Hedging Because You Dont Want To Lose - Page 2
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Thread: Hedging Because You Dont Want To Lose

  1. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote There may not be a formula that generates consistent profits. The market is designed to prevent that from occurring.
    There is a formula, in fact there a number of formulas for creating consistent profits. The secret is period horizon. If you think Quarterly and beyond, there are a few ways to conquer the market if you're disciplined.

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote You should use the order flow in your own favor.

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Not this man again That egy has already been debunked, its nothing more than a modified martingale. Sorry I've to close your opened eyes, but that egy wont work and you will likely lose your account with it, or slowly reduce the equity. I've been too much in the FX world to have been outfitted with a BS detector .
    I'm using a modified version of martingale, the point is you are able to use it profitably (for example, instead of 1 order using 1 lot, you can do 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and close them at distinct time), but there comes a point when you need to see your error, accept that you are wrong and close your rankings. Like this morning I dropped few percent, since I had my orders opened against the trend and I accepted the error, closed them and I proceed.

    Martingale is not always a bad choice, you merely need to know precisely what are you doing and to have the guts to admit your mistakes instead of letting them burn off your account.

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote I'm using a modified variant of martingale, the purpose is you are able to use it profitably (by way of instance, instead of 1 order using 1 lot, you are able to perform 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and close them at distinct time), but there comes a point when you have to understand your mistake, accept that you're wrong and close your rankings. Like this morning I lost percent, because I had my orders opened against the trend and I accepted that the mistake, closed them and I move on. Martingale isn't necessarily a bad choice, you just have to understand exactly what are you doing...
    Appearance I'm tired of arguing about martingales, amongst my 1180 posts that I have I committed like half of it to disprove martingale because a wise way of trading and discuss the risks of this, but there are only people that never understand.

    I expect you can make money with it, its just chance, but if you feel lucky, then whatever, many have attempted and lost their account, but its own money you do whatever you want with it

  5. #15
    Hedging as You Don't Need To Lose

    Every business suffer a Reduction from time to time. Trading is no different. End of...

  6. #16
    When you go it's because you think there's a likelihood that the price increases. It can be a really brief term microstructural motive, a long term fundamental reason, a statistical arbitrage... Whatever you are bullish. When you hedge 1 lot with 1.4 lots short you're net short 0.4 lots. Do you believe it's reasonnable a bull is the market?

    If you think your trade has a very good chance of success you will risk more cash to profit from this very good prospect. On the opposite if you regard that chances are poor you'll prefer risking less or not risking in any way. Correct? In the scenario where the price becomes caught in a congestion it means the bullish sentiment isn't so large and the only thing which is now clear is that it isn't clear in any way. Do you believe it's reasonnable to increase the risk increasingly more in a situation where the chances are getting worse and worse?

    @ksofty: If I get it correctly, technically you are not martingaling but averaging down. It's also proven wrong just less wrong (quadratic risk increase instead of exponential).

  7. #17
    Basically I am trying to swing-trade with another sort of scaling if it reverses and breaks and so when the trend continues I have a position that is better the tendency close the rankings and move on. I cant see what's wrong with this, either way I win, and when I have enough capital to buy on the break of this tendency, the average of all the positions is more than enough to close them 0 profit when the price retests the break. The main problem is that my capital for now is only $30 and it can't bear the floating losses until I close them should I happen to make a mistake

  8. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    If you move long it is because you think there's a good chance that the price increases. It can be a really short term microstructural reason, a long term fundamental reason, a statistical arbitrage... Whatever you are bullish. When you hedge 1 lot long with 1.4 lots short you're internet short 0.4 lots. Do you think it is reasonnable that a bull is short the market? If you think your trade has a chance of success you will risk more cash to profit from this excellent opportunity. On the contrary if you consider that chances are bad you will prefer...
    Indeed, at a fundamental level you can not have your cake and eat it too.
    IMHO
    If I buy ==gt; price goes up, I win / price goes down, then I shed.
    A loss is a loss and a win is a win.
    No matter how you cook it, there's absolutely no escape.

  9. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    When you move long it's because you believe there's a fantastic chance that the price increases. It may be a really short term microstructural reason, a long-term fundamental reason, a statistical arbitrage... Whatever you're bullish. When you hedge 1 lot long with 1.4 lots short you are net short 0.4 lots. Do you believe it's reasonnable that a bull is the market? If you believe your trade has an excellent probability of success you will risk more money to profit from this excellent opportunity. On the opposite if you consider that odds are bad you'll prefer...
    That is not what hedging is, sorry ksofty but you aren't hedging, and its totally a dumb idea to go long/short in the exact same time because you only pay excessive spreads.

    Go long 1 lot, go short 1.4 lot is similar to going short 0.4 lot, except that you cover spread twice.

    The most common payoff egy is to go long with the index, then go short on the weakest element of this index,the weakest inventory, which means you to get a correlation and so the risk of exposure is diminished, but performing long/short on the exact same instrument is dumb.

    I know that because I did it too, so its from personal experience.

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote That is not exactly what hedging is, sorry but you aren't hedging, and its totally a dumb idea to go long/short at precisely the same time because you only pay excess spreads. Go long 1 lot, go short 1.4 lot is like going short 0.4 lot, except that you cover disperse twice. The frequent hedging egy is to go long with the index, and go short on the weakest element of this index,the weakest stock, which means you to have a correlation and so the risk of exposure is decreased, but performing long/short about the...
    that I believe that you might made a mistake with all the nicknames, because I was totally against that 'hedging' thing.

    @, there is an escape, because each movement is retested, at least on the initial fibo level. The market consists of buyers and sellers and no one will give up easily without a struggle. If you ch the moment by using powerful support/resistance amounts and if you've got sufficient funds (and comprehension, of course) you can get out together with profit even from the worst trade in history. I'm far far far away from calling myself a successful trader and I believe most people should admit that in this forum there are no longer than 1-2% effective and profitable traders.

    The FX market is consistantly changing and if you say experience is the 'grail', examine the market conditions in 2011, 2007, 2003, simply look back in time and see that nothing is the same and the consequence of this technical setups and even fundamental analysis and the strength of their consequent movements has changed.

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