*CAT FX scalp ( secured ) ( stopped)
Tuesday: appro 30pips ( 1 commerce only with fad )

confluence of reasons:signals / fundamental, technicals*2 encouraging each other-added power for confirmation of fad
take half and operate
Tuesday's drama

Fundamentals: Tuesday-Oil price stil high and certainly will be, commodities prices at all time high. USD does not have any firm answer, carry trade is rumored to continue.USD/CAD expected to fall to 0.98 below before back to parity.EUR/USD, will go to 158.5 when it breaks 156.5, will fall lower if breaches 154.5.
GBP/y remains consoliating, currently in a leash about to break out ( possiblely lower)

COT:CAD strength and USD weakness came in to drama ( amazing day )
- assess if news has some effect on DIBs drama
Canadian: bullish ( played monday)
Swiss Franc:bullish ( played monday)
Pound: Bullish? ( nb. COT kicked on Tuesday)-no way to forecast,possibley break of Keltner, 100EMA and 52 SMA ( either case nevertheless contained by 205)
Yen: Bearish?
Euro: no more prejudice ( slightly bullish)-( GERMAN news and COT kicked in)
NZ: slightly bearish
AU: Bearish*??? ( if commodities are something to go by, NZ and AU ought to be bullish, we willl see)
Equity: DOW started bullish ended bearish, asia market followed
( THE COTplay so is accurate, key thus lies in if it starts to minimise drawdowns )

nB daily: Vegas COT PA DIPs predicted enormous move on U/C
Models ( Slow and Steady)
additional 169ema 144ema for precise entry ( feels unnessesary)
--------------------------
1. *Vegas ( per week, 4HRly(fad ), Daily(TP), HRly( entrance ) P ossible AU and AJ
P ossible brief U/C ( nb. Arrangement with DIPs)
Tuesday: U/C, A/U ( TP, o.962 hit, SL 0.9487)
A/J:99.62 (tp 99.87, sl98.5 - bad entry, below TL) ( in profit, noted 4HR adaption of [email protected]
appro: 70pips
- A1 Method. Secure and long-term
NB. No errors. Bloody powerful system!

2. Jacko Anti-Hedge preferablely with SAN:1.56 from 1.54 ( constant )- scale ( constant, slow an steady)
100 100 ( may be ideal on conc. On E/U if fundamentals persist, SAN benefit )




TRIGGER
0000GMT for G- pairs?
DIPS1: ( this technique altho seemingly simple, has potential)- an wonderful A1 method with an ex pit trader-good material! ) Best to steer clear of any trades following 5
Tuesday's drama: E/U, U/C ( late entry)
Monday: appro 100 pips
Tuesday:20pips
DIPS2:
Tuesday's drama: E/U, U/C
Monday appro:50pips
if LTFs agree with HTFs, its a doozy!nb U/C drama was PA agreeing with COT effect was enormous )
( more pairs)
Propreitary:
*DAILY PA: ( need more pairs -charts)
Wed: G/A 2.0502, ( TP2.0037 SL 2.078) BEOVB

*CAT FX scalp ( locked ) ( ceased )
Tuesday: appro 30pips ( 1 trade only with fad )


Misc ( Runups, slow newstrades etc- ignorables):
Rollovers, Kantor:
Designs ( Mad Money account) - 30 percent ( mad trade-70:30 concept)
---------------------------------
( Seperate)
MysticGenie optional ( MM:expo amount - componding
Extreme cot trading, PA
Remove fear,utilize COT to find extremes, Trends( Demarkers, Lg.s etc, ), Dow closes influences Asia opens ) assess this, mouteki, PAs
- potential integration A/H, ching 2th of trend for safety issues ( seems to defeat the point. .) P ossible E/J and Cad/y
scaling in (large )
open E/J and Cad/y- long term projection: 200-300pips
Nb. Hit 120 pips now retraced to 34 pips
broke weekly SS/DD channels and took PA at daily
NBBBB. CAD Squeeze may be only 1 day simply should have TP at 120pips
Beautiful dip in GY after lower DOW over nite. 5-13 -- isrisky drama



confluence of motives:signals / fundamental, technicals*two encouraging each other-added power for confirmation of trend
take half for breathing spand operate
Tuesday's drama
__________________
It is not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are correct and how much money you lose when you are mistaken.

THURS DAY:All Day EUR Holiday: Corpus Christi Day, Lets see if that affects the London market

EUR must extend the last piece of its own run to 1.59 before major resistance, GJ is stil involving higher between 200-205 but if ultimately break 200 again.
Fund bias: NZY in crapper, Aus bullish ardently, USD drops, EU rises, oil and cad climbs

Asia followed DOW would have return 30-50pips blindly
pairs to notice:
( oz fx)
USD/CHF ( Brief ), NZD/JPY ( Short)

COT:CAD power and USD weakness came into drama ( beautiful day )
- check if news has some impact on DIBs drama
Canadian: bullish ( played with monday)
Swiss Franc:bullish ( played with monday)
Pound: Bullish? ( nb. COT kicked in on Tuesday)-no way to forecast,possibley break of Keltner, 100EMA and 52 SMA ( either case still included by 205)
Yen: Bearish?
Euro: no more bias ( slightly bullish)-( GERMAN news and COT kicked in)
NZ: slightly bearish
AU: Bearish*??? ( if commodities are something to go by, NZ and AU should be bullish, we willl see)
Equity: DOW started bullish stopped bearish, asia market followed
( THE COTplay thus is accurate, crucial thus lies in when it starts to minimise drawdowns )

Vegas: Vegas disagrees with NJ play thus no drama, based on currency pair, buy weakest based pairs ( USD, NZD, JPY), together with strongest currencies ( AUD, EU, CAD), or sell strongest currencies ( AUD, EU, CAD) with lowest established pairs ( USD, NZD, JPY)

buy ( AUD, EU, CAD)
__________________
...( USD, NZD, JPY)

sell ( USD, NZD, JPY)
__________________
...( AUD, EU, CAD)

vegas short ( USD /CAD), slope gradually turning 4hr should be rebounding ard 0.9800
extended ( AUD/USD) slope gradually turning ( bad trade, pure stupidity, contradictory signs ) - last piece of momentum.
Profitable now waiting for alteration.
Learnt: don't force a trade, if not might need to take TP earlier, keep abreast of fundamentals
possible to unite CAT before vegas for exact entry

possible short on USD/JPY ( pure stupidity was extended signal..as always. . Not brief )
possible limit short on GBP/CHF ( to be aborted if whirling top forms on daily)- 38 pips
possible short ( GBP/AUD)- screwed big time, lesson learnt, avoid volatile GBP for momentum versions, also avoid holidays, low volume, high volatility
possible short GBP/CAD-screwed major time
possible long CHF/JPY-20 pips
errors: if not TP until change (4HR)
check tonite

JACkO:EUR/USD
300pips success ( chose to abandon last 1/8 th of possible run, may have locked in and safe run)


DIPS (tabulation of pips )
error made took it until it broke over IB,
didn't require half profit and let run, It had great propensity to operate 30 pips and futher
NU:14pips
NJ:11 pips ( both hit 30-50pips)
worked well (100% hit rate ) however a safer method would happen to await a break of high of IB, cons is profit is subsequently reduced

no price action found

final analysis: DIBs and CAT FX most likely
EU- best for long term.

Vegas- setups infrequent. ( very large success rates, easily highest with/ or replaces CAT FX)

Nuances: SAN, lock in and operate, after effects of DOW.

Another possibilty: identify up pair COT has indentified and maintain scalping UP.
If you're worng the tendency will rescue you, in case you're right, it is a free run.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Funding:EU consolidating, took profit believe still upward. May use intensive AH egy since R:R is now lower. GY if fractures 208, carry trade is back.if not toward 200. U/C must hang ard 0.98-1.00
intensive AH now used on MG too
Friday: DIBitty:
U/C: 80

COTS test:
CANADIAN DOLLAR - Short ( Bearish)- but keep note on oil prices

SWISS FRANC - volatile trading ( v. slightly bearish)

BRITISH POUND STERLING - Long ( bullish ), Yet brief OI is increasing

JAPANESE YEN - Short ( Bearish)

EURO FX -volatile trading ( slightly bearish, commericals are hedging brief, non commercials are still looking long)
- potential retracement.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR -Short ( bearish ), Start Looking for commodities prices

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR - volatile trading ( slightly bearish)

Tough week, almost all pairs are bearish, countertrend.
See COT reports, may be wise to watch for the EU to retrace, goal ard 1.54-.1.55 before continuation of bullish trend, potential conclusion of week or weekly. USD seems to be strengthening, the only real play is short ( counter-trend EU), U/J unlikely to go beyond 105. In front of a quick rejection but until then potential bullishness continues if the USD continues to fortify.

EJ is very likely to be ranging since both are slightly bullish as Jp is very short, EU is marginally short.
AU-likely to be bearish
U/C inclined to become bullish
GJ - inclined to range,slightly bullish
AJ- ( bearish) potential rejection on 100 ( both are very bearish)
NJ- bullish Nzd: slighly short, Jp short( played out monday)

Euro has played out its bearishness in early week.
Pound has played out its bullishness on tuesday as have aus ( bearish)

for COTS, look for extremes, eg, Jp is exceptionally short, EU. Slightly etc
U is an unknown variable
SAN has a 100% success rate
DIBS amazing watch se
the magic # is 3.

As a new entrance in forexforum.co.za Journals
I will keep a summary of my methodogy and live trading online.most of my trading style is derived from good trading books I've read,Jesse Livermore etc and some remarkable traders I have had the opportunuity and honor of meeting and learning from.
Most of the will probably be in point form. If you find a need to discuss further or discuss what's worked for you.
You may PM me or simply post.
It's long been a key wish that one day I may form a trading team with strengths that compliment others, I am currently working on an EA with a technician team of developers too.

Fine summary
-------------------
Trading time: 7pm EST to 6 am EST
1. Know your fundamentals, Establish the overall trend- Get yours news and sense of what will occur for the day.
There are numerous sources: CNBC, CNN, Reuters, Bloomberg, TTN etc etc, for simplicity that you may just use a consolidator

2. Assessforexforum.co.zaCalender and syncronise news time with your clock. You ought to be reminded of this news 15-30 mins before the news.
There's not any such thing like being caught in surprise by expected news, simply carelessness and stupidity.
Know the news for the day..price is news and news is price. More frequently than not the market will move to the anticipation of this news event for the day.

3. Utilize technicals to determine your entrance and exits.
Around the opening of the NZ / Asia markets. Start looking for the 50% FIB retracement of the preceding big move of the day. It will most likely move there. If you are more competitive. You may trade the retracement and trade the persistent trend in the 50.

Markets: Generally speaking. Asia should likely be used for scalping, London may be used for bigger intraday moves. Asia generally ranges and larger moves are in London.

A. use proper money management.generally 2% of your total account ought to be all that ought to be risked in a proper trade.
For cash management, a position ought to factually be 1 percent of account/ ( ATR* Dollars per pip) - ( Reference Trading )
if you need the formulation please PM me.
As a rule of thumb the higher the Average trading Range of the currency you are coping with. The lower your unit size ought to be, as it has more potential of burning out you. eg. You may hold more of EU as to GJ
as general rule. If I lose 10% of my account. I will trade my account as if it has gone down by 20%. , by lowering your unit sizes significantly, this guarantees longetivity of account and allows you to figure out exactly what went wrong.

B. establish a proper breakout system. I only try to ch breakouts in London. Bigger time frames ( Months. Week, days ,hrs) affirm
general tendencies, I trade off the 1HR and fintune entrance to 1/5 min precise entries when nessesary.

Adding components:
one ought to include components in INCREASING order ( this is really a moot point), the first unit size has been the smallest. This is exactly what I coin the scout
unit - this will want to verify if there's a trend and if it's going in the direction you are expecting it to. If you are wrong, or temporarily so. There's not any point in adding to positions. ALWAYS usage stops.
If the trend is in accore to your anticipation ( you are right!!) , then add positions and let your profits run until it hits your TP.
Entries and exits.
Predetermine your entries and exits before each trade.I utilize a lower TF MA platform to select my entrances, the ATR to determine the expected length of this transfer. Units are concealed beneath the pivots (S/Rs) and Fibs for more protection against retracements.price usually does not move in a direct line.
IN occasion your line is heavy and fully loaded, (you'd the opporuntity to include many unit sizes inserted on it at regular intervals supporting S/R lines ). I regard each seperate unit placed across the way as its own and exposed to what is coined the antihedge rule by Jacko with the position locked in a BE.if the price retraces it takes the previous position out at BE and also the position is re-entered whenever price passes through it . ( this is cumbersome and will require an EA)- Profit is only taken when the TP is reached ( move completed), or at the crystal clear sign of a reversal signal of this trend.
In event, there's not any way to BE. Your stop loss ought to be limited to 30 pips on a single lowests unit size or the scout unit.
If done correctly, this should net you a typical of 200 pips obtained for each 30 pips loss. Or allows 6 losses for each triumph.
Risk reward ought to be 6.67:1
your win loss ratio should be 3:1( in actual trading)

I'll do some live real time trades on Monday's London.
I typically only trade 1 trade each day. I scalp in Asia when I am bored but usually loe this process draining if done within a extended period of intense concentration altho it is profitable

COT test 2 ( check out ino.com regular )
Cad: Strong Brief Bias ( OI Short ) ( finally see oil), CAD/JPY max was 207 regions
Franc: Strong Extended Bias ( continue shorting G/C) ( OI Long*) may be played ( long all the 3 way)
Pound:Long Bias ( OI neutral- note possible change )
GBP/CHF ought to be played short - all the way to wednesday. Loe good entrance
( motive GBP possible, CHF power )*
Euro: Volatile ( OI long*) - get ready to rally EU ( Euro power raising, only unknown factor is USD-check ino for every single trend)
Yen: Moderate strength Short ( ALTHO OI Long Growing )
NZ: SLight short ( OI shortish)
AU: Strong Short ( OI longish- representing possible change ) ( see commodities)

*PLay of the week is possible GC retracement cum continued short and EU bull rallly ( possible)

EJ is very likely to be bullish when it breaks out of 163-164.27 range because Euro remains strengthening ( partial performed, OI still rising, y decreasing )
EU is very likely to return to bullishness ( keep tabs USD news and power )
AU-likely to become bearish ( keep tabs commodities ( seems to wait correction ) and USD strength
U/C likely to become bullish ( now at a top 99.33 altho is determined by USD strength this week, Cad can also be oil dependent)
GJ - nevertheless slightly bullish altho constantly high ( hence bull might be somewhat entirely played, upside potential could be limited)
AJ- ( bearish) ( depends on commo)
NJ- bullish Nzd: slighly short, Jp very short( nevertheless )
CAD/JPY: nevertheless bullish ( depends upon oil)
USD/CHF:nevertheless bearish ( assess USD strength, should bearish this week, this ought to dip )
GBP/CHF: GBP has played out power, CHF was certainly super bullish, if GBP weakens this ought to dive )

Originally Posted by ;

rough week, virtually all pairs are bearish, countertrend.
See COT reports, might be sensible to wait for the EU to retrace, goal ard 1.54-.1.55 prior continuation of bullish trend, possible conclusion of week or next week. USD seems to be strengthening, the only real drama is short ( counter-trend EU), U/J unlikely to go beyond 105. Before a quick rejection but until then possible bullishness continues if the USD continues to fortify.

EJ is very likely to be ranging because both are somewhat bullish as Jp is extremely short, EU is marginally short.
AU-likely to be bearish
U/C likely to become bullish
GJ - likely to range,slightly bullish
AJ- ( bearish) possible rejection on 100 ( both are extremely bearish)
NJ- bullish Nzd: slighly short, Jp very short( performed monday)

Euro has played out its bearishness in ancient week.
Pound has played out its bullishness on tuesday as have aus ( bearish)

for COTS, search for extremes, eg, Jp is extremely short, EU. Slightly etc
U is an unknown factor
SAN has a 100% success rate
DIBS amazing watch se
the magic # is 3
nb. Correlartion between oil and Cad y, commo and aud
differentiate direction, use PA ( DIBs can also be a part of PA), Gann,DM etc trigger, let it run.
Use cot, don't have to exchange all the time, trade only when convinced then go all in fully load. ( thorpe style)
differently exchange smaller lots, 45mins DIBs, vegas 1/5hr, understand EU busy HRs,
notice similar trigger involving gann and Demarks
gann TL FIBs, smaller smooth entrance TFs on E/G

T/Ls, resistances, allow the week perform.

K.I.S.S.