Post your Best Long-Term Stock Chart
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Thread: Post your Best Long-Term Stock Chart

  1. #1
    The original name of the thread has been Obvious Stock Trades. And while the goal was to post trades that were more/less obvious that's a title for a thread. Except in hindsight, no stock trade is clear. There are always two parties to a transaction, a buyer and a seller everytime you make a transaction, somebody has the opposing perspective.

    In anycase, this thread has basically just morphed to a trading diary in which I place charts I find interesting and place my portfolio from time to time in order that others may see that I'm eating my own cooking. Others are welcome to share, but If you don't enjoy breakouts or are uncomfortable buying a stock at a new all-time hight, I'm guessing you won't find this thread interesting.

    This thread is basically:The best trades you are seeing at this time. Good risk/reward traders. Preferably long-term trades (gt;3mo holding period) Preferably weekly charts but I still examine the daily chart also.
    For posterity's sake, here is what the Original Post stated...:
    Let's post links here that are so obvious even a cave man can take action.

  2. #2
    I guess I must go first but I've nothing that qualifies as great enough to post here.... I've had a lot to drink how about Extended CERN Short CPB.

  3. #3
    CERN to me seems like it is going to keep sliding down into some $45-$50 range...I find it's earnings outside May 5... I find it will ramp up IVR a bit into the earnings, so that you may do a inexpensive calendar, except it's only monthlies, or so the Apr expiry alternatives do not get you too close to the 5/5 ER. . .anyway, you could do the Apr/May $60 calls calendar for 18c....prolly will not get there by Apr, but you are going to be at the $60 long May calls 18c comms in the hole maybe ch a bullish soda onto the ER.
    ....in the calendar P/L under I take it into the Apr opex with a 10% increase, prolly will not get that much until the week of the ER....


  4. #4
    Once I think something is evident idk time - it turns out different than what it appeared - anyhow, something obvious to me is the impending volatility. I think volatility will begin ramping into the Brexit referendum date a month or more beforehand. The June FOMC (6/15) and also the Brexit referendum are only a week apart. Throw in a US political scene shaping up for Summer volatility (RNC convention mid-July) and it truly looks like a good one to market in May, go away - so I am looking for equities to top out by early May. I'm buying Jun UVXY and VXX call flys . Also a variety of SVXY, UVXY, and other VXX spreads that I have shown elsewhere.

  5. #5
    of course, Brexit referendum comes/goes and UK remains at the EU, FTSE will pop up, something such as EWU calls might be a fantastic bet, will wait to see if I could buy in July $16's for lt;25c, they might easily 10-bag

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    of course, Brexit referendum comes/goes and UK is still in the EU, FTSE will popup,
    also look at the largest City banks - HSBC, RBS, BCS, etc.....they are grinding down but could rebound pdq if/when the Brexit referendum fails....

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    of course, Brexit referendum comes/goes and UK remains in the EU, FTSE will pop up, something like EWU calls may be a fantastic wager, will wait to see if I will buy in July $16's for lt;25c, they might easily 10-bag image
    I like it. A guy at my workplace has been touting the trades that are anti-Brexit. Calls or call spreads EWU can turn out.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    CERN to me looks like it is going to keep sliding down to some $45-$50 range...I see it has earnings outside May 5... I see it will creep up IVR somewhat to the earnings, and that means that you might do a cheap calendar, except it has only monthlies, so the Apr expiry options don't get you too close to the 5/5 ER. . .anyway, you could do the Apr/May $60 calls calendar for 18c....prolly will not get there by Apr, but you'll be at the $60 long May calls 18c comms in the hole maybe ch a bullish pop on the ER. ....in the calendar P/L below I take it to the Apr opex using a 10 percent...
    I was thinking about CERN a bit more long-term. The business is currently trading at probably its forwards PE that is lowest in quite some time and is in a growth segment of the healthcare biz. Earnings could shake out a little lower as some of the optimism becomes rung from the stock, but I like the business. I'd throw in a few more positives. CEO/Founder (who already possesses about $1bn of the stock) just bought another 400k shares about a month ago. Granted that is not hugely important since he already possess 22.9m shares, but I like the vote of confidence. Growth Cashflow proceeds to look pretty good ($2.9bn revenue in 2013, $3.4bn 2014, $4.4bn this past year, and projections for over $5bn in 2016).

    In a technical perspective, I believe you wait to find out whether it retains $50 and can use that as a wonderful place to get long with a rather skinny stop loss. Or you can give it more room. But I'm thinking more like a year holding stage on that, maybe not a quick hit at the options market (not that I've anything against quick money manufacturers!!) . If anything I'd probably be taking a look at call spreads in 2017 (buy the $50 strike, sell the $70 strike).

    EDIT: One drawback I just noticed is the CEO just declared he has cancer, so that is never good...

  9. #9
    One I did recently fits a pattern I am on the lookout for - that the megaspike followed by fast (if only partial) backslide. Which were GWPH, 1 spike $37 to close $92 (3/11), slid back to near $70 2 days afterwards. With it trading about $86 on the day that I purchased Apr $70/55 bear puts vertical for 2 dollars, 2 days after. Woohoo. Sad story 2 days later I had been putting in sickbed with influenza, had a gtc on it got out, that trade is currently underwater. Say la vee.

    But the pharma stocks are all good places to look for the big spikes - they don't always immediately reunite, so options plays on these spikes are pretty dicey...

  10. #10
    Besides the individual business names, you will find five or four underlyings I like to trade on a regular basis because they have decent levels, and that I do not get overwhelmed with all the charting a thousand distinct titles: they're FXE (the Euro proxy), GLD/GDX/GDXJ/GG (gold ETF's), along with XOP/OIH (oil and gas etf's). I really don't play silver much, but it correlated to gold, so if GLD pricey for you, it is also possible to look instead.

    With FXE, look for comparable levels as are present in EURUSD:

    I have been shorting on intensity just at or around 112-112.50 (basically, EURUSD 1.14 or so):



    Together with GLD, I am seeking to add short positions around 120-121, because it seems to be reluctant to violate higher through the long-term .236 Fib from the 2011 high into the 2015 low:



    If GLD is too pricey for you, look at GDX, GDXJ, or even GG; their trajectory is similar, as is that of SLV (the silver ETF).

    XOP is the oil and gas mining ETF. I have just been initiating a long position at price extremes. The problem recently, however, is that it (and oil) recently made a new low, and the pricing of oil is subject to a little speculation. My thinking there's that, instead of call a bottom, seem to go little with various places, so that your cost basis in the internet position is something that has a reasonable shot profitabllity on one of these upmoves ... .

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