Why it is possible to predict price movement?
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Thread: Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  1. #1
    This sounds a query, but it is not indeed. There are a lot of trading techniques. I wonder generally what logic these methods based on in predicting price movement.

    Can anybody give me a good response?

    Thanks,

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    This sounds a simple question, but it isn't indeed. There are a lot of trading techniques claim working. But I wonder in general what logic these methods based on in predicting price movement.

    Can anyone give me a fantastic answer?

    Thanks,
    it isn't feasible to predict price movements. Then wallstreet would not have dropped throughout the burst of the housing bubble, if it had been. And they are supposed to be professionals with amounts of funds.

  3. #3
    I believe it's likely to predict price movement, but only half of the time. From the remainder it goes on your contrary direction. I posted the outcomes of trades obtained by FXCM professionals in April. It was a disaster, they lost tens of thousands of pips. In my view, speculators are moving the markets to make maximum money and this means people will lose money. If the markets weren't controlled by the couple, if they were going naturally then it would be possible to predict price movement.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I wonder generally what logic these methods based on in predicting price movement.
    Predicting price movement?

    Do you mean some kind of volatility indior or do you mean calling the direction price will go?

    When the latter (leadership) then nothing, trading is based on a (higher) probability of one thing occurring more than another, that's it, that's the best we have. As far as calling price direction nothing is a certainty and anybody who tells you otherwise is a novice or is currently currently trying to sell you something, either way avoid both!

  5. #5
    Fifty-fifty, it's called a coin toss.

    I would ask the original question with distinct punctuation -

    Why, is it possible to forecast price movement?

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I think it is likely to forecast price movement, but just half the time. In the rest it moves in your contrary direction.

  6. #6
    Occasionally it's possible to forecast price movement to the pip, but only sometimes. Even though there are traders on this community which can and do forecast price amounts, they aren't always able to perform it.

    Knowing why and when price gets predictible is an intriguing topic. A better comprehension of when a market may turn will enable a better estimation of price. Here I have demoned a swing onto the eurusd on the weekly chart, it is possible to see that the swing was timed within an 84 week foundation. I added daily trendlines, so using trendlines and easy cycles I was able to identify an area where the EURUSD might turn in price but also in time.

    So possible turns could be expected in both price and time. You won't know they will work, but employing a understanding of cycles pricing the market gets easier.


  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Occasionally it is possible to forecast price movement to the pip, but just occasionally. Although there are traders on this community that can and do forecast price amounts, they are not always able to perform it.

    Knowing why and when price gets predictible is an interesting topic. A better comprehension of when a market might turn will enable a better estimation of price. Here I've shown a reduced to low fold on the eurusd on the chart, it is possible to see that the reduced to non swing was timed within an 84 week basis. Today...
    hocus pocus, if you ask me.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    ....low to low swing onto the eurusd on the weekly chart, you can see that the low to non swing was timed within an 84 week basis. Now I included daily trendlines....

    So potential turns can be anticipated in both price and time. You will not understand they will definately work
    So they give nothing more than anything, a probability.

    Focussing and expending energy on finding tools, systems, or egies to forecast price management to the exclusion of what else is one certain way to eliminate money!

  9. #9
    What a lot of new traders don't get is the idea of probability. Nobody knows what tommorrow will bring, all you can do is deal in probability. If you're good your probability will be high that you make a winning trade. Utilizing risk control you can give yourself an edge and make money trading.

    I really like the people who say its impossible, they can scorn all they desire. I believe I will post a couple of before the simple fact trades up just to show them how its done. I do love a troll!

  10. #10
    Price motion is jarring but the randomness creates some sort of order.

    It's not possible to predict what one corporation will do, when they'll get paid and shift to home currency.

    It's not possible to forecast when and when a big or small spec will buy or sell.

    But when you get a crowd of MILLIONS of different folks doing apparently arbitrary items then you may GAUGE A TENDENCY.

    Then you add to that the current macro economic environment, and also the EXPECTATION of prospective surroundings, and again seemingly arbitrary individual transactions start to have a TENDENCY.

    That's why it is not possible to forecast, you CAN have a concept like said of the most possible direction and variance according to historical information and your analysis of the prevailing disposition in transactions but no longer.

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