The odds, according to interest-rates swaps are 50/50 tonight on a rate hike. Greater than I had anticipated given the CPI figs yesterday, though y/y inflation is higher than 3 percent. I believe that they will hold rates, however, the statement will be intriguing, to see if any evidence emerges that inflation risks remain, pointing to a hike.
NZD/USD rose about 100pips last month with in an houron the basis of the hawkish statement.
Any thoughts?