Statistical Analysis of TZs
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Thread: Statistical Analysis of TZs

  1. #1
    This thread includes the results of a research I've been doing with TZs (Transient Zones). What exactly are TZs? They're zones of prices within a pub which aren't touched to right and the left of the TZ pub within a particular number of bars. They could be called pivots spikes, supply/demand areas, resistance/support areas, breakouts, etc. However, for the purposes of this thread let us call them TZs.

    I will assume that you already have an understanding of TZs and their nomenclature (h, k, transience, recurrence, etc.). I suggest reading the start of this thread, which has been created by if you do.

    The purpose of this thread is to demonstrate the effectiveness, or ineffectiveness, of TZ systems from the most unequivocal manner possible, using the statistical analysis of previous data. Thus all probabilities are not theoretical. I encourage other folks to post their results in a manner that is similar. And that I discourage people from posting remarks about TZs with no figures to back up them. Personally Im not biased towards TZ systems way. Im only interested in the advantage they might provide. And when a system provides no edge, I will be using it.

    At the moment, I am still undecided about whether to post any of my progr that create these figures. There are many reasons for and against this. Currently I am more in the against camp. It could be argued that posting results without the code is meaningless and untrustworthy, but I guess that if anyone feels about the results and the systems then they ought to write their own progr or analyse their own charts to establish or disprove them. That is exactly what I'd do instead of relying on someone .
    Edit 04-May-2015: I've posted the key indior TZJ3 (with viewable source code) to the ribbon within this post.

    Unfortunately, like many of us here, my online time is quite limited so please bear in mind. If something comes up there may be lengthy gaps between articles. If you have any queries or comments kindly be grateful if you could ask them than in PMs. Thanks.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Hello NT, first, great and invaluable work. What I understand from first proposition, TZ concept should work with same odds on all TF (M1 or H4). Your comment?
    Thank you rrrem. We originally found that H4 (M240) was the best time for the very first Opposite system, and after tests I conducted seemed to confirm that. I haven't submitted the most recent results for other timeframes but will do.

    It may be conincidence which M240 yields the best outcome, or it may be since the parameters (h worth and so on) were optimized for that interval. You would have thought that all timeframes would yield results over large data samples, because of the nature of the market.

    I'll post more about this afterwards.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote I use h that is the smallest one to get 3%. This may be our own choice or predicated on Jay's transaction examples. quote
    Hello NT, sorry for posting this notion under. It has no connection to statistical analysis (yet), but it's connection to TZ (need some opportunity to create statistic on this). I like scalping attempting to trade on TF M15 with TZ. One of my h is 8. It is in testing phase, so any thought is welcome. Picture can be found here: https://www.forexforum.co.za/general...appointed.html

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote From the RecurrenceStatistic code there is not any mention of the opposite TZs. The first code I wrote dealt with TZs while there may have been people adding other stuff to it. Cheers, Rs edit: the mql code is here: file
    Thanks kprsa

    I knew if I threw out something there from one of what I like to call the Originals( the Founders if you are a Trekkie) one of you'd show up and clear up what I had been missing.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Yes, each of the indiors I post are for NinjaTrader, sorry.
    Thanks, your ideas and theories continue to be very much valued.

  6. #6
    Hi NT,
    Last week have output window in the time I test your code, but now there's no window. May I know what the issue is, and also how to resolve it?
    Thanks in advance.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hi NT, Last week I have output window at the time I test your code, but today there's absolutely no window. May I know what the issue is, and how to resolve it? Thanks in advance.
    Not sure pedma, but maybe it was shut by error? If you choose Tools gt; Rename Window... in the Control Center menu then it must return.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Not sure, but perhaps it had been closed by mistake? If you choose Tools gt; Output Window... from the Control Center menu then it must return.
    Thanks a lot NT. Yes, I remember now I've shut it. It's ok now... thank you.

  9. #9
    Hi NorthTrader,

    This is my first post here, but I have been following this thread from the start.

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote But should you input and place stops dynamically, at different levels every time, then you will win (according to the analysis). And should you employ even more discretion - adjusting entries, stops and targets according to the current market environment, or skipping trades if something appears - then you will win more.
    I am afraid I can't understand your egy completely (because of my poor english skill), but I agree to the above statement.
    I also have experienced that the energetic entryexit can create profitable backtest.


    But then,

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote But if you understand how to trade in the first place, then why bother trading TZs and not some other system?
    I thought about that and currently I am not working on TZ egy.
    However, I expect your analysis will go well and look forward to hearing good news from you.

    Thank you,

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    But I expect your analysis will go well and look forward to hearing good news from you. Thank you,
    Hey Jim,

    O-hisashi buri. You've been very quiet! Thanks for your kind words.

    By the way, the machine is very simple. You merely trade towards the very first opposite PTZ (the Target TZ) that looks after a PTZ/CTZ (the Base TZ), within a range of h values (30 to 120 works best). So the Base TZ can be the same foundation for Target TZs as the h values don't exceed 120. Once they exceed 120, you change sides and wait to appear.

    This probably is not the perfect method to exchange TZs, but it's very simple. And with the parameters I included it is profitable over a backtest period and lots of currency pairsafter trading costs.

    I am currently forward-testing it, with disrection, as well as thinking about new ideas. So I am somewhat quiet on this thread right now.

    Bye for now,
    NT

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