South Africa - rock RAND roll
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Thread: South Africa - rock RAND roll

  1. #1
    Well, if you couldn't guess it from the childish title, this thread will be utilized to post regarding the South African Rand. At least me when I feel like it. There are numerous prestigious members of this forum out of South Africa, so any input from you people would probably be quite a little more valuable than my semi-researched blabberings. Lets begin?

    The reason why I even bothered to observe this currency was because of the interest rate. Their rates are at high levels compared with many of the currencies out there, hence making their carry allure clear. Recent history has shown the Rand hit near 18 month highs against the USD and has now fallen sharply to very close 4?1/2 year lows against the USD. This will be achieved if it crosses above R8.0000 per $1.00. This rate change has become intereting to follow along, because the whole world is quite damaging USD, however the Dollar is setting a suprising fight from the first quarter of 2008, especially against some more exotic currencies. This obviously includes the Rand. Why the sharp collapse?

    Well, the best I could figure it, at least based upon a few readings, is that South Africa is undergoing 1) Power pitches, which is endangering their whole mining efforts the nation heavily depends upon. 2) The government in South Africa is currently allowing their banks, investment firms and other companies to http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Qgrefer=africa at a greater level.

    **

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    1)They aren't surges, they're complete shutdowns/blackouts. Some lasting between 2-4 hours. And I mean everything, companies, hospitals, traffic-lights, MINES, you name it, it goes down. Scheduled, although, I'm yet to see SA adhere to a program on anything.
    2)They have always invested abroad, whether on the record or away
    .
    ** Thanks for the inputsignal, this is the knowledge simple posts never tell. I appreciate it.

    Clearly there will be other reasons, I have read about some political problems, though from the readings, these seem to be the big two. The next reason appears to be the more glaring of the 2 issues. Although, if the lights can't be turned back on, that may turn out to be a bigger issue than I feel it is.

    Just for note, although the Rand has moved from a high of about 14.0000 to near 8.0000 currently in just six decades of time, my bias remains the Rand will gain. I don't feel that gain has been fixed, just merely a change of environment is shaking up things. Although my bias to begin would be brief USD/ZAR, impending on continuing trends, there may be cause for a long XXX/ZAR position. I posted a weekly chart from MT4 revealing the past ten decades.

    We all are welcome to find out about the nation or the ZAR currency specifically. Since I trade on bigger timeframes, learning about the nation of South Africa may help to pass the time. Have a fantastic afternoon,

  2. #2
    Just a note, I've noticed that the local news is either deliberatly delaying news that will help the sensationalism or else they have a serious lag in data, I am placing my money. Trevor Manuals resignation was reportedly taken back following ANC asked him to stay on longer. SABC and etv showed the component of him resigning after which 10mins later said that he was prepared to assist when at the mean time, 3 hours prior to the E-news and SABC, Manual had pulled his resignation. When there is any news to currently trust, I would say just observe Reuters newsfeed on South Africa, then there is some screwing about from the news.

    I'm convinced he will formally resign though once Zuma comes in since it's natural for those positions to be renewed with new faces (not that there are numerous about ).

    Yeah loading up on longs here. I saw an interview of Nedbank Capital talking about how amazed they were on the drop from the Rand etc hahaha god I laughed my head off, am I glad I don't bank with Nedbank anymore, they'd have better luck with a group of monkeys trading there.

    But yeah, only that heads up with the local news, don't trust what they saying, particularly time wise. 3 hours out?! Something fishy there.

  3. #3
    Https://gm.bankofny.com/Research/FXC...ManagerID=7672

    A nice comment piece on South Africa with some graphs. How long they'll be viewable for go on over asap.

  4. #4
    Quick one, almost forgot.

    Out of 400 votes, 261 ( /-) were for the new SA president (I can not pronounce let alone spell that, so google it). News reports it as an overwhelming majority vote... where'd these men learn mathematics? It's just over 50 percent, but that is not a majority, on top of that some ministers there to vote and they'd, I think it was, 40 no-votes for individuals who were there. Far from a majority as reported by local news. He's just shuffled around cabinet and promoted a lot of ministers to ranks which have been dreadful in service delivery and should be fired than promoted.

    Have a Wonderful week.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Quick one, almost forgot.

    Out of 400 votes, 261 ( /-) were for the new SA president (I can't pronounce let alone spell that, so google it). News reports it as an overwhelming majority vote... where would these men learn mathematics? It is just over 50 percent, but that's not a majority, on top of that some ministers there to vote and they had, I think it had been, 40. Far from a majority as reported by local news. He has only shuffled around cabinet and encouraged a lot of ministers to ranks which have been terrible in service delivery and should be terminated than encouraged.

    Have a great week.
    welcome to my world.

    That you have a good one also

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Quick one, nearly forgot.

    Out of 400 votes, 261 ( /-) were for the new SA president (I can't pronounce let alone spell it, so google it). News reports it as an overwhelming majority vote... where'd these guys learn mathematics? It is just over 50%, that is not a majority, on top of that some ministers and they had, I think that it was, 40. Far from a majority as reported by local news. He has also only shuffled around cupboard and encouraged a lot of ministers to high positions which have been terrible in service delivery and should be fired than encouraged.

    Have a Fantastic week.
    Ummm, 261 is 65%. That critical and yes that's a majority. We will elect a president here in the US with less than 65%, way less and it won't be close.

  7. #7
    As you're looking gloomier and gloomier by the afternoon, if 10 is not taken out soon we could see 12 soon.

    The impending recession that South Africa will face (is here as two quaters of neg expansion = recession) wasn't blown away by the acting presidents (ZUMA'S stand in) firm denial that, South Africa would not enter a recession, because he said so.

    The latest news that government spending (ideally with borrowed funds) will fill the openings in the sectors which are hemorrhaging at the present time could also prove to be pie in the sky, as developing nations take a rear seat with their begging bowls until the real savings that feed them get back on their feet. (Not soon if you see the news)

    With the market going belly up, politics turning sour together with corruption and very left leaning policy changes being implemented, an increasing number of victims of beee and crime will depart. (you know the ones who said they'd never depart however are sold up and packed, just waiting for their adopted nation to let them in. 5 year waiting periods for Canada and nobody wants to Reside in Canada anyway. )

    Bottom picking or ching falling knives is not my style so I'll just keep plugging away in the very long term one way transaction.

    The swap earned is not worth the risk taken. Regarding the carry trade, where it is?

  8. #8
    Yeah, quite amusing regarding the whole Canada thing, heard a lot about that haha

    A few Rand strength lately, could head to 7.10's again, a few hints about the daily. Though... looking at some moving averages, 9.11 is in there too so which may provide some support.

    I visit RMB has changed their website, there's some new place called the FICC that handles their distribution of research notes... it is not updated regularly though... shame as it was on time regular on the preceding website.

    Any interest in a ZAR specific site? If there cheers I would consider.

    As for the 261 votes, 30 or so were not there to vote, so that would have leveled it much more. This whole COPE party that has been born now is a small laugh, yes allows vote for a party that just divide up from the ruling party...? They would all be voting to precisely the same people that they were just frued about... but now under a new democratic name.... Africa, gotta love it. To me it smells of a holding company structure... company ABC owns B in addition to the contest C but they seem different in order motivate change, especially when Mbheki is seemingly connected to its startup hahaha classic.

    Return into the economics, together with rates falling everywhere and speak of SA's inflation falling too, it'll be interesting where the Rand goes in the near term. Being a rate may be attractive but it's nearing elections and people happen to be harrassed and attacked near voting places. There has been a lot of police reports being slipped beneath the desk. And of course as Mgabe resists to go down without a fight tension increasing.

    Anyhow, enjoy the weekend all.

  9. #9
    Hi guys, just launched therandreport.com which focuses on the USD/ZAR pair giving hourly, daily and weekly analysis.

    Feel free to pop around and give it a read.

    Enjoy a Fantastic weekend.
    Brad

  10. #10
    Published our future projections on the economy and the Rand of South Africa leading to the elections today, enjoy.

    http://www.therandreport.com/?p=119

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