Beating the Odds - Edge Within a Single Candlestick (Explained)
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Thread: Beating the Odds - Edge Within a Single Candlestick (Explained)

  1. #1
    prior to going into the thread

    FOREX TRADING IS SIMPLEI´m sitting before my computer thinking how to create this thread at the better way potential. Approximately 30 minutes have gone by and the best way I can think of doing this is keeping things as simple as possible. So Let´s begin. Please be certain that you have at least, moderate reading comprehension skills, the more the better. Otherwise, please follow the link in the left, upper corner. Thanks. Stupid questions from spoon feeding requesters and idle people will be disregarded and concealed.

    A lot of traders (and wannabes) in this forum know who is CP and some of these have tried to decode his system and loe the indiors he utilizes. I dont know him or how he trades, if he uses indiors or what his system is similar to, nor do I care. However I read part of what he shared one of it a phrase, 95% of the period price will shut above or below the open, within this statement lies a pot of gold that reduced to its lowest terms would be Price will trend in the open to the near 95% of their time.

    So, what is a trend? A trend is: A general direction in which something is developing or changing. O r a pattern of gradual change in a state, output, or procedure, or a typical or basic trend of a string of data points to move in a certain direction over time, represented by a line or curve on a graph.

    What causes a trend and why is it important? A trend results from a succession of high/lows and its important since it will give you a higher probability of reaching your take profit should you exchange based on its direction.

    So, if the majority of the time, 95% of the time by way of instance, price will trend and if you stick to the trend then you will get an advantage and in case you've got an edge you'll be able to beat the odds.

    However, how do you determine the trend THE ideal WAY? Should you utilize Moving Averages, TrendLines, MACD, RSI, insertindiornamehere? The answer is NO. Actually you dont want indiors or lines, all you will need is a reference point (candlestick available if you are slow and didnt notice by today ) to determine trend. Yesthats right, thats the only thing you truly need, nothing else. I mentioned earlier a trend is...a inclination of a string of data points to move in one direction over the years...

    Now, watch the subsequent illuion of quite simple information regarding balanced and unbalanced forces.


    I have to saywe as retail traders cannot go the market with all our trading orders, we are subject to the direction the market is moving and can do nothing to change it at will. Having said this, we must confront trading as if we had been betting. While, betting is a form gaming, it's slightly less risky and less uncertain than the former. Betting is defined as predicting the outcome of a potential event and placing 8216;a bet #8217; on this outcome. It's a simple attempt to win cash by carefully forecasting the outcome of a betted event. Here, the skills of a person might help as on the basis on an event, they can do some research and forecast the outcome of this betted event. Http://www.differencebetween.info/di...ng-and-betting

    Now look at the next illuion. What would the candlestick available be represented like in it? Thats right the line in the floor.


    Now look at the next illuion and select a side, ask yourself a few things.Which group would you place a bet 1:10 risk reward that its going to be the winner? Do you believe its 100% sure that you will win? Do you believe probabilities are on your own side? Imagine if you place bets on 3 games and win 1 out of 3 times, or win two out of 3 times, or win each time? Would you still be in profit at the end of the day? Would you choose your side before the match even starts or instead place bets when you find a group is winning it (it's possible to place bets even when it has already begun )? Would you're patient enough towait until it's clear who is winning to place your bet?
    Team on the best would be the bulls and team on the left have been bears


    Now for the practical part. There are few and simple actions to follow.Go into Daily chart for any pair and draw a line in the start of the first CS of this month Proceed to H4 chart for any pair and draw a line in the start of the first CS of the second week of this month Proceed to M15 chart for any pair and await the retest of this weekly open line. If we are above it and we are also over the monthly open line, buy. If we are below the line and also below the monthly open line, market.



    I'm sure this is simple enough, you may choose to publish this and read it a couple of times. There are a number of different ways that you'll be able to take advantage of this trend, for instance, if you see price above daily open and see that a triangle pattern breaking into the upside, the probabilities are on your own side. You dont want indiors to determine trend. This is the ideal means to determine trend and thats a fact. I dare you to prove me wrong in this, should you think of a way to prove I'm wrong and this is not the ideal means to determine trend let me know below. Https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mode_(data )





  2. #2
    Joycometh,
    Please review Post #23 from Fxmd.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Fxmd, My understanding is therefore BREAK BOTH then RETEST of Monthly or Weekly to earn entrance? Roy
    even when the monthly open is higher than a week open in a buy entrance. right?

  4. #4
    Fxmd,
    My understanding is therefore BREAK BOTH then RETEST of Monthly or Weekly to earn entrance?

    Roy

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote image pls examining this chart the monthly open is above while weekly open and price move downup and above both monthly weekly open and attempt to retest monthly before flying upward. Do we believe this a valid installment
    fxmd, if the monthly open is greater than the weekly open, can it still be considered as a valid setup?

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote picture pls examining this chart the monthly open is over while a week open and price move downup and over both monthly weekly open and attempt to retest monthly before flying upward. Do we consider this a valid installment
    hi earlroy63, in the example the monthly open is greater than the weekly open, can it still be considered as a valid installment?

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    , What are your Price Action rules on M15 to validate your entry? I favor H4 Inside bar break of high for Buy and split for non to Sell. Sometimes price remains between yearly and weekly amounts, therefore no transaction. What about breakout of those amounts? Would you take the transaction? Roy

    This is my favorite. Good to know that you have a definite pattern to search for. This will allow you to keep focused and cherry pick up your transactions.

  8. #8
    The indior can be edited to adjust the number for the weekly to pick up the line for the current or new week.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    file
    This is a very good indior, I use it to plot up to 4 previous weekly opens and 2 past monthly opens.

  10. #10
    Fxmd,
    What are your Price Action rules on M15 to confirm your entry? I favor H4 Inside bar break of top for Buy and break for low to Sell. Occasionally price remains between yearly and weekly levels, therefore no transaction. What about breakout of these levels? Can you take the trade?

    Roy

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