How to detect the end of a trend? - Page 3
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Thread: How to detect the end of a trend?

  1. #21
    You can't know for sure when a trend will end, nevertheless there are a number of clues that you could look out for.

    1) Moving average - should you notice price continues to be respecting e.g. 50 interval ma for the past X number of periods, then on the recent retest it broke off the 50ma by a massive margin.

    2) A break of structure - Technically in an uptrend we have a series of high highs and lows. If you notice price don't earn a new high and instead close lower and made a lower low, that might be a sign as well.

    3) Break of trendline - should you notice price respecting a historic trendline and it is broken by a massive margin, that could mean something as well. One more matter is the level of your trendline, if you always find your adjusting your trendline to be flatter, it's likely a sign of trend transiting into a range market.

    Hope that helps!

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hello All, I had been a little bit away from this forum because I'm creating a new indior for forex trading. My indior is functioning well (till now) and ill share the same with you guys because its completed. I only have one problem , if I want to exit the trade I exit just a little bit afterwards (though I have profit but not the maximum)... I only need to ask , how do I detect the end of a upwards/downwards trend? Any indior or proposal ? Thanks all in advance
    No way. The only thing you can do is to install SL and TP (in other words use money management).

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    The conclusion of the trend is detected when you have to close all your rankings because of a margin call. You can watch the market go that you planned. It works like that: image On a serious note. To detect the end of a fashion is impossible.
    Not necessarily quoted your article as it had been the single one saying that the conclusion of a trend cannot be detected, but it was the very amusing one (the film reminds me of my first trades and dropped account).

    Everyone believes that if you could detect the end of a fashion, this has to be 100% precision and all of us should be rich. Well, not everybody is rich and the ones that are rich probably know more than the others, don't you believe? Actually writing this only came to mind that there is a major difference between rich and wealthy.
    What if is a 80% chance to find the end of a fad?
    Now, let us suppose for the sake of debate we understand how to find the end of a fashion.
    What about another fad?
    How long is it valid for : 10 pips, 5 days?

    I've read a lot of fascinating post and threads onforexforum.co.za(clearly from extremely intelligent, brilliant people) and I am still amazed how you will find so many who are more than compliing things more than they need to be.

    How much would you need in your bank account to consider yourself rich? What would you do then?

    P.S. Please do not take my post as a crime, just trying to shed some light.

  4. #24

  5. #25
    Just full margin when u want to do it. . .dont be frighten like bear..but care about bulloq

  6. #26
    In accore with my understanding, the decent candidates for fashion reversion could be among the four types:
    1. Spring or Upthrust could be another way.
    2. Buying climax or orgasm.
    3. Support and resistance, such advertisement previous large, pervioud low,
    4. Oscillator divergence might be a great candidate for the end of the trend.

    All the best for your great trading.

  7. #27
    Hello,

    I couldnt begin a new thread becuase its says im a junior member, so I thought to just post it here.
    I have a fast question about Fibonacci retracements, people tend to buy/sell depending what trend the pair is in at a retracement of 6.18 percent fib.
    Atleast I hear alot of talk about waiting until it strikes the 6.18 prior to buying/selling with the main trend.
    Why is this retracement so important above any other?

    kind regards,

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Why is this retracement so important above any other?
    It is not; but it's acquired a self-perpetuating mystique among individuals who like to project their trading decision-making onto toys/gadgets/indiors, as a cozy replacement for learning to understand price action patterns and what they signify ... and since those individuals are in the majority, posting in forums and on sites about trading, which has therefore become the most visible consensus.

    The truth is, as shown in countless objective, independent, academic research, is this level (or another Fibonacci-level) doesn't have more overall importance than any other randomly chosen number around that region.

    The entire topic of how such things acquire perceived importance is well researched and illued in novels such as Michael Shermer's Why People Believe Weird Things and Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Fooled by Randomness, however these have a tendency to be relatively unpopular novels one of amateur traders, since they inexorably take lots of readers outside their comfort zones.

  9. #29
    I watch the candlesticks. A well-formed hammer, inverted hammer or doji candlesticks below a major resistance or above a major support on the 4-hour, daily, even weekly time-frames are clear indiions that there will be at least a temporary change.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    A well-formed hammer, inverted hammer or doji candlesticks under a major resistance or over a major support on the 4-hour, daily, even weekly time-frames are clear signs that there'll be a temporary change.
    Very much so.

    (This approach can even be quite good on shorter time-frames than that, also.)

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