Yeap that is what I was talking about ... look whether there's a divergence near a s/r zone to have a clue ... but not use it as a trigger ... just beware what PA is telling us. Actually your queries on post 6 are helpful.Originally Posted by ;
Yeap that is what I was talking about ... look whether there's a divergence near a s/r zone to have a clue ... but not use it as a trigger ... just beware what PA is telling us. Actually your queries on post 6 are helpful.Originally Posted by ;
You say you don#8217;t utilize indiors; can you utilize any fundamental lines showing S/R etc?Originally Posted by ;
In answer to a query; if a price goes to a certain degree and quits it#8217;so because the proportion of individuals buying and selling shifted. Who moved it there? It was the folks buying if were speaking resistance or the folks selling if were speaking support and who will move it away, the opposite of those who transferred it in the first place. How does this fit in with this trend? Within an upward trend there'll be a bias toward buyers over sellers.
Please feel free to correct me im sure this is overly simplistic.
JohnW, my experiences (over approximately 6 years, in my instance) parallel yours very carefully. I've tested countless unsuccessful specialized systems, read dozens of books (like Bird Viewing), spent with James16; and I totally concur that indiors, pivots, Fibos, line studies, candle patterns, pin-bars etc have minimal mathematical significance. I've examined enough systems to learn that virtually all fit into maybe 3 or 4 basic classes (trend-following, top-and-bottom choosing, breakouts, etc), with detail in time entries and exits being the sole variation. I've given up because I'm fresh out of ideas, trying, and I'm not good at thinking outside the squares. I've reached the conclusion that systems are unsuccessful not due to a lack of efficacy of this method, but since price movement is arbitrary.Originally Posted by ;
It's here that we must part company. Whatever I say will seem like sour grapes - hence I apologize - but it's quite difficult for me to think that a Holy Grail exists (28,000 members on this forum seemingly have not found it, or maybe some are being very silent), or more notably that any method can provide a 97.5% win rate (assuming there's also some risk management).Originally Posted by ;
Let's do some simple math to illue: a 97.5% win rate signifies the likelihood of 10 consecutive losses is 0.025^10 that is less than 0.0000000000000001. Thus risking 10% of our account on every trade would be conservative. Grossing up, we've got 480 transactions (including 12 losses) in a year. If we assume a 1:1 RR, then the yearly return (using fixed fractional sizing) is 1.1^(480--12) / 1.1^12 x 100 percent = 1.1^456 x 100 percent = 750,005,472,272,750,582,200 percent p.a. No offense, but let us just say that's why a 97.5% win rate is difficult for me to grasp.
.... As well as a method that achieves a 50 percent win rate (or a high enough RR to compensate). Courage and patience are a breeze with a 97.5% success rate. Like you say I now trade without fear. If method brings confidence, then procedure is key.Originally Posted by ;
Sometimes price reverses significantly at S/R, occasionally it breaks out significantly, sometimes neither. Draw enough lines on a chart and a few will inevitably seem important -- in hindsight. Who is moving price and that will move it away from a specified S/R is seemingly the key to your own grail, however can technicals possibly tell you this? Or are you privy to some other secret supply of information? Has anyone got any thoughts?Originally Posted by ;
David
I really do have found my own Holy grail. I am among those 28,000 associates here A sacred doesnt need to be 100% right price predictions. So long as you're profitable at 200% a year.Originally Posted by ;
It is amazing that there aren't numerous profitable traders. Yes a few of them are extremely quiet. At least you will find just 1% profitable traders here right? That is 280 traders or far more than 1KT busy people here?
[QUOTE= ;]You say you don
Voodoo -- I'm willing to try it....Originally Posted by ;
I mean, most of us would just about sell our souls to get a system which -- just a moment, I will be back. The room is suddenly filled with smoke and a sour sulfur odor...
I do love a fantastic puzzle and forex supplies me with one every pip of the way.
So Who's that 'who' then?
David -Originally Posted by ;
You have the concept, today with some idea you can design a method to utilize it. That's what I did.
People have done it, it may work. You will be successful enjoy these Myfxbook with confirmed real money accounts.Originally Posted by ;
Http://www.myfxbook.com/members/priv...-trader/487685
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Nick.../haruea/397496
The brokerage sector is like one huge casino with free slot machines (MT4). When you hit a big winner, a big day, a big week, a big month, .... It'll keep you going because it gave hope you'll eventually see the light. 8 years is nothing, folks have been losing for years and still trying. As long as you've won once in your lifetime, you may believe you'll win in this match.