CookieMonstas Journey Into the Forex World
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Thread: CookieMonstas Journey Into the Forex World

  1. #1
    This is my diary of research and my adventures into trading egies in the forex world.

    I am simply keeping this diary so that I can look at it after I ran the trade and bounce my ideas of how to enhance my own trading egy.

    If anybody is interested in discussing egies here, all are welcomed, if you have some new ideas that you need to bounce of someone, you're also welcomed to do so here.

    I'll only post trades if I feel like it, and only if I have time.

    That I have started trading about 2-3 years ago, and during this time that I have chanced upon the thread Technical Analysis Fallacy, here in Forexforum.co.za.
    It's a wonderful thread, where some of the top traders in the world hang out.

    Everything you'll never get here, is rigid, start looking for some indior setup and trade it sort of thing. As the markets are constantly flowing, the conditions change to be able to adapt to the fluctuations in the market, an individual must understanding market structure, and understand player profiling.

    Quoting from the AoW, know thyself and know thy enemy, and a hundred battles, an individual need not dread.

    I don't assert that I trade like in the TAF thread, what happens, I've learnt some really useful things, mainly how to read price action, money management, and love of the 3 kingdom, also known as, the connection of the forex currency pairs. And in addition to that, I added in my own touch.
    So my methodology is my own, forged by my own experience, and from knowledge from various sources, especially from the TAF thread, but maybe not only from there.

    You may see elements of how I trade to include stuff from the TAF thread, but I don't follow it completely, I think there's more, and that I feel the thread is only a small fraction of FTI's true capacities. My gut sense, but I feel there are alot more that he didn't reveal perhaps its because its not usable in retail trading, applicable only to individuals money.

    You may also not receive any type of fundamental analysis, as I just cannot understand fundamentals very well, and won't use that sort of analysis.

    Technical Analysis is only, the analysis of price, time and volume, as place forex doesn't have quantity, and I am not sure about futures I don't have a live feed too, so I don't use quantity and I don't use futures. But it's an ANALYSIS and STUDY of price and time, there's absolutely no rigidity in it, what people have as an idea of Technical Analysis really is nothing but hogwash, since they enforced their own assumptions of what exactly Technical Analysis ought to be instead of what it actually is. If you disturb contrasting people like wyckoff and wd gann and jesse livermore, how they traded, that is true technical ANALYSIS they used their wisdom and knowledge to create profits. People in the TAF thread is currently doing it assessing price action, then with the right MO, manage and handle the trade appropriately, according to the terms the market attest then and there. Then contrast it with the black box rigid method expert indior kind of trading where it's stochastics more than 80 percent, market, that is not analysis, since the model is so restricted, and prohibitive, to local price action and doesn't factor the grand scheme of things and the general conditions of the market, RIGHT NOW, the key would be RIGHT NOW. People who love to say that this system is 70% accurate and blah blah blah, will learn it the hard way when the kick, it only indies that did not wish to utilize their brains and their own discretion. Profitable traders deal with the RIGHT NOW, and manage it. There is alot of misconception about but what I CAN tell you about ANALYSIS, is you need to use your brain and believe alot.

    As jesse livermore pointed out, trading isn't for the idle, and people who refuse to use their brains or are too idle, will only lose their money.

    The resources I use to trade, price action, ro3k and money management, I will not elaborate, if you do want to know more, take a look at the TAF thread.

    Specific egies, which can be used in conjunction to price action and ro3k, is your ro3k spreading. Which is a method to spread out positions and rotate currency pairs in the portfolio for example exposure is different in accore to how the market is moving .

    I basically follow the trend, but if it ranges, I'll trade ranges, and if it's sudden counter impulse changes, I may spread it out or find ways to manage it, in my risk tolerance limitations.

    Also, whatever I say here is but my view/opinion of how the market works and how I manage it scenarios.

    I trade intra-day, using the 5mins charts mainly and zoom out of there all the way from 5mins to daily, for analysis, sometimes I look at the 1mins charts if things feel funny.

    Really, the reality is, to trade exceptionally well, it doesn't only require you to be hardworking in the average way. It requires extreme dediion and to be on the ball all the time.

  2. #2
    Hmm, I think I mismanaged my presentation collar place, if I'd held the reaverage buy and held the long from last week's spike down, would have been deep in the money by now. Sigh.

    Position leg is all about in the cash 1x, cease at 1.1920 for hedging, as short call strike is 1.1920 and places purchased is at 1.1820, and the egy to handle it once it comes fairly from the cash but you running from clock distance, will be buy put distribute to close it, profound ITM spreads have wider spreads, OTM spreads and ATM have tighter spreads. So boxing is option.

    Another thought, to improve the collar mo, I will on top of dividing it into 10 hit squads and hit them at different price levels, I will go out in time to strike them also, in order that my place could be diversified by time too so as not to concentrate risk with respect to time . This can diversify against markets rate risk that's usually not a problem for spot only places, but is a massive problem for options positions. Fti once mentioned concerning the 5 measurements of options direction, and this is one of them, rate of move, and path dependence, so I figure this is 1 way to mitigate such risk.

    So 1 thinking process is that, to aid with the path dependence problem, we could average out the position at time and price.

  3. #3
    Not very confident abt now's commerce, tp now.

    Argh dam it, could have held on.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    so basically if you want to ants work your returns, so as not to overexpose book, which is to keep r little, you can rather work with I, that's the compound variable, and should you spec it to the bellcurve's probability, you may make high probability, limited risk, high occurence egies, except you give up the windfall profits. However, in exchange for windfall profits, you receive consistency. picture
    Hello CookieMonsta,

    I feel that your MO is becoming more robust since it's grounded on 's fundamentals. If no Tsunami vulnerability, neither there is a high risk nor a lucky lottery.
    I mean, within my MO, after found an attack or counterattack, an extraordinary windfall still might happen / be approved (as in lottery, I wouldn't dare to count the probability, something like 1: 100 000). But, it has never occurred to me personally
    (It is excellent to trigger 10x scouts size attack and find some 200 pips profit in a minute or so). I assume your former MO could likewise be available for such fortune, not the acting one.
    Imagining, what is a big fortune make with an anthill (like a pig size pray fallen), perhaps just to destroy it both physically and mindset shrewd. That's a point for reflection.

    Best regards,

  5. #5
    Meta correlation analysis.

    When two seemingly uncorrelated resources become increasingly connected.

    Is that you see the change in correlation amounts from a 0.5 to at least 0.8.

    1 instance is the flight to safety, it is very iconic throughout market crisis.

    Bonds and stocks are normally not as connected, but during particular systemic occasions, they get very correlated, which is the flight to safety.

    Suppose we apply this analysis to the 3 legged creature, we'll observe how their correlation change.

  6. #6
    This is a group of transactions done on friday.

    Fairly standard pullback transactions, directly after NFP, which might be supplying the fundamentals for friday is strong, all 7 pairs in ro3k have been in sync.
    Dollar is strengthening.

    The key to profitability, and good trading generally, isn't just having the ability to handle fantastic transactions, but its mainly when things get nasty, you have to be able to deal with those.

    There were 2 important clues that the management is strong usd, which happened around thursday, and friday morning. Is slow down, and gbpusd is strong down, also notice is downwards. What was their objective? I believe its because usdjpy needed to hunt stops, and also their move finished after the lows popped, as they're so vested given by their own trend that is hourly.

    See the majors act leading into nfp.

    Eurusd suggested distribution.
    Gbpusd was already leading the charge, its fundamentals was weakening, as given by the strong spontaneous downward movement by the gbp fundamentals news on thursday.
    Usdcad and usdchf appears upwards too, and indie accumulation.
    Usdjpy, suggested a downward movement on hourly, but potential trend shift, when they popped the low but rather had a tiny minor pullback, they appeared to indie a trend shift.






  7. #7
    in combination with the above post, see how eurgbp acts in precisely the exact same time window?

    And realize the blue window, see how its whipsawing?

    See how the major tendency of eurgbp is up, but because of how the majors are shing, eurusd and gbpusd, it is being pushed down.

    Also see how it spiked up first before pushing down strongly? It is an indiion that market makers did a spread commerce and legged into rotate inline with all the markets. See how following its top was made by the eurgbpeurusd can tank like a rock, but gbpusd is just downwards.

  8. #8
    The core basic of my current technique of trading, is basically TAF's attack and save.

    However, im not sure if I diverged on this, I do use the triangular arbitrage relationship of 3 pairs specifically.

    This triangular arbitrage relationship is not to be mistaken with ro3k, as it deals with all pairs, so it is more powerful than the triangular arbitrage relationship.

    The particular motive to use the arbitrage relationship is because traders need to quote consistently as long eurusd and short gbpusd or rather much long eurgbp, if they do not, they either have a very big customer, or they will be available to arbitrage, so normally the disperse causes the pricing to be consistent. The way I use this presumes the arbitrage relationship must maintain, by vested interest of the market makers, its a win win for me personally and for the market makers.

    In case you see yesterday's instance, you would see this in action, eurgbp went to take out the stops, what could it do? Well it's alot of buy eur and market gbp, market makers are trying to search stops to rotate position or they market it the way up and legged in their majority of their exposure to be in line with the usd fundamental momentum following NFP's news.

    If thats the case, suppose I made a error, and I am long eurusd, what could I do? Well what I could do given that the momentum, is to market gbpusd, that would make my position turn into long eurgbp, but that is a 1 1 ratio, even if rather I rotate it out, and then short more gbpusd since it had been functioning, that's the rotation and attack mo, to attack into gbpusd shorts, that would likely already resulted in a profitable general trade pl, suppose further, that I watched eurgbp dropping, and that tells me eur is dropping faster than gbp, I could farther market eurgbp 1x, to implement the lock, though there is not any difference between this and pretty much closing the entire position except paying more disperse, if you legged and save out of it correctly, you can profit from all 3 legs. This is especially useful if all 3 pairs are non trending and all 3 are currently taking turns.

    The aforementioned thinking process is my own, as I observed how the market's price action manifest, and with my understanding of market structure and player profiling, attempt to reconstruct what may be occurring, as for how much I have deviated in the TAF thread, I do not really know.

    But what we do know is, I cannot depend on others to maintain carrying my weight, so I instead do the heavy ling directly from day one. If I could learn how to come up with my own egies, will go much farther than learning to trade. I would understand how to trade out of tricky situations, and that's my goal, not simply to make money, but to be able to take care of all sorts of difficult situations, and from dealing with harder problems, you train your brain to become stronger and move strong. That's the only means to strengthen one's thinking.

    In case you've read reminiscence of a stock operator about jesse livermore, you will see how the thinking process is similar to, if jesse livermore decided he had to hit a connected market, against another manipulator who is pressing against him.

  9. #9
    This is something I have discovered while I search the world wide web, that's the issue with spreading places, its called spread. I have never seen any post written on how to handle disperse ripping, of two pairs of trades. could be stronger, it doesn't mean spreading isn't right, perhaps refinement needs to be made to it.

    Primary reason for me to want to use the triangular arbitrage connection is because two pairs does not deal with the event of disperse tearing, 3 pairs goes in 1 ring, the start is the end and the ending is the start, you can choose an arbitrary starting point, and end at another end point of YOUR choice, key here, YOUR CHOICE, means you have control, means you have survivability, means you have adaptability.

    That's the significance of circular egies to mepersonally, note, this isn't cyclic egy, and does not suggest that price action goes in cycles(this isn't accurate, but this is an assumption which many possess, price can do anything it wants), although not irrelevant, but im specifically referring to the round looping nature of the egy.

    What I meant here, is that for move A, the counter proceed against the opponent for this move is move B, then next move C, then for move C, its rear to move A. this is the round egy im talking about.

  10. #10
    The basis for pairs trading, or even statistical arbitrage is that, for some kind of motivethese two pairs are in precisely the same sector, they proceed similarly, a proportion of time.

    What they did not say, is when they tear, its because possibly the fundamental reason for tearing is very strong, and this can generate a very strong impulse movement, and when these tears occur it will be rather huge. Problem is that the pairs statistics says percent, it doesn't adjust for volatility of the tear, so you know you are able to make 90% of the time you do not know just how much you can lose.

    And just because you need to know how to handle these situations when sh*t happens, that I think traditional pairs trading method are not sufficient, you need the capability to invert the pair's leadership, or at least mitigate it, till some opening arises for one to egically rescue them, or you may just cut them when it doesn't work, but again what is the objective way to do it? I do not know, and I do not think I could reply, because the first means to egically save them seems way way more easy to tackle.

    It is because of this rationale, that I research into the triangular arbitrage relationship, as there's a counter movement for the spread tearing.

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