Fundamental Trading

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quote Clearly the President of the USA has got the ability to move markets http://news.forexlive.com/!/video-wh...olicy-20170209

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Yes the president gets the ability to move the market mainly due to the belief he can place on the market.

With that being said, it is the Central Banks that have control. They literally have their hands on the supply tap in any way times. Therefore, if the president opinion is moving the market too much in a way the central bank does not like, they have the tools to steer the market to where it has to be right back.

Just some things to remember.

I'll have a section about market sentiment and the way it plays into the fundamentals posted eventually.

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For this interested. Baby Sisyphus has arrived and he's a healthy boy! picture

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Congratulations of your new born.

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quote Not always about FX, more about fundamentals in general, but by far one of my favorites. image

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Thank you very much and heartiest congratulations on being parent! Wishing you lots of pleasure with your little one!

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quote Thus, does cutting rates increase or reduce the supply of currency? Thanks

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It doesn't increase or reduce it. Rates simple translates into money's expense. Increasing and decreasing is completed (without actually removing money from the system) through reserve adminiion. In case the central bank increases reserve needs banks have cash to give. Reserve requirements can also reduce letting banks more freedom.

Congratulations!!! https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780318.png

AHHHH boy, God bless him and all household !!!!

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For this interested. Baby Sisyphus has arrived and he is a healthy boy! image

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Congrats Sis. Fantastic news. Do not overlook the mandatory bed-time reading.

If--
By Rudyard Kipling

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired of waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream--and not make dre your master;
If you can think--and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools, then
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up using exhausted resources:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone, then
and thus hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold'

If you're able to talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings--nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but not too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of space,
Yours is the Earth and everything that is in it,
And--which is more--you'll be a Man, my son!

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For this interested. Baby Sisyphus has arrived and he is a healthy boy! picture

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Hearty Congratulations Chief...https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780319.pnghttps://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780319.pnghttps://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780319.pnghttps://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780319.pnghttps://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780319.pnghttps://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780319.pnghttps://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780319.png

Really Happy that Everyone is Safe and Healthy...

Baby Sisyphus seems like he is going to rock the entire world.

Big thanks, https://www.forexforum.co.za/cryptoc...ng-ea-exe.html, lot of crazies on FF, but in addition, there are kind and wise folks ready to share, you are certainly one of the weakest.

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enormous thanks, https://www.forexforum.co.za/general...profit-dt.html, lot of crazies on FF, but in addition, there are kind and wise folks willing to talk about, you are definitely one of the latter.

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Thank you for the kind words baldmonk. I am glad you have found this thread helpful.

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quote Congrats Sis. Great news. Do not overlook the mandatory bed-time reading. Should By Rudyard Kipling If you can keep your head when all about you Are losing theirs and blaming it on you, if you're able to trust yourself when all men doubt you, But make allowance for their doubting too; If you can wait and not be tired by waiting, Or being lied about, dont deal in lies, Or being hated, dont give way to hating, And yet dont seem too good, nor talk too wise: If you can dreamand not make dre your master If you can thinkand not make thoughts your aim; Should...

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Thanks for the kind words C. I also adore the reading you submitted!

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quote Thanks for the kind words C. I also love the reading you submitted!

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Cheers Sys.....special times need special poems. It's my favourite out of what my Dad read to me personally.

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With this particular interested. Baby Sisyphus has arrived and he is a healthy little boy! image

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Congrats to the new addition to your loved ones!

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quote Thank you for the kind words C. I also adore the reading you posted!

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Hello Chief,

Hoping everything is okay at your end...https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780319.png

Global Indiors: https://tradingeconomics.com/indiors

So glad I found this thread, my teachers been banging on analysis on fundamental and studying through this it's actually changed my mindset. They go hand in hand it is the people who move the market not the amounts. Thanks again and congrats on the baby!

Hi Sis.yphus
My question has to do with GDP, there are three readings Advance, Preliminary, and Final. Could deepen a little bit more in each of them and based on what of the three has more relevance for purposes of analysis of expansion.
I'm also interested that reading GDP (m/m, q/q, yearly) you've got more in mind, although I suppose it is connected to the spend profile in time.
Thank you.

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Global Indiors: https://tradingeconomics.com/indiors

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Really Useful Jusiur...https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780319.png

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Constructing a Classifier - Part 2 As I already mentioned in part one, we are going to attempt to enhance our algorithm spot checking results by boosting our inputs to see if we could get more accurate outputs. I spoke about perhaps using some kind of an RSI or an EMA and I chose to start along with their results with the RSI data of the 2 bars. So we have added to inputs to your own algorithm. Everything else is exactly the same. We are spot checking the 5 distinct algorithms employing a 10k-fold cross-validation to make sure that the outcomes are not flukes....

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You should be careful when working on such small datasets. It is always good to include a guess for comparison, then you can get something similar to the outcome that is attached: All algorithms seem to work such as RDG which means guessing that is random. Why is this? In this situation it's the size of the dataset (1000) bars combined with an optimization algorithm trying to find the best set of indiors to use. The optimization finds something functioning seemingly even for RDG since even the monkey get's lucky somtimes - and the others do not look much better!


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Hi Everybody,

I've just found this forum header and I feel it's the best one available and we all need to share our comprehension.

Fundamentals are what pushes markets and orders what way ultimately the price will go.

I feel we should all share our trading penetration here as ultimately we can all make money together.

Has anyone here afford to have enormous success only trading fundamentals?

Fundamentals don't drive markets, it's opinion of players, but it can be the alyst to begin something. Buyers and sellers proceed prices. Utilizing a mix of Fundamental, Sentiment and Technical analysis will help ensure longevity and success.

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quote Instance of Sentiment Lol this sentiment post is getting way over hyped. It is really simple. Look at the EURUSD and USDCHF the previous couple weeks. CHF and EUR have been strengthening since the market priced in Macron triumph, the candidate, which makes sense why it might induce people to buy the EUR. This movement was entirely depending on the emotion or sentiment of the market that the EU's death won't come as people. He also won, but does this alter the fundamentals of each currency? If anything it's worse for...

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I understand such events create sentiment on the market but I was thinking if there are a way to ascertain the sentiment on day to day basis?

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quote I understand such events produce sentiment on the market but I was thinking if there are a means to ascertain the sentiment on day to day basis?

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That would be a holy grail, my buddy...

The closest and easiest thing I would recommend is that you could use HA candles or even merely the open traces of the daily candles. To ascertain the current sentiment of daily candles. The candle is above the open or if they are green, of course the sentiment of the market is up. And vice.

It is very straightforward though. Again examine the last months of the pairs I mentioned. Fundamentally these currencies ought to be going down, but they were not, day following day they kept rising. This lets you know that the sentiment of the market is contrary to the fundamental trend.

And I previously mentioned that sentiment is based on qualitative data, such as geo-political news.

Hi I support you and I am glad that finally found a fundamental forex trader which seems to be very rare in my opinion.What I want to ask you is can you recommend more literature about forex fundamentals?

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Hello I fully support you and am thankful that eventually discovered a fundamental Currency Market trader which seems to be somewhat uncommon in my opinion.What I would like to ask you is will you recommend more literature about Currency Market fundamentals?

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Not always about Currency Market, more about fundamentals generally, but by far one of my favorites.

https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachm...0351039635.jpg

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quote Not always about Currency Market, more about fundamentals generally, but undoubtedly one of my favorites. image

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Thanks for the recommendation Chief! https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780591.png

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quote Not necessarily about FX, more about fundamentals in general, but undoubtedly one of my favorites. image

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could u give us a pair of setups or situations you seem when u make a trade using fundamentals?

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quote Not always about forex, more about fundamentals generally, but by far one of my favorites. picture

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Chief,

A petition from my end. Upon rereading your articles, you left a nugget of gold, asking to studying the connection between bond yield and currency prices.

While I did my study, you have a method of describing things that's sharp and ties up lots of items. Could you please include a primer bond yield, currency prices and interest rates come together? Https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780591.png

Thanks

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quote Chief, A request from my conclusion. Upon rereading your posts, you left a nugget of gold, asking to looking into the connection between bond return and currency prices. While we did my research, you have a way of describing and ties up many items. Could you include a primer , how bond return, currency prices and interest rates come together? Https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780591.png Due

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Some Advice on Bonds

There are two Kinds of bonds. Corporate and Government. We care about government bonds.

When interest rates rise, the price of government bonds go down, and that means their yields go up (investors get a much better return for buying the bonds).

When interest rates fall, the price of the government bonds go up, the return goes down.

For the ones that don't know the return is the coupon sum divided by the price of the bond.

Better returns imply more investors, like big pension fund managers, and investors, in general, will want to buy these government bonds. In order to do so, they need to buy the currency of the nation in which the bonds are being issued by the government. This is demand for bonds, will boost demand for a currency.

When yields are low in 1 nation, funds will invest in different countries bonds to safeguard themselves. Again, they need to sell their currency and buy the currency to buy the bond. This lessens the need of the country's currency as individuals sell and boost the need of the country's currency as individuals convert their cash to buy bonds.

These trades don't occur in a day (the selling/purchasing of the new currency and the purchasing of their new bond). These individuals(all of the different big fund managers around the world) are handling billions and billions of dollars, so that they can not just make the trade in 1 order. Sometimes it takes weeks or even months to allow them to fully convert their cash so that they can buy the bonds that they desire. They do not want to just flooding the market with orders since they want to attempt to find the very best price when they convert their cash, and if all the funds around the world did it once, flooding the market would get the price to wreck along with also the price goes too low, the charge to get into the bond might become bigger than the yield they were planning on becoming in this first loion.

This reality of the market is among the ways the smaller fish have an advantage over the bigger fish. If you know these funds will be moving into a single currency, you can get in the exchange in a single second as you're handling a small sum of money (even if you're trading with millions). Whereas these funds can not, they need to get into the position.

This generates two major waves within a market move. The 1st wave is caused by speculators trying to get into before/while the funds begin to get in, because the funds require their cash to be converted by weeks/months and also the wave is a more longer and constant push. The second wave is almost always bigger than the first.

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quote Some Information on Bonds There are two types of bonds. Corporate and Government. We care about government bonds. When interest rates rise, the price of government bonds go down, and that means their yields go up (investors get a better return for buying the bonds). When interest rates drop, the price of the government bonds go up, the yield goes down. For the yield is the coupon amount divided by the price of the bond. Better returns mean more investors, like large pension fund managers, and investors, generally speaking, will...

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Awesome! Thank you for obliging my request. Lucky to have you as my mentor...https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780591.png

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quote Some Information on Bonds There are two types of bonds. Corporate and Government. We care about bonds. When interest rates rise, the price of government bonds return, which means their yields go up (investors receive a better return for buying the bonds). When interest rates drop, the price of the government bonds go up, the yield goes down. For the ones who don't know the yield is the coupon sum divided by the price of the bond. Better returns mean more investors, such as big pension fund managers, and investors, in general, will...

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I've read about this earlier, but I certainly feel like I'm learning it for the first time. Thanks for your English explanation.

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quote Some Advice on Bonds There are two kinds of bonds. Corporate and Government. We care about bonds. When interest rates rise, the price of government bonds go down, and that means their yields go up (investors get a better return for buying the bonds). When interest rates fall, the price of the government bonds go up, the return goes down. For those who don't know the return is the voucher amount divided by the price of the bond. Better returns imply more investors, like large pension fund managers, and investors, in general, will...

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Chief,

As usual a Gem of a post...https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachments/1524780592.jpg

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Originally Posted by ;

quote Some Information on Bonds There are two kinds of bonds. Corporate and Government. We care about bonds. When interest rates rise, the price of government bonds go down, which means their yields move up (investors get a much better return for buying the bonds). When interest rates fall, the price of the government bonds go up, the yield goes down. For the ones that don't know the yield is the voucher sum divided by the price of the bond. Better yields imply more investors, like large pension fund managers, and investors, generally speaking, will...

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Chief,

This is exactly what I understand: Please correct where you see fit

a. Price of a Bond and Bond Yield have inverse Relationship: When price of a bond goes up; Yield goes...

b. Interest Rates and Bond Yield go in Tandem.


1. As an Example, If we consider that the US 30 Year T-Bond:

https://www.investing.com/rates-bond...treaming-chart

Hypothetically we deduce Either Via TA, FA or any other Method which the Price of US-30 Year T-Bond is headed down .

So that the yield of US 30 Year T-Bond should go up that will also indie that the Interest Rate of USA will also go up?

My query is based on the price of the Bonds can you predict the Interest Rate changes which are going to occur?


2. You Mentioned:

Here is how demand for bonds, will boost demand for a currency.

To Evaluate the Demand for a Bond, do we Examine the Bond Price or Bond Yield?

Typically a Higher Price for X Entity will indie Increased demand.

But higher bond price means lower yield which is the rate of recurrence, a very low return means less need.

I'm confused as to which to look at?


Due

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Welcome to the MENTAL Trading.

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k

I want understand how can us inflation affect the gold prices at what rate?

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I want know how does us inflation affect the gold prices at what rate?

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Gold games inflation. Gold return is a lot higher than the US inflation rate but that is because the US and the major Central banks changed the way they compute inflation to mask each year, how much of their citizens wealth is being destroyed. From the US this specifically happened when Bill Clinton was still president.

Gold includes a true turn average of approximately 10% a year since they changed how inflation is calculated. Should you use the older method to calculate the US's inflation rate, you will see it is actually fitting the return of gold.

Should you look back 100 years and compare infation rate together with the return of gold, you will say they basically match. It's only since the world began hiding true inflation using a new forumula they've deviated from one another.

What I understand is that the us dollar strength has a direct connection to gold prices, I have been using us inflation to track gold prices from January this year and inflation has been at 2.7 and moved down to 2.4 at April but gold just started to move down at 17th April from 1292 to 1216 this month, including to this impact gold was on the rise until it reached the high of 1292 by the onset of this year despite inflation falling. Is inflation a alyst for transferring gold prices?

Gold is different I would like to use us macro economics to forecast gold prices, is this possible and if so which facets should be tracked to demone this?


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quote 1. No, definitely not. You have to look at the larger picture of what and understand how an event will affect the market be it bad or good. Like using the AUD release, you go see what the Central Bank says about employment, you then go and see exactly what the analysts say the news will be. Do they think it will get better or worse? We had two employment and the CB said they desired to see it get much better. This means, if the numbers are away, we since the bank are far off course, which will frighten investors, if the amounts are...

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Chief,

Upon rereading this post, I have a query.

You said:

This means we'll eventually become a scenario in which the RBA reductions rate, diminishing the supply of the currency and the Fed hikes rates, raising their supply.

What I understand:

A Central Bank cuts rate once it wants to grow the inflation that signifies an increase the supply of currency and hiking rates signifies decrease inflation that means decrease in supply of currency.


Thus, does cutting rates increase or reduce the supply of currency?

Thanks

US business cycle is currently in early up cycle Fed will hike rate in next couple decades. Yield of US bonds will grow as industry cycle rise.
Thus, US dollar will rise if trump doesn't intervene.

US boost, then, China will boost. Then, commodity boost. Thus, RBA will hike rate.

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quote Chief, Upon rereading this post, I have a query. That being said: This means we will move into a scenario where the RBA cuts rate, decreasing the supply of the currency and the Fed hikes rates, increasing their supply. What I know: A Central Bank cuts rate when it wants to increase the inflation which means an increase the supply of currency and trekking rates means decrease inflation which means reduction in distribution of currency. So, does cutting rates rise or reduce the distribution of currency? Thanks

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You have to to remember the rates are significant. If the rate is large, it means it costs money for individuals and business and banks to invest money. This slows growth in the market as individuals have less access to cheap money, which slows inflation because inflation is caused by increase along with also the printing of money. When rates are high and money becomes more costly to borrow, there is less in the market as it is just better to maintain the currency instead of spending it. So as rates are rising and will continue to do this individuals are going to want to buy the currency and to buy bonds and invest as this is when the market is in expansion(which is why rates are rising), but after rates peak and the market peaks, folks will be watching to another cycle to begin and to get rates to be cut as growth and inflation slow too much because of the way large rates have gotten.

Rates being low means money is inexpensive to borrow so folks wish to get money and spend it, they don't wish to hold onto it. This spending triggers growth and inflation to grow. We have been in a hard core recession the past couple of years after you factor in the true inflation numbers, which is why rates here and across the world are at 300 year highs and in some countries they are going. This because banks need people to gain access to kick start the market.

But as Jack stated, we are are beginning to move from the base of the economic cycle back into the expansion period where rates will probably continue to rise out the expansion to prevent growth and inflation from going out of control as the market expands.

Its not too much about where the rates are that causes supply and demand to change, it is where the market thinks they're going next. And this impacts growth and inflation since remember, the leading indiors are of the coincident indiors, and such indiors are 6-12 months before their lagging indiors.