There is a formula, in fact there a number of formulas for creating consistent profits. The secret is period horizon. If you think Quarterly and beyond, there are a few ways to conquer the market if you're disciplined.Originally Posted by ;
There is a formula, in fact there a number of formulas for creating consistent profits. The secret is period horizon. If you think Quarterly and beyond, there are a few ways to conquer the market if you're disciplined.Originally Posted by ;
I'm using a modified version of martingale, the point is you are able to use it profitably (for example, instead of 1 order using 1 lot, you can do 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and close them at distinct time), but there comes a point when you need to see your error, accept that you are wrong and close your rankings. Like this morning I dropped few percent, since I had my orders opened against the trend and I accepted the error, closed them and I proceed.Originally Posted by ;
Martingale is not always a bad choice, you merely need to know precisely what are you doing and to have the guts to admit your mistakes instead of letting them burn off your account.
Appearance I'm tired of arguing about martingales, amongst my 1180 posts that I have I committed like half of it to disprove martingale because a wise way of trading and discuss the risks of this, but there are only people that never understand.Originally Posted by ;
I expect you can make money with it, its just chance, but if you feel lucky, then whatever, many have attempted and lost their account, but its own money you do whatever you want with it
Hedging as You Don't Need To Lose
Every business suffer a Reduction from time to time. Trading is no different. End of...
When you go it's because you think there's a likelihood that the price increases. It can be a really brief term microstructural motive, a long term fundamental reason, a statistical arbitrage... Whatever you are bullish. When you hedge 1 lot with 1.4 lots short you're net short 0.4 lots. Do you believe it's reasonnable a bull is the market?
If you think your trade has a very good chance of success you will risk more cash to profit from this very good prospect. On the opposite if you regard that chances are poor you'll prefer risking less or not risking in any way. Correct? In the scenario where the price becomes caught in a congestion it means the bullish sentiment isn't so large and the only thing which is now clear is that it isn't clear in any way. Do you believe it's reasonnable to increase the risk increasingly more in a situation where the chances are getting worse and worse?
@ksofty: If I get it correctly, technically you are not martingaling but averaging down. It's also proven wrong just less wrong (quadratic risk increase instead of exponential).
Basically I am trying to swing-trade with another sort of scaling if it reverses and breaks and so when the trend continues I have a position that is better the tendency close the rankings and move on. I cant see what's wrong with this, either way I win, and when I have enough capital to buy on the break of this tendency, the average of all the positions is more than enough to close them 0 profit when the price retests the break. The main problem is that my capital for now is only $30 and it can't bear the floating losses until I close them should I happen to make a mistake
Indeed, at a fundamental level you can not have your cake and eat it too.Originally Posted by ;
IMHO
If I buy ==gt; price goes up, I win / price goes down, then I shed.
A loss is a loss and a win is a win.
No matter how you cook it, there's absolutely no escape.
That is not what hedging is, sorry ksofty but you aren't hedging, and its totally a dumb idea to go long/short in the exact same time because you only pay excessive spreads.Originally Posted by ;
Go long 1 lot, go short 1.4 lot is similar to going short 0.4 lot, except that you cover spread twice.
The most common payoff egy is to go long with the index, then go short on the weakest element of this index,the weakest inventory, which means you to get a correlation and so the risk of exposure is diminished, but performing long/short on the exact same instrument is dumb.
I know that because I did it too, so its from personal experience.
that I believe that you might made a mistake with all the nicknames, because I was totally against that 'hedging' thing.Originally Posted by ;
@, there is an escape, because each movement is retested, at least on the initial fibo level. The market consists of buyers and sellers and no one will give up easily without a struggle. If you ch the moment by using powerful support/resistance amounts and if you've got sufficient funds (and comprehension, of course) you can get out together with profit even from the worst trade in history. I'm far far far away from calling myself a successful trader and I believe most people should admit that in this forum there are no longer than 1-2% effective and profitable traders.
The FX market is consistantly changing and if you say experience is the 'grail', examine the market conditions in 2011, 2007, 2003, simply look back in time and see that nothing is the same and the consequence of this technical setups and even fundamental analysis and the strength of their consequent movements has changed.