The Trade Balance numbers tomorrow morning , watch. The amounts will be greater than what is anticipated. I't is going to be a scalping prospect that is good.
The Trade Balance numbers tomorrow morning , watch. The amounts will be greater than what is anticipated. I't is going to be a scalping prospect that is good.
I start to beleive it doesnt matter what the number will be. . .if that the marketplace is nevertheless dollar bulls then it can have the broader deficit ever and we can still observe the dolar rally....
(like back I believe November if we had a record deficit of $68bill along with the buck not only didnt get a drop but we had fresh highs for the euro of 1.18 I beleive or something like this...)
so we shall see from the dawn what the transfer will be and dont forget its friday so we might have some rounding up in places ahead of weekend...
Gerard,Originally Posted by ;
You appear to have some inside information that the majority of us don't. Would you mind elaborating on why you are so confident the numbers will be higher than expected? Sounds like you've got an in somewhere that could be helpful.
Thanks.
The amounts will be reflected by the report of tomorrow for April. In April petroleum prices hit an all time high. This ought to be reflected in the report of tomorrow. The expected 3Billion increase doesn't hit me enough.
Then does not that imply that a dollar if the number is more unfavorable for transaction equilibrium? So it is a good explanation for the euro to recoup from today's lost?
True. However, the dollar was also low in April, which ought to have given a bit of a boost to exports.
I am forecasting a better than anticipated trade equilibrium and additional slip in the EURUSD pair.
Originally Posted by ;
It wouldnt recover by far IMO. The EURO is in a downtrend now.
Originally Posted by ;
I think we can do better on this discussion compared to speculate on which way a moderately important economic report goes. I'm uncertain how much trading expertise you have, Gerard, but I feel a post like yours can be somewhat misleading to a different trader. Any news statement is an chance for scalping. In my view, attempting to anticipate which way it's going to proceed based on what that news record will state leads to certain disaster.
Take this for a moment. Yesterday the ECB announced a rate increase. The growth was perfectly in line with forecasts. Everyone knew that it was going to occur, at that level. The dilemma is that there were a significant number of traders who HOPED the ECB would raise rates higher. There's no economic survey to indie the HOPE traders have in a particular report. With any information, trade data as well, we know exactly what the economic forecast is, but, can you inform me exactly what the monumental market makers are hoping the numbers will emerge to be?
Here's another arguement why people wouldn't want to make predictions about a motion based on a news report. It's true that the trade balance will come out now, but, do you know that there is a sister report to this report? It's called Web Foreign Purchases. A large trade imbalance is not good for your dollar, but it will not be reflected in the foreign exchange market if traders believe the imbalance will not be covered by Net Foreign Purchases. So, not only do you need to forecast what traders anticipate the trade imbalance numbers to be, you also need to predict what they think the net foreign purchases number will be as well, which does not come out now. Furthermore, Bernanke is speaking today at 11, albeit in a commencement ceremony. Nevertheless, you will never know how the market will respond to anything he says. In fact, they may dismiss the trade numbers until he speaks.
My suggestion for new traders is to work on a system for trading information and statements. There's usually good motion during these times. However, it requires expertise and quite a bit of economics background, in addition to some good inside information about trader opinion, to be able to predict movement direction based on the fundamentals of an eco friendly report. See the charts. They will tell you exactly what you need to know.
Regards,
Dear Stockwet,
I don't necessarily disagree with you, but keep in mind, I am curious in a scalping prospect. You are right, a lot more info goes into deciding what and why to scalp than only a report release. If a person is new to this requires a bit of homework; therefore a bit more detail about why this is such a fantastic opportunity would have been helpful.
Because of the long term structural problems confronting the US Dollar, Though the amounts came in below expectations that the Industry still responded:
Inside 30 - 40 minutes the following occurred:
USD/CHF 50pips
USD/JPY 50pips
GBP/USD 90pips
EUR/USD 60pips
If you are a scalper that is exactly what You're Searching for. Actually it's more than I'd expected in light of those amounts. Do not jump in before the market begins to move.
Bernanke: it is a graduation speech, who is aware of what he is going to say?
I actually feel sorry for the man. He is between a rock and a hard loion. His only option is a Hobson's choice.
Thank you for adding the thickness. I guess these forums are visited by me and I see a lot of vague advice. Indeed, I'm likely a culprit, too. Not to single you out, but, I believe I'd have liked to have seen an initial post like ...
Tomorrow's trade balance amounts may supply a superb scalping opportunity and this is my approach for entering and exiting the trade ...
I think that would have been an excellent post kicking off a very interesting thread on scalping.
Regards,
Originally Posted by ;