Some take-away's from yesterday which was a fantastic day for me personally.
#1 the Three Hills and a Mountain pattern worked flawlessly. It was not an ideal pattern in you could argue if that was three four or mountains, but seemed very much like the timeless pattern. In addition to the volume that kicked in at the beginning of the Mountain was significant.
#2
previously, a very dumb and frequent mistake I used to commit was taking profits to a solid breakout and turning to brief for more, and then eventually giving it all back (and more) in shorts. There was selling pressure during the evening and there were several great looking bear pubs as the rally stalled. But checking higher timeframes gives you a whole picture why shorting here is a terrible idea -- you would be shorting where 4-Hour longs are getting in to a perfect two-bar reversal setup at least for a measured move scalp up -- if there will be follow through fro them remains to be seen, but they are definitely driving for a measured move up.
Had an excellent day yesterday, the market gave me three times my current daily aim. It seems good, but it is far more important now to thank God and realize that this is just a lucky streak and the favourable wide range states that we had yesterday, which might be completely gone today. Will be taking at least half a day off to clear the mind and not jump right to the market (well, I actually still have a minilot long in profit from yesterday night, but I grabbed myself that this was probably the first measure to overtrading, very risky, so will just leave it with a BE cease to fend for itself).
Insight from yesterday. Took this trade because I saw bulls setting themselves up for a trap. Buyers were getting very strong signs and entries in terms of price action and greater and better prices to get in with a hope for a High of the dawn breakout. But that's too good to be true -- the market providing you with cheap entries and then a spike to give you your profits. This was probably just an algo scalp commerce to check the surface of the range and run some weak bear ceases, and many bulls remained trapped then added fuel to the selloff that followed.
Must do some review and soul-searching -- as soon as I skipped my critique and cut back on preparation in the midst of different obligations and dissipation (but really unwillingness to take responsibility for outcomes...), my trading moved down the drain, lost Wednesday's profit by today to some unprepared trades, overtrading and undisciplined trading. Can not overestimate the importance of preparation and mental rehearsal to prevent this kind of nonsense. On Thursday, I lost because I ventured trading bigger size than justified by my egy (0.8), chickened out and widened my ceases to take a couple of hits.
Friday was profitable, but on small size (fearful to exchange bigger without preparation routines), along with also the day's profits were erased and some more lost during volatility in the day on bigger dimensions, making several fade efforts against the bull breakout. So, lesson number one is to walk away after reaching the daily profit goal, which I did not (and I'd reached the profit target). Another lesson is not to perform transactions which were not ready for techcnically in advance and are based on ideas derived just by watching current volatility.
The take-away from today (Friday), for we need something positive, not just whining about the money dropped. The morning shorts functioned well. The reason for carrying them was that the bulls were having difficulty even reaching the bear channel trendline on 5 min (drawn across candle highs) and promoting pressure just looked stronger (more consecutive bear bars, closes low). Plus that was just a pullback on both and one hour timeframes. These became good swing trades . Pity I have attached to the brief idea and proceeded shorting on the bull breakout carrying many many little scratch cuts and bleeding each the day's profit and some more as a outcome.
A thought, triggered by discussion on a different thread, reposting it in my journatl:
Unlike what many ego-driven retail traders think, the market is not a zero-sum match of wills and forecasts in regards to specific trades and profits. The entire market might be zero-sum in the end (though it is not really, because new money is being issued all of the time), but each single trade is a win-win to the individual traders. Every trader passes because you sees an chance to win money and exits either to make profit or to shield one's money (which is still a win choice in comparison to taking a larger loss). It is not a one-day match, either, since you open with one counterparty and depart with another. The market is a fair game of chance for everyone to choose what's he/she feels entitled to and capable of carrying, through careful preparation and execution of the plans in a systematic way. People who bring their small egos and wish to make them larger on the market and want every transaction or most trades to become winners, or become winners of prediction, ought to be ready to suffer lots of pain and disappointment.
Seeing a solid bull case now technically: there is an NR7 bull setup on the Daily (breakout out of a seven day tight range, breakout occurring over the lowest in a set of seven pubs in the consolidation), by a lower-low trend adjustment setup at that. The breakout bar of Friday was very strong, and if there is to be follow , bulls will probably be getting in on a retracement of the Daily bar, first round mid-body, then on a volatile test under its body. Have entered Extended on the 1 HR Moving-Average Gap set up, tight stop as always, scalp in already. But odds low given the bearish momentum. If stopped out, will be looking to re-enter B with a tight stop round 1.2445 as a fast test back to the tight range middle and the micro-trend line on the Daily chart.
I see this idea supported on 1H, since the bull BO of Friday was a third push up, and because the third push succeeded as a breakout (we are now might be watching a breakout test of the broken bear channel trendline), it calls for a bull profit target from the 1.263-1.266 area. At the level (or another climax above it) I'd consider switching to momentary based upon price action. But currently searching for buy setups only.
Buying anything that moves up now, really tight stops of course. Will probably become many small losses and breakeven scratches, but hope to ch the big momentum up when (and when ) it happens. Seeing a slightly higher low and second strong bull signal onto a swing low, possibly the beginning of a rounded base change. Buying pressure building up, but flushout still probably and wouldn't be unexpected.
Out breakeven, no movement. Will await the news.
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