Dilernia model: GBP/USD

Hello, my name is Dilernia, I am a trader based in Sydney. I analyze global markets using various time frames, identify trends and then expect the pattern of greater probability during the trading week (I am not interested in day trading

The pattern of Friday, with a shift from the minimum to the 50% level of the last 5 days, is a pattern that is usually seen within the weekly time frame. The 50% level of 5 days serves as a trend guide for the weekly time frame: they are 5 trading days. This level defines the direction of the weekly closing... A shorter weekly closing will normally try to rotate up the following week back to that same level before deciding the direction of the trend... The current trend is bassist and the likely path is to continue to lower levels... I will try to warn with the next operation, I hope not to be banated again!

I have restarted this thread under GBP/USD analysis in larger time frames in the forum forex discussion...

Since my last post, EUR has continued to fall as part of the stagnant two-day reversal, and with the breaking of the minima in 1.4685. Goal 1.4625, 50% weekly level: it is high risk to operate in lengths below the break-up area on Monday...

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The fall of the pound is just the beginning, buddy. The market smells scary and right now the UK is smelling panic.

Don't fool yourself with small climbs, the road is still downhill as long as we don't regain key levels.

Does anyone see any reliable support below or is the pound in free fall?

The next serious support I see is about 1.10, but with this volatility, it can pierce like butter.

Don't underestimate the ability of the Bank of England to intervene.

Or they won't do anything and they'll blame the market, so they can say that it's the speculators' fault.

I wonder if a change in Brexit conversations could stop this bleeding.

Sure, if tomorrow they announce an extension of the transition period, the pound could bounce hard.

Depending on the policy to save an operation is like playing Russian roulette with six loaded bullets.

I'd rather operate what I see, not what I hope happens to politicians.

Good point. Is anyone operating on patterns or just following the trend?

Tendency, buddy, fighting the current in markets, that's like wanting to stop a train with your hands.

I look for exhaustion patterns, but in these collapses it is risky. Only for brave (or crazy)

The pound has always been a volatile pair, but this surpasses everything I've seen since the referendum.

Do you think it's worth risking shorts with the pound already so low?

There's still room to go down, but the risk increases every pip we fall.

Make sure you protect winnings with a trailing stop if you decide to enter. A quick reversal could get you out of the game.

I prefer to stay out of it until the market shows clear signs of stabilization.

Has anyone seen similar movements in other pairs these days?

EUR/USD is also volatile, but nothing compared to the pound. The Norwegian crown is just as wild.

USD/JPY moves like crazy. When there is global fear, everyone runs to the dollar.

The dollar is the king in times of panic.

If the pound reaches parity with the dollar, would that be a good point to go in long?

Historically it would be a level to try, but the current context is not normal. Be careful.

Parity is psychological. It can cause a technical rebound, but it can also become a black hole.

If you go in long in parity, do it with a small part of your capital. It could be the operation of your life... or your ruin.

Does anyone use fundamental analysis to operate this fall or just technical?

Fundamental. UK growth data are appalling and with coronavirus, worse. I see no reason for a sustained rebound.

I just use technical, the graphics reflect everything the market knows, I don't need any more.

A combination of both is ideal. Ignoring fundamentals is like blindfolding.

So most people keep betting on shorts?

Yes, as long as the trend doesn't change, the path of least resistance is down.

Beware of overconfidence. Many lose just when they think that nothing can go wrong.

Remember: the market can remain irrational longer than your account can remain solvent.

Thank you all for your contributions, it's good to know that I'm not the only one watching this pair.