I understand such events create sentiment on the market but I was thinking if there are a way to ascertain the sentiment on day to day basis?Originally Posted by ;
I understand such events create sentiment on the market but I was thinking if there are a way to ascertain the sentiment on day to day basis?Originally Posted by ;
That would be a holy grail, my buddy...Originally Posted by ;
The closest and easiest thing I would recommend is that you could use HA candles or even merely the open traces of the daily candles. To ascertain the current sentiment of daily candles. The candle is above the open or if they are green, of course the sentiment of the market is up. And vice.
It is very straightforward though. Again examine the last months of the pairs I mentioned. Fundamentally these currencies ought to be going down, but they were not, day following day they kept rising. This lets you know that the sentiment of the market is contrary to the fundamental trend.
And I previously mentioned that sentiment is based on qualitative data, such as geo-political news.
Hi I support you and I am glad that finally found a fundamental forex trader which seems to be very rare in my opinion.What I want to ask you is can you recommend more literature about forex fundamentals?
Not always about Currency Market, more about fundamentals generally, but by far one of my favorites.Originally Posted by ;
could u give us a pair of setups or situations you seem when u make a trade using fundamentals?Originally Posted by ;
Chief,Originally Posted by ;
A petition from my end. Upon rereading your articles, you left a nugget of gold, asking to studying the connection between bond yield and currency prices.
While I did my study, you have a method of describing things that's sharp and ties up lots of items. Could you please include a primer bond yield, currency prices and interest rates come together?
Thanks
Some Advice on BondsOriginally Posted by ;
There are two Kinds of bonds. Corporate and Government. We care about government bonds.
When interest rates rise, the price of government bonds go down, and that means their yields go up (investors get a much better return for buying the bonds).
When interest rates fall, the price of the government bonds go up, the return goes down.
For the ones that don't know the return is the coupon sum divided by the price of the bond.
Better returns imply more investors, like big pension fund managers, and investors, in general, will want to buy these government bonds. In order to do so, they need to buy the currency of the nation in which the bonds are being issued by the government. This is demand for bonds, will boost demand for a currency.
When yields are low in 1 nation, funds will invest in different countries bonds to safeguard themselves. Again, they need to sell their currency and buy the currency to buy the bond. This lessens the need of the country's currency as individuals sell and boost the need of the country's currency as individuals convert their cash to buy bonds.
These trades don't occur in a day (the selling/purchasing of the new currency and the purchasing of their new bond). These individuals(all of the different big fund managers around the world) are handling billions and billions of dollars, so that they can not just make the trade in 1 order. Sometimes it takes weeks or even months to allow them to fully convert their cash so that they can buy the bonds that they desire. They do not want to just flooding the market with orders since they want to attempt to find the very best price when they convert their cash, and if all the funds around the world did it once, flooding the market would get the price to wreck along with also the price goes too low, the charge to get into the bond might become bigger than the yield they were planning on becoming in this first loion.
This reality of the market is among the ways the smaller fish have an advantage over the bigger fish. If you know these funds will be moving into a single currency, you can get in the exchange in a single second as you're handling a small sum of money (even if you're trading with millions). Whereas these funds can not, they need to get into the position.
This generates two major waves within a market move. The 1st wave is caused by speculators trying to get into before/while the funds begin to get in, because the funds require their cash to be converted by weeks/months and also the wave is a more longer and constant push. The second wave is almost always bigger than the first.
Awesome! Thank you for obliging my request. Lucky to have you as my mentor...Originally Posted by ;
I've read about this earlier, but I certainly feel like I'm learning it for the first time. Thanks for your English explanation.Originally Posted by ;