daily analysis, mid-and long-term outlook
Page 1 of 842 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 14

Thread: daily analysis, mid-and long-term outlook

  1. #1
    24/01/2008

    EURUSD

    EurUsd is trading at the exact same level it was when we wrote our previous daily commentary, the pair went reduced in yesterday afternoon trading hours but then retraced up above 1.4600 after finding support at the 1.4500 level. The markets are still undecided following the events we've witnessed this week and seemingly many are still expecting the FED to lower interest rates , and until this situation has some clarifiion trading will be difficult, the battle between bulls and bears will continue to keep the pair trading close to the current levels.
    Resistance Levels1.5000-- around number 1.4966- Nov 23rd large 1.4735 -Nov 9th High Support Levels1.4500- around number 1.4300 - Sept 30th High 1.4000 - Round amount 1.3850 - July 24th High

  2. #2
    1 Attachment(s) GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 210.51; (P) 212.27; (R1) 213.40; http://www.actionforex.com/technical...-200603205734/
    GBP/JPY's rally from 204.49 was restricted at 214.00 and retreats from there continues today. With 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line, an intraday top is set up and prognosis is turned neutral for now. On the upside, above 214.00 will indie rebound from 204.49 is still in progress for internal falling channel resistance (now at 218.96). On the downside, however, below 207.05 minor support will indie that rise from 204.49 has completed and will bring retest of the low.
    In the larger picture, an important medium term top is formed at 251.09 following completion of a moderate term head and should top pattern (ls: 241.47, h: 251.09, rs: 241.35), together with the medium term trend line support carried out too. In other words, the whole up trend from 148.19 ought to have ended at 251.09 already. That being said, provided that the current rebound is restricted below 221.25 support turned resistance, the collapse from 241.35 should still be in force.
    But a short-term bottom is set up after GBP/JPY was supported by dual channel support, on bullish convergence state in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Firm break of 204.49 is needed to confirm recent down trend has declared for plogical support at 200, which overlaps with next medium term fibo support of 50 percent retracement of 148.19 (006) to 251.09 (07 large ) at 199.64. Otherwise consolidation could be viewed with risk of another rise before completion.

  3. #3
    EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.77; (P) 157.44; (R1) 158.35;
    EUR/JPY's rally 152.11 was restricted at 159.12 so much and retreat from there continues now. An intraday shirt is set up there with 4 hours MACD hauled below signal line. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 159.12 will indie rise from 152.11 is still in force and also for 162.27 resistance and over. However, below 154.83 will argue that rebound out of 152.11 has completed in corrective three waves way to 159.12 and will encourage retest of the low first.
    In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY has become sideway consolidation following medium term up trend was restricted at 168.93. It's still early to conclude whether this consolidation has completed. On the one hand, sustained break of 168.93 high is needed to confirm that the medium term up trend has resumed. Otherwise, another autumn could nevertheless be seen before finishing the consolidation. On the other hand, below 152.11 will suggest that autumn from 167.72 is still in progress to retest 149.27 reduced prior completion.

  4. #4
    EUR/USD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4636; (P) 1.4707; (R1) 1.4752;
    EUR/USD's retreat from 1.4778 extends further now and is now pressing 4 hours 55 EMA (1.4660). With 4 hours MACD hauled below signal line, outlook is turned neutral for now. On the upside, above 1.4778 will indie that rise from 1.4365 remains in progress to 1.4921 resistance. Meanwhile, on the downside, below 1.4589 will imply that rally out of 1.4365 has completed. Further decrease should be seen to 1.4508 and break will affirm this situation and bring retest of 1.4365 low.
    In the larger picture, a medium term top is set up after EUR/USD failed 1.5 plogical resistance. After price actions from 1.4966 is so far still bounded inside based range of 1.4309 and 1.4966, suggesting it's only developing into sideway consolidation rather than a profound correction. Having said this, it's too early to conclude if the consolidation has completed or not till a firm fracture of 1.4966/1.5 key resistance zone. And further afield sideway trading may still be seen. On the downside, break of 1.4365, though, will indie a deeper autumn is in advance for 1.4014 support before finishing the consolidation.
    Additionally, with 1.3581 resistance turned support remains undamaged, medium term up trend from 1.1639 remains in force. Regardless of internal structure, it is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.3668 (04 high) and has just neglected 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 in 1.5004 goal which overlaps with 1.5 plogical resistance. Sustained trading above 1.5 key resistance will affirm the medium term up trend has declared to next projection goal of 100 percent projection in 1.7048.

  5. #5
    USD/CAD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9998; (P) 1.0058; (R1) 1.0093;
    USD/CAD weakens mildly further today but after all it is still remaining in range over 1.0015. While consolidation from 1.0015 might last, further decrease is still anticipated as long as 1.0135 resistance holds. Notice the spontaneous nature of the fall from 1.0378 and bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Rise from 0.9056 might have already finished at 1.0378 after fulfilling 1.0339 support turned resistance. Split of 0.9971 will add more credence to this particular case and bring retest of 0.9756 reduced first.
    But above 1.0135 will indie indie that fall from 1.0378 has maybe completed and bring stronger rebound to 1.0204 resistance first. Split of 1.0204 resistance will firstly indie that fall from 1.0378 has likely finished. Second it will assert that increase from 0.9756 is still in drive for 61.8% projection of 0.9056 to 1.0248 from 0.9756 at 1.0493.
    In the bigger picture, a moderate term bottom is set up at 0.9056 after USD/CAD just missed double projection target of 161.8% projection of 1.4006 to 1.1716 from 1.2737 at 0.9032 and 161.8% projection of 1.2737 into 1.0930 from 1.1874 at 0.8950. However, with key medium term resistance zone of 1.0930, 38.2% retracement of 1.4006 into 0.9056 at 1.0947 and 50 percent retracement of 1.2737 into 0.9056 at 1.0897 stays intact, the long term down trend in 1.6196 is still in force. Break of 0.9756 will confirm that rally from 0.9056 has finished and will bring retest of the non. However, sustained break of 1.0930 will assert that the long term down trend has also finished and in such circumstance, much broader rally should then be seen to next medium term resistance of 1.1874 first.

  6. #6
    AUD/USD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8806; (P) 0.8849; (R1) 0.8931;
    AUD/USD's rally out of 0.8512 declared after taking out 0.8853 resistance and reached as high as 0.8895 so far. At this point, further rally is still anticipated as long as 0.8768 service holds. Next upside goal will be short term falling trend line (currently at 0.8935) and then 0.9018 resistance. On the downside, below 0.8768 will indie that rise in 0.8512 has made a top and twist perspective neutral again. Though, further rise is still in favor as long as 0.8611 service holds.
    In the larger picture, rally in 0.7015 has made a moderate term high at 0.9398 after neglecting 200% projection of 0.6773 to 0.7992 out of 0.7015 in 0.9453, using bearish divergence state in 4 hours RSI. Subsequent fall from 0.9398 is treated as correction to rise from 0.7015 only. Break of 0.9018 resistance will indie that such corrective fall has finished and will promote more powerful rally to retest 0.9398 high.
    However, break of 0.8611 will indie that such correction is still in progress for one more fall to below 0.8512, likely to support gap between 0.8008 (04 large ) and 50 percent retracement of 0.7015 to 0.9398 in 0.8207 before conclusion. Though, downside ought to be contained there and bring rally resumption.

  7. #7
    EUR/USD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4695; (P) 1.4747; (R1) 1.4831;
    EUR/USD retreats marginally after rally in 1.4365 has expanded to as large as 1.4798. Now, outlook remains unchanged. Rise from 1.4365 is still in progress for 1.4921 resistance, together with possibility of retesting 1.4966 record high and 1.5 plogical resistance. On the downside, however, below 1.4658 will turn short-term outlook neutral again and bring pull back. But further rally is still in favor provided that drawback is contained above 1.4508 support.
    In the bigger picture, a medium term top is in place after EUR/USD failed 1.5 plogical resistance. After price actions from 1.4966 is so far still bounded inside established range of 1.4309 and 1.4966, suggesting it is merely developing into sideway consolidation as opposed to a deep correction. Having said that, it is too premature to conclude if the consolidation has finished or not until a company break of 1.4966/1.5 key resistance zone. And further sideway trading could nevertheless be viewed. On the downside, break of 1.4365, however, will indie that a deeper autumn is in advance for 1.4014 support before finishing the consolidation.
    Additionally, with 1.3581 resistance turned support remains undamaged, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in force. Regardless of internal structure, it is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.3668 (04 large ) and has just failed 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 in 1.5004 target which contrasts with 1.5 plogical resistance. Sustained trading above 1.5 key resistance will confirm the medium term up trend has declared to next projection target of 100% projection in 1.7048.

  8. #8
    GBP/USD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9749; (P) 1.9819; (R1) 1.9912;
    Cable turns sideway after expanding greater to 1.9889 and is still pressing mentioned short term decreasing channel resistance (now at 1.9845). But further rally is still in favor as long as 1.9730 service holds. As mentioned before, break of the mentioned station resistance will indie that whole collapse from 2.1161 has completed in 1.9337 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Stronger rally should the be seen to 2.0099 resistance .
    But below 1.9730 will probably have 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line too and suggest that rebound from 1.9337 has finished with three waves up to 1.9876. To put it differently, it's merely a correction to the down trend from 2.1161 only. Below 1.9464 will indie such downward tendency is prepared to resume for a retest of 1.9337 low first.
    In the larger picture, prior break of moderate term rising station and 2.0 plogical service at indie that rise in 1.8090 has already completed at 2.1161. With 55 months EMA taken out too, it's likely the medium term up trend from 1.7047 has also finished. Deeper medium term decline is expected towards 61.8% retracement in 1.8619. Though, break of the short term falling station will indie that whole drop from 2.1161 has finished. Stronger short term rally must then be seen, likely to retest prior moderate term channel support turned resistance (now at 2.0250) prior to restarting the medium word fall from 2.1161.

  9. #9
    USD/CHF Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0854; (P) 1.0909; (R1) 1.0947;
    USD/CHF is still lacking a definite short term direction and recovers today. Nevertheless, with 1.0990 resistance remains undamaged, further downside is still in prefer to retest 1.0846 and 1.0836 lows. Break will confirm fall from 1.1120 and whole decline from 1.1596 has declared for next downside target of 61.8% projection of 1.1596 to 1.0836 out of 1.1120 in 1.0650. But, above 1.0990 will suggest that consolidation pattern that began at 1.0836 is still in progress. In other words, further rise should nevertheless be seen to 1.1120 prior completion.
    In the bigger picture, complete downward trend from 1.3283 (05 large ) is still in force. The preferred interpretation is that fall from 1.3282 was initially contained in 1.1919 and turned to sideway triangle consolidation that completed at 1.2467, in which the medium term down trend by 1.3283 resumed. Having said this, next medium term downside target will be 161.8% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 out of 1.2467 in 1.0260. Additionally, such moderate term decrease is treated as resumption of the long term down trend from 1.8305 (00 large ) that could extend further to parity.
    On the upside, however, above 1.1189 resistance will firstly argue that fall out of 1.1596 has completed. Second, it will suggest that consolidation from 1.0890 is still in progress and further rise could be seen to retest 1.1596 high prior completion. But still, sustained break of 1.1596 is needed to indie such downward tendency from 1.3283 has completed. Long term outlook will remain bearish

  10. #10
    USD/JPY Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.24; (P) 106.63; (R1) 107.28;
    USD/JPY continues to unite in tight range over 105.92 support today. Outlook stays neutral for now. On the 1 hand, with 4 hours MACD remaining below sign line, it is very likely that rebound from 104.96 has completed in 107.89, leaving it with a corrective three wave structure. Split of 105.92 will confirm this case and deliver retest of 104.96 low. Though, company break there is needed to confirm recent fall from 114.77 has resumed for second medium term target of 101.22/65 level. On the other hand, powerful rebound above 104.96, or a break of 107.89 resistance, will indie that correction from 104.96 is still in progress towards 110.10 resistance.
    In the bigger picture, fall from 114.77 should still be in advance as long as 110.10 resistance holds. Though, below 104.96 is needed to confirm it has resumed. Otherwise, a little more consolidation could be observed in short term. Also, entire medium term down trend from 124.13 stays in force towards key medium term support zone of 101.22/65 level. But since the structure of the fall from 124.13 isn't clearly impulsive still, the fall from 124.13 may only be a part of a wide range consolidation pattern only and 101.22/65 key support may hold. As this support zone is approached by USD/JPY, attention will be paid there on sign of change.
    On the upside, over 110.10 will indie that fall from 114.77 has already completed. Stronger rally could be viewed reevaluate the trend line resistance (currently at 113.41). But a critical break of trend line resistance is necessary to be the first sign that whole down trend fro 124.13 has finished. Medium term prognosis will remain bearish.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
This website uses cookies
We use cookies to store session information to facilitate remembering your login information, to allow you to save website preferences, to personalise content and ads, to provide social media features and to analyse our traffic. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners.