Thread: Rokanet Trading Diary

My idea is simple: identify the trend, expect a correction, enter, that the trend continues, exit, another correction, enter again... and so on. I know it sounds easier than it really is. In the image below I show how I define trend and recoil. Vertical lines with arrows indicate possible entry points. I also use Fibonacci's backs and expansions, as Mouteki teaches. This journal has two main objectives: Stay focused with analysis and practice more. Find ideas and help from you. NOTE: I am not an experienced trader, so please don't follow my operations without doing your own analysis. Also, English is not my mother tongue, excuse if there are grammatical errors.

Monthly view: Fibonacci's regression levels show us where we are and where we could go. The Fibo area in 4182 seems to be the next target. I'm not entirely sure if this is the right map, time will tell. Daily indicator view: daily downward trend, weekly bullish, monthly bassist, and it seems that the weekly bullish trend is losing strength. At the same time, the daily bassist also seems to be running out. I prefer to expect a correction to the Fibo area 1598 (108.16, with level 0 in 124.13

The USDJPY retreat towards the 108th zone seems to be ending, which could mean the beginning of a new descent. I am looking to enter 15min or 5min charts, waiting for a 61.8% or 38.2% regression, and for the STLM to confirm the bassist impulse. From there, the fall would follow to 105.8 or 104.4, which are marked Fibo zones. Note: all this analysis is simply my personal ideas. Please do not operate without doing your own task. All kinds of opinions are appreciated.

The 5-minute STLM seems to work well as an input trigger. Sometimes, effectiveness depends on the �spectral analysis� or frequency cycle, an idea that still needs to be tested more. Anyway, I shorted in USDJPY in the sky blue arrow, as I mentioned before, and I follow the movement towards the 105-104 zones. Let time confirm it, I do not claim to know anything about the future.

I entered 107.16 and am letting the position run towards 105, I already carry about +150 pips and a profit/loss ratio of 1.6. Now I am waiting for it to fall to the 104 zone and then 100, I hope it will arrive soon. Time will tell. The only thing that I am clear is that the market will always have the last word. My job is to follow the plan and respect the levels.

The area of 104 and also 101 were reached. I closed everything with a profit of more than 600 pips. Waiting has been the most important factor in this medium-term trade. The market is very volatile right now, so I prefer to stay out until the waters calm down. Positions closed completely.

I re-checked the STLM at different times and honestly, it starts to look more like a lottery than a reliable indicator. It�s fine to confirm trends, but as a main entry... it doesn�t convince me. In small temporalities you get into fake moves and in big ones you�re late. I�m going to keep testing, but I�m already considering combining it with some fast moving media or even some candle pattern to filter signals better. I appreciate any suggestions, especially from those who have experience with STLM or similar systems.

Today I opened an operation in USDJPY based on the theory of regression, but the price spat on my face. Instead of respecting the entry zone, it broke hard and left me a good negative. It is clear that the system is not yet ready for high volatility conditions. I will review the Fibonacci configuration and adjust levels. Perhaps the error was to rely too much on a static pattern when the market is reacting to fundamental data. We have to adapt, or the market teaches you by force.

Many have written to me saying that the system seems promising but has gaps. And they are right. This is not magic or infallible formula. If it were so easy, we would all be retired on an island of the Caribbean. What I am trying to do is simply systematize a logical way of reading the market. If this evolves, great. And if not, it will at least serve as a basis for something more solid. This is about trial and error, not being right to the first.

I have received some criticism saying that this is another system of overoptimization that works in the past but fails live. And what did you expect? A holy grail hung on a forum? Obviously needs adjustments and evolution. The good thing is that those who really understand that trading is not pushing a button and winning, are bringing real ideas. That�s why I stay. Haters, thanks also, their complaints motivate me more.