[Link eliminated] "Let's see Carry Trades for a long time," said Gabriel de Kock, a currency chief economist at Citigroup Global Markets in New York, at a Forex conference in Singapore."The yen will be a dog."If Yen will be a dog, what will the pound be?
That would make the pound the master who kicks the dog when he wants, makes him cry and sometimes gives him leftovers, just enough to keep him alive.Seriously, that guy was wrong.Yen is not anyone's dog.The Yen is the dog of the pound!Period: 27 months.Account balance: +265%.Maximum DD: 15.2%.
Citi already made a big mistake earlier this year.They said the dollar would be strengthened compared to the main currencies.Hopefully this time they don't fail so much.Trading is a business.
So ... Is the pound the owner?I guess it sounds logical.But who knows?This is Forex, everything can change in a second.
It seems that Citigroup is playing to be guess again.The Yen has been "a dog" for years according to them, but continues to resist and complicate the traders.If everything were as simple as labeling coins, we would all be millionaires.As for the pound, it seems rather a capricious cat that suddenly collapses and then jumps without warning.In the end, the only rule in Forex is that there are no fixed rules.
The yen will be a dog, they say ... Well, like a dog, because every time it seems weakened, it returns more force and bites where it hurts the most.You just have to see what happens when the Carry Traders trust too much.If the pound is the master, it must be a master with financial problems, because sometimes it seems not to know what to do with his own economy.
Another meaningless prediction of investment banks?What a surprise.In 2007 they said that the euro went to the moon, in 2008 everyone ran to the dollar as a refuge, and now they want to sell us the idea that the Yen will be a simple pet of Carry Trade.The reality is that Yen always finds a way to annoy those who underestimate it.That they continue to believe in dogs and masters, the market will be in charge of giving them a lesson.
Maybe Yen is a dog, but rather it looks like a chained pitbull.When they release it, sweep everything.They have underestimated it before and has shown that it is not possible to trample so easy.And about the pound ... Well, that seems rather a chameleon, changing color according to the latest news of the BOE or any politician on duty.
If Yen is a dog, then the Swiss Franco is a lone wolf and the dollar is a lazy old man who still commands in the pack.In this game, everything depends on who has more fangs when the crisis arrives.The problem is that many believe that Carry Trade is a free ticket.Until Yen wakes up and sends everything to the devil in a matter of hours.
And what happens if Yen is not a dog, but a cunning fox?It would not be the first time that he cheats the traders and makes them pay expensive their arrogance.In this market, blindly trust what an investment bank says is almost as dangerous as leaving your car's keys in the hands of a stranger.
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