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Some take-away's from yesterday which was a fantastic day for me personally.
#1 the Three Hills and a Mountain pattern worked flawlessly. It was not an ideal pattern in you could argue if that was three four or mountains, but seemed very much like the timeless pattern. In addition to the volume that kicked in at the beginning of the Mountain was significant.
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#2
previously, a very dumb and frequent mistake I used to commit was taking profits to a solid breakout and turning to brief for more, and then eventually giving it all back (and more) in shorts. There was selling pressure during the evening and there were several great looking bear pubs as the rally stalled. But checking higher timeframes gives you a whole picture why shorting here is a terrible idea -- you would be shorting where 4-Hour longs are getting in to a perfect two-bar reversal setup at least for a measured move scalp up -- if there will be follow through fro them remains to be seen, but they are definitely driving for a measured move up.
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Had an excellent day yesterday, the market gave me three times my current daily aim. It seems good, but it is far more important now to thank God and realize that this is just a lucky streak and the favourable wide range states that we had yesterday, which might be completely gone today. Will be taking at least half a day off to clear the mind and not jump right to the market (well, I actually still have a minilot long in profit from yesterday night, but I grabbed myself that this was probably the first measure to overtrading, very risky, so will just leave it with a BE cease to fend for itself).
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Insight from yesterday. Took this trade because I saw bulls setting themselves up for a trap. Buyers were getting very strong signs and entries in terms of price action and greater and better prices to get in with a hope for a High of the dawn breakout. But that's too good to be true -- the market providing you with cheap entries and then a spike to give you your profits. This was probably just an algo scalp commerce to check the surface of the range and run some weak bear ceases, and many bulls remained trapped then added fuel to the selloff that followed.
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Must do some review and soul-searching -- as soon as I skipped my critique and cut back on preparation in the midst of different obligations and dissipation (but really unwillingness to take responsibility for outcomes...), my trading moved down the drain, lost Wednesday's profit by today to some unprepared trades, overtrading and undisciplined trading. Can not overestimate the importance of preparation and mental rehearsal to prevent this kind of nonsense. On Thursday, I lost because I ventured trading bigger size than justified by my egy (0.8), chickened out and widened my ceases to take a couple of hits.
Friday was profitable, but on small size (fearful to exchange bigger without preparation routines), along with also the day's profits were erased and some more lost during volatility in the day on bigger dimensions, making several fade efforts against the bull breakout. So, lesson number one is to walk away after reaching the daily profit goal, which I did not (and I'd reached the profit target). Another lesson is not to perform transactions which were not ready for techcnically in advance and are based on ideas derived just by watching current volatility.
The take-away from today (Friday), for we need something positive, not just whining about the money dropped. The morning shorts functioned well. The reason for carrying them was that the bulls were having difficulty even reaching the bear channel trendline on 5 min (drawn across candle highs) and promoting pressure just looked stronger (more consecutive bear bars, closes low). Plus that was just a pullback on both and one hour timeframes. These became good swing trades . Pity I have attached to the brief idea and proceeded shorting on the bull breakout carrying many many little scratch cuts and bleeding each the day's profit and some more as a outcome.
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A thought, triggered by discussion on a different thread, reposting it in my journatl:
Unlike what many ego-driven retail traders think, the market is not a zero-sum match of wills and forecasts in regards to specific trades and profits. The entire market might be zero-sum in the end (though it is not really, because new money is being issued all of the time), but each single trade is a win-win to the individual traders. Every trader passes because you sees an chance to win money and exits either to make profit or to shield one's money (which is still a win choice in comparison to taking a larger loss). It is not a one-day match, either, since you open with one counterparty and depart with another. The market is a fair game of chance for everyone to choose what's he/she feels entitled to and capable of carrying, through careful preparation and execution of the plans in a systematic way. People who bring their small egos and wish to make them larger on the market and want every transaction or most trades to become winners, or become winners of prediction, ought to be ready to suffer lots of pain and disappointment.
Seeing a solid bull case now technically: there is an NR7 bull setup on the Daily (breakout out of a seven day tight range, breakout occurring over the lowest in a set of seven pubs in the consolidation), by a lower-low trend adjustment setup at that. The breakout bar of Friday was very strong, and if there is to be follow , bulls will probably be getting in on a retracement of the Daily bar, first round mid-body, then on a volatile test under its body. Have entered Extended on the 1 HR Moving-Average Gap set up, tight stop as always, scalp in already. But odds low given the bearish momentum. If stopped out, will be looking to re-enter B with a tight stop round 1.2445 as a fast test back to the tight range middle and the micro-trend line on the Daily chart.
I see this idea supported on 1H, since the bull BO of Friday was a third push up, and because the third push succeeded as a breakout (we are now might be watching a breakout test of the broken bear channel trendline), it calls for a bull profit target from the 1.263-1.266 area. At the level (or another climax above it) I'd consider switching to momentary based upon price action. But currently searching for buy setups only.
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Buying anything that moves up now, really tight stops of course. Will probably become many small losses and breakeven scratches, but hope to ch the big momentum up when (and when ) it happens. Seeing a slightly higher low and second strong bull signal onto a swing low, possibly the beginning of a rounded base change. Buying pressure building up, but flushout still probably and wouldn't be unexpected.
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Out breakeven, no movement. Will await the news.
US news not great, long again, but not anticipating a runner before Draghi, a BE position at best to be set for the big news today.
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Outside breakeven, no follow through, a srong bear signal bar instead - double top bear flag, some bulls probably trapped, reversed to Short. Strong bear entry pub, larger pub, near reduced, will endure for a lower low if follow within three pubs, targeting 1.245.
-- no instant follow throug, breakout pullback, bull inside pub, strongish, next two bars key for bears.
-- yet another bull doji, trying to depart at BE or scratch with reduction
-- out with two pip loss, but re-entered market down, outside expanding range
-- trending figures, 3 consecutive bear closes, tight bear channel emerging
-- took 0.1 off at 9 pip profit, cease to close BE, swing the rest, leaving until Draghi. Stopped out.
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Going back to my long idea -- will wait for 1.432 place to be analyzed before buying.
Buying pressure emerges at the top of the anticipated support zone, looking to buy. On 1H, it seems somewhat like closing flag from the former consolidation before news, which might fail. Tight end of course. Seeking to get out breakeven if run, and reestablish as a tight fade buy on the road lower down to 1.43.
OUT only below breakeven, doesn't look good for the bulls.
Re-entered buy back on the outside up bar, thinking any up momentum out of this amount may nevertheless lead to panic brief covering and always-in extended again. But want a close above EMA within the upcoming few bars, somewhat risky.
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Tick up-tick down pretty intensive, seems like something's about to moveup or down.
No, seems a dead cause, out -2 pips.
EU 5M
Looking to Short EURUSD. Currently seeing a bull effort 5 min to break over the bull channel median line. However, the bulls have had three successive buy climaxes and some selling pressure is more evident. Trailing a Sell Stop order below bull bars for down an outside movement, but will be seeking to scratch if no high bear momentum. Seeing this as a pullback on the big bear spike earlier in the day.
Gt;gt; Stop order never triggered, entered fade Sell at bar 24.
Gt;The current bull channel appears like some traders trying to position or leave places before the news. If new bulls are buying, their ceases beneath are still a target. On higher timeframes, 15M to 1H, the bull channel appears like a strong microchannel, which might breakout strongly in either direction, but I feel that a bear breakout is much more likely as bears appear to have established a broad bear channel and may want to try beneath the current and yesterday's lows, given that the current signals off the low of the day were not too persuasive.
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Seeking to buy EURUSD today. On the daily chart I see a double bottom following two closes above the 20 EMA in recent weeks. In the lack of significant news until Wednesday, longer-term bears may be eager to take profits about 1.237 and bring fresh buyers, too. Technically, we have had a clean Low 3 selloff on the daily chart, a perfect scalp for bears on the daily chart, and fast and easy frequently means no follow through. The up movement that followed German news now shows many traders could be thinking at least a retest of the daily EMA from the bulls. I would expect a somewhat tight range , around 40 pip or so, with a potential breakout to the upside.
On 5M we have had a fairly strong bull station (grinding = accumulation?) Followed by a huge down-big up move, which means range play larger overlapping bars. Looking to buy retests of this 1.237 level or a bit lower with a tight prevent or perhaps to chase the bulls onto a strong breakout style setup.
Updategt;
Bars 13-14 broke over two bear micro trendlines, higher momentum, awaiting a signal bar to buy at or below the Low of Bar 1. The maximum measured move target for the current bear tight station is 1.2379. A break below will flip Always In to Short.gt;
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from my very long, 30 pip, faded the Trading Range breakout on another sign short, targeting at the lows of pubs 5 and 12 for retest.
Gt;gt;Update: the brief does not seem good, will depart BE if struck
gt;gt; BE stop not hit bar 42, added to the brief as bar 43 shaped a micro double top, 2 pip stop loss.
Gt;gt; stopped out,
gt;gt;re-entered as likely a bull trap, stop very tight again. Bull entrance bar 45 was triggered on another sign sell Low 2 installment, however, the second sign bar 44 had a bull close. Means either a weak setup along with a rally will follow, or, hopefully, new bulls are trapped along with a larger selloff will follow. Expecting a spike.
Gt;gt;Eventually stopped outside BE.
Gt;gt; Did a few more fades then and got tight ceases struck, but then eventually caught a swing 30 pips. The afternoon was down USD 20. It was a mistake to reverse to brief after the first entry. Just proves my point that one idea is enough and what matters is sticking to it to the end, because the first plan is often best thought out, not so with new ideas which come to mind while trading...
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On the daily chart, EURUSD has set up a double underside major trend reversal -- a perfect double bottom to the pip, and the bull sign bar was very strong, shaved top and underside. The prior underside signal bar was likewise strong. I'd anticipate a range afternoon today, and probably a bull trending range, which may break out to the upside. Searching for longs. We have experienced the first bull spike and I am looking to go long on pullbacks having an ABCD test -- in bull channel shape -- over the high of the day since the minimum goal, and hoping that the breakout could proceed much farther. Alternately, if the range becomes protracted or breaks out to the disadvantage, will still be looking to buy as a retracement on yesterday's powerful daily signal bar.
Gt;gt; UPDATE: scaled so long on pub 8
gt;Bar 11: substantially selling pressure, tight range, exited some and tightened to BE overall.
Gt;Bar 12: bull BO, spike, close near large, Bar 13: breakout pullback, buy the close, but prepared to scratch.
Gt;Bar 14, scratched two entries, no immediate trace through, mid-tight trading range still a magnet, appearing to buy lower.
Gt;UPDATE: a bear Lower High Major Trend Reversal setup, resembles a harmonic Gartley pattern. If it breaks out to the disadvantage, looking to buy about 1.242 if there is a strong sign there, then leaving it one way or the other at the meantime.
Lt;UPDATE, 2 pm: Bears broke two bull TL's, looking to fade a breakout test of their first trendline preceding Bar 25 high - LIMIT order -, tight prevent. Expecting possible Gartley perform in the runup to news.gt;gt; CANCELED the limit order, will hesitate to buy lower.
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Bar 3: a very feeble Low 1 sign for bears.
Bar 4: Failed Low 1 (Entrance Failure) and instant bull spike, first goal reached.
Outside with profit, turned to short as a Two-Bar Reversal formed in a Double Top bear flag.
Exited the short with small reduction on pulback as Second Entrance Sell failed.
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TODAY's OUTLOOK
Looks very choppy and Explosive higher timeframes, H1 and M15. The bears had some great moments last week and seems like they are happy to reestablish their rankings, but the question is at what level. Now I'm only considering it as a potential expanding range (not bull trend just yet despite current price action), which might go either way and produce some wonderful rapid swings for both bulls and bears. This can be corroborated on D1, where we are in the middle of a Pullback into MA, therefore mid-range and anything could happen. Therefore, in the absence of strong and speedy tick action and drive, I'd rather commerce breakout failures compared to chase breakouts.
To help me concentrate and stay disciplined and prevent at least some crap trades (I'd take a couple last Friday despite a very neat a.m. session) I've created a commerce explorer connected to this thread.
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Today's first commerce was an excellent Multi-Timeframe entry, of which I'd love to do more.
On M15, we watched Signal Bar 1 as a very feeble Low 2 sign for a brief, in defence of the broken bear fashion line in a Bull Flag. This was possible to neglect.
On M5, we have a powerful High Two sign reversing that failed breakout. The Signal Bar was great on its own, using a Close Near High, but it was also an Inside-Outside-Inside reversal sign. Produced a scalp that was nice up.
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Currently holding a brief from High of Day and additional after Bar 3, that was a pleasant Shaved Bar Follow Through about the bear spike below MA, signaling a market vacuum and probably flipping to Always-In Short.
Bar 6: Low 1 for bears, but bull Close, a feeble Signal Bar, yet in a chase, so added more to brief. BE place in. The H1 MA20 magnet is right below in the M5 swing lows, so may generate a selloff.
Bar 7: Failed Low 1, tending bull figures, stopped out of latest entries near BE, and exited part of swing brief.
NOTE: High of the Day does not resemble a strong bear reversal yet, might be re-tested.
Bars 8-9: Really feeble High/High 3 entry (bear doji), stopped out bear chasers might want back in, so re-entered brief for potential cease run to H1 MA. Stops tight. Bar 9 closed as Low 2 Signal Bar, but bull shut, so a weak signal. On the flip side, bear chase still in progress, may still work.
Bar 10: No Low 2 entry triggered, bull Bull Micro Channel shaped by now on M5 and M15, bull Breakout probably, just leaving the stops to be struck. BEAR CHASE TURNING INTO BEAR STOP HUNT
Bar 14: nevertheless in. Moved the stops just 1.5 pips so , alas, they were not taken out along with the bears are back from the game.
Bar 15: powerful MicroChannel fracture, but might still test back in the MA before tanking to H1 EMA20.
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SEEING A STRONG HIGH 3 SETUP ON M15 (inside out inside), watching on M5 for bear collapse to switch to long.
Bar 21: preceding two bars failed as Low 1 and Low 1 Second Entrance, and Bar 21 closed near Top, break of bear TL, bears may be covering, entered extended for a HOD retest.
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Bar 23: very interesting. A Breakout faking for bulls, however, bulls did not have a strong sign below, so many bull chasers may be willing to enter as the bear reversal triggers and run stops to a new HOD. Tighened stop and added a buy stop over 23. Looks just like a recipe for a fantastic bull spike.
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Bar 24: Strong Entry Bar for bears on Lower High, additional to the very long lower and both entries were stopped out with a reduction.
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Bar 27: Strong Low 1 entrance for the chasing bears, the reversal failure opens and failed the downside. Sold on Bar 27, took four-pip scalp, holding for the lows. Flipping to Always-In Short.
Bar 29: Bear Spike in progress, searching for measured movement down.
Bar 31: strong two-bar reversal for bulls, a High 4 setup, may fail of course, will reverse to long if triggered above. WAS NOT TRIGGERED, Canceled the buy stop.
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Bar 34: Low 1 Failure, Second Signal Long, entering long upon trigger above.
Reversed to Long, nevertheless viewing the whole of now as a big range, a swing to HOD nevertheless potential.
Bar 38: a very debilitating Low 2 failure for the bears, Close On High, flipping to Always-In Long, added to the long to get a scalp with monitoring overall BE stops.
Bars 40-41: Powerful Low 3 Signal Bar for bears, followed with a solid Entry Bar, exited a portion of this longs, another leg upward likely, but require a bull sign bar today.
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Bar 50 was a strong Low 4 Secondly Entrance signal for the bears, took that you as a small scalp, almost BE. Back to Long as obtained a Greater Low Signal on M15 combined with a Top 1 Entry Bar currently triggering on H1.
SCRATCHED IT, calling it daily.
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TODAY's OUTLOOK
Seeing the H1 range at the 20 EMA is your main magnet today. On D1 we visit a contracting range above EMA 20, nevertheless Always-In Long, but bears are obviously positioning, so large moves and range fakeouts are probably. Seeking to fade those imitation moves since they form large ups and downs and potentially form expanding triangles, buy low sell high. Had my first fade sequence already, holding from BE.
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Bar 1: Low 2 Failure at the MA for bears, strong bull Inside-Outside-Inside sign, added to the lengthy, BE in. A Failed Low 2 installment
Bar 3: Low 2 Secondly Entrance, bulls trapped, but that is little bear doji, looking to prevent out with little loss or a bull spike. STOPPED OUT.
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Bar 5: A Top One to get a third push up, but a doji and back to the range, likely a bull trap, reversed to Short.
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Bar 7: Tight Trading Range, signs appear perfect but do not lead to spikes... Holding the short from BE.
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Bar 29: Big Up Big Down equals range. There was an evaluation of the bull Breakout Point, also in the lack of support, a vacuum spike to the bull Trend Line. The Breakout point today serves as support turned resistance, but is likely to be tested, so looking for a scalp up, after which bears may or may not wish to dump more. The push from Bar 25 was very powerful, including microgaps, the measured move would be far below the fresh bull trend line, if it is broken. When it is not broken, the bears may capitulate, allowing up another leg, at least below the bear trendline from the contracting triangle.
Bars 52-54: a Failed Low One entrance in progress, a few bears trapped. Took profit on my swing position as it went down, but re-entered extended to get a breakout.
Bar 54: Low 1 faking Failed, bears taking over, looking to depart or stop out.
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Hi StopRunFX
I was checking out your thread and determined that you have experience with John Grady's work. Can you comment on it? Is it worth the effort and cash to find out DOM. I value your time and response.
Cheers
Hi Everybody,
Decided to begin this journal to stimulate my growth as a trader and document my studies, commerce analysis, insights and ideas about EURUSD.
A couple of words about myself. I have been trading for four years now, had my ups and downs (more downs than ups, definitely), and have a goal to raise and start trading for a dwelling in the forthcoming two years. I already know this trip to be tough and humbling, and one in personal advancement in the first loion. I trade intraday, searching for scalp entrances with high risk-reward swing potential. My usual stop is 3-6 pips, and I look for trades that may produce at least 15 pips, a 3R multiple. In my trading I utilize the Brooks Price Action methodology for reading market context and market plogy bar-by-bar, but I also look closely at the classic TA chart patterns. The single indior I use is the 20-period EMA. Would love to incorporate Market Profile in my trading, but leaving for the future for the time being.
My trading plan
INSTRUMENT: EURUSD
TIME: European session and US morning session
PREPARATION: Daily analysis of the preceding day's functionality and visualisation (10 minute mental toughness exercise)
METHOD, STEP-BY-STEP:
- Multiple timeframe technical analysis according to Price Action (Dudella patterns, Brooks Price Action)
- Document trade places and thoughts, entries and targets
- Practice 5 min price action chart bar-by-bar based on Brooks Price Action to/at trade loion
- Entry on Tick Chart with tight stops 3-5 pips
- Take off to break even place on the next 5 min pub or scratch
- Breathe and hold to goals, scaling out
- 15 minute break and refocusing