Are the best systems also the systems that fail most spectacularly?
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Thread: Are the best systems also the systems that fail most spectacularly?

  1. #1
    Like to throw this question out there to experienced Forex traders.

    The main reason is because I am working in my own automated forex trading sytem composed in C , Ive tested it on 2009 so far and it produced 10000 pips, analyzing it on 2008 at the present time and so much its at about 11,000 pips. This is with no filtering of any kind.

    My system includes lots of losing trades too, and the progress is very slow and it hovers around specific accounts. When I read about these bots which promise to have no trades because whenever, I have always been skeptical. Do these types of perfect systems generally fail than a system which creates losses but generally more wins.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Well Stated, MACDoug....
    FX-Petra,

    Nicely stated and well thought out answer. I agree with nearly everything except It is a flaw that is sad you stated. I believe it isn't a flaw at all, but a gift. Many folks don't see mistakes as an chance to look for another means.

    Personally, I don't think blackboxes would be the way to go, but if someone keeps working at it and finds out a system that works, then more power to them.

    joey

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    complete b.s, I challenge you to give evidence of a single case of this occurring
    Rentec?

    Edit: (Please be aware that I meant Medallion, not the general public capital )

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aq33M3X795vQ

  4. #4
    Interesting article. I see you're making headway in your own blackbox of types. Well done in your progress up to now!

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I don't think you are taking a brief cut, I believe you are searching for something to take the toughest part of trading out of the equation - you. Congrats in your algo. Stop demoing if you are getting results and begin trading. Simple as that.

    So far as ching you, I'm already profitable. And trading reside. So it's another way around.

    Good fortune,

    Chris
    When I said I was talking about another people working balck-box systems. Peers or my competitors if you will.

  6. #6
    Men Im sitting here and that I have my system running at home on 12 currency pairs (since last night) and it hasn't made a single trade up to now. This is normal since it sometimes goes for days without placing any transactions then puts lots in a short period.

    Its fruing too. I can't get it to work with the backtester and my target is to do this over the weekend so that I can confirm my results and for the interest of my sanity see that I didn't miscalculate the success of this machine.

    I figure you can know how I feel since the machine is producting 2000 pips a month in history on pretty much any calendar year, any currency pair, any spread, with absolutely no tweaking. Seems to good to be true to me aswell...

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    complete b.s, I challenge you to give evidence of a single case of this occurring
    Normally I won't respond to this idiotic article, but I despise it when folks post bullshit. Try Googling 'D. E. Shaw', 'Ed. Thorp' or'Automated Trading' (first hit), have I provided enough examples for you to pull your head from your ass yet?

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Usually I won't respond to this idiotic article, but I despise it when people post bullshit. Try Googling 'D. E. Shaw', 'Ed. Thorp' or'Automated Trading' (first hit), have you ever provided enough examples that you pull your head from your ass yet?
    One could also just watch a CME future to get a couple of minutes, realize that most of the actions on L2 is carried out by (rather sophistied) automated market manufacturing engines then wonder why somebody would be running these systems...

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Leon,

    The past has demoned that'extreme cash generating versions' such as the only according to the Black Scholes option formula used by Long Term Capital Management and the newer CDO based versions also rely on intense leverage and market vulnerability.

    Nowthese'systems' have as a basis a very sophistied structure that in the ideal environment generate out of proportion (large ) yields in a symbiotic manner, i.e many people profit at once from becoming involved from the ladder of transactions (from the CDO market, the mortgage industry as well as...
    Hi Max

    Sorry I took so long to react, I forgot I had left this post.

    However, is this not the same thing as only taking longs within an uptrend? When the uptrend ended then did the profits. LTCM etc were basically just using a curve fit.

    I will need to read up on what occurred, I'd have thought that there would be sign's for them to prevent what they were doing before things turned bad.

    Leon

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Much like to throw this question out there to more experienced Forex traders.

    The reason is because I am working on my own automated forex trading sytem written in C , Ive tested it on 2009 up to now and it generated 10000 pips, analyzing it on 2008 in the moment and so much its about 11,000 pips. This is with no filtering of any sort.

    My system includes lots of losing trades too, and the progress is quite slow and it hovers around certain accounts. I've always been skeptical when I read about these bots that claim to have no losing...
    No

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