There is just one thing that can change my general bullish remarks on stocks and oil and bearish comment on the dollar: The Fed.

Let us go back to when the financial crisis was still relatively young-the summer of 2007. By then, we'd seen many mortgage lenders collapse and the writing has been on the wall to the largest bust in U.S. history, Lehman Bros.. As the Fed met which August there were rumblings about a rate adorable, which occurred in September if they cut by 50 basis points.

That for certain was the sign to get the hell out of stocks. The Fed had made the extraordinary move based on what they saw as potentially dire circumstances. Lehman filed for bankruptcy in September, and Stocks appeared in October 2007. They didn't bottom until March 2009, after Bernanke went on 60 Minutes and said the Fed was electronically printing dollars.

So that it would take something extraordinary by the Fed to again get me bearish.