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TODAY's OUTLOOK
Looks very choppy and Explosive higher timeframes, H1 and M15. The bears had some great moments last week and seems like they are happy to reestablish their rankings, but the question is at what level. Now I'm only considering it as a potential expanding range (not bull trend just yet despite current price action), which might go either way and produce some wonderful rapid swings for both bulls and bears. This can be corroborated on D1, where we are in the middle of a Pullback into MA, therefore mid-range and anything could happen. Therefore, in the absence of strong and speedy tick action and drive, I'd rather commerce breakout failures compared to chase breakouts.
To help me concentrate and stay disciplined and prevent at least some crap trades (I'd take a couple last Friday despite a very neat a.m. session) I've created a commerce explorer connected to this thread.
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Today's first commerce was an excellent Multi-Timeframe entry, of which I'd love to do more.
On M15, we watched Signal Bar 1 as a very feeble Low 2 sign for a brief, in defence of the broken bear fashion line in a Bull Flag. This was possible to neglect.
On M5, we have a powerful High Two sign reversing that failed breakout. The Signal Bar was great on its own, using a Close Near High, but it was also an Inside-Outside-Inside reversal sign. Produced a scalp that was nice up.
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Currently holding a brief from High of Day and additional after Bar 3, that was a pleasant Shaved Bar Follow Through about the bear spike below MA, signaling a market vacuum and probably flipping to Always-In Short.
Bar 6: Low 1 for bears, but bull Close, a feeble Signal Bar, yet in a chase, so added more to brief. BE place in. The H1 MA20 magnet is right below in the M5 swing lows, so may generate a selloff.
Bar 7: Failed Low 1, tending bull figures, stopped out of latest entries near BE, and exited part of swing brief.
NOTE: High of the Day does not resemble a strong bear reversal yet, might be re-tested.
Bars 8-9: Really feeble High/High 3 entry (bear doji), stopped out bear chasers might want back in, so re-entered brief for potential cease run to H1 MA. Stops tight. Bar 9 closed as Low 2 Signal Bar, but bull shut, so a weak signal. On the flip side, bear chase still in progress, may still work.
Bar 10: No Low 2 entry triggered, bull Bull Micro Channel shaped by now on M5 and M15, bull Breakout probably, just leaving the stops to be struck. BEAR CHASE TURNING INTO BEAR STOP HUNT
Bar 14: nevertheless in. Moved the stops just 1.5 pips so , alas, they were not taken out along with the bears are back from the game.
Bar 15: powerful MicroChannel fracture, but might still test back in the MA before tanking to H1 EMA20.
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SEEING A STRONG HIGH 3 SETUP ON M15 (inside out inside), watching on M5 for bear collapse to switch to long.
Bar 21: preceding two bars failed as Low 1 and Low 1 Second Entrance, and Bar 21 closed near Top, break of bear TL, bears may be covering, entered extended for a HOD retest.
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Bar 23: very interesting. A Breakout faking for bulls, however, bulls did not have a strong sign below, so many bull chasers may be willing to enter as the bear reversal triggers and run stops to a new HOD. Tighened stop and added a buy stop over 23. Looks just like a recipe for a fantastic bull spike.
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Bar 24: Strong Entry Bar for bears on Lower High, additional to the very long lower and both entries were stopped out with a reduction.
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Bar 27: Strong Low 1 entrance for the chasing bears, the reversal failure opens and failed the downside. Sold on Bar 27, took four-pip scalp, holding for the lows. Flipping to Always-In Short.
Bar 29: Bear Spike in progress, searching for measured movement down.
Bar 31: strong two-bar reversal for bulls, a High 4 setup, may fail of course, will reverse to long if triggered above. WAS NOT TRIGGERED, Canceled the buy stop.
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Bar 34: Low 1 Failure, Second Signal Long, entering long upon trigger above.
Reversed to Long, nevertheless viewing the whole of now as a big range, a swing to HOD nevertheless potential.
Bar 38: a very debilitating Low 2 failure for the bears, Close On High, flipping to Always-In Long, added to the long to get a scalp with monitoring overall BE stops.
Bars 40-41: Powerful Low 3 Signal Bar for bears, followed with a solid Entry Bar, exited a portion of this longs, another leg upward likely, but require a bull sign bar today.
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Bar 50 was a strong Low 4 Secondly Entrance signal for the bears, took that you as a small scalp, almost BE. Back to Long as obtained a Greater Low Signal on M15 combined with a Top 1 Entry Bar currently triggering on H1.
SCRATCHED IT, calling it daily.
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TODAY's OUTLOOK
Seeing the H1 range at the 20 EMA is your main magnet today. On D1 we visit a contracting range above EMA 20, nevertheless Always-In Long, but bears are obviously positioning, so large moves and range fakeouts are probably. Seeking to fade those imitation moves since they form large ups and downs and potentially form expanding triangles, buy low sell high. Had my first fade sequence already, holding from BE.
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