Where is the risk? - Page 2
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Thread: Where is the risk?

  1. #11
    Above one stinks.

    In order continue on Next week.

  2. #12
    I have an awesome stats whom I would like to share. I hope it will encourage anyone who is learning Mispricing/Imbalance/Balance,... It prove that they will correct mispricing or rebalance their books most of time.

    Focus on JPY at JPY/GBP, M5 period.

    Some explanations:
    Inside range and External range
    Retrace = CD / CB
    Range = BC
    Prev Range = CB / AB
    Bars = 48 pubs on M5 = 4 hours


    The best way to read:
    Avg. Retrace = 1.96157249881028 = CD / CB = 190% (such as fibo retracement)
    Avg. Range = 0.332947331236634 = 439 pips in case GBP/JPY = 133.000
    Avg. Bars = 48.1428571428571 = 4 hours
    Retrace gt;= 20% : 1 = 100% price retrace to gt;= 20 percent of CB
    Retrace gt;= 50% : 1 = 100% price retrace to gt;= 50% of CB
    Retrace gt;= 80 percent : 0.785714285714286 = 78% price retrace to gt;= 80 percent of CB
    Retrace gt;= 100% : 0.714285714285714 = 71% price retrace to gt;= 100% of CB

    Inserted Code May Up Inside Range Count = 53 | Satisfied Condition = 14 Avg. Retrace = 1.96157249881028 Avg. Range = 0.332947331236634 Avg. Bars = 48.1428571428571 Retrace gt;= 20% : 1 Retrace gt;= 50% : 1 Retrace gt;= 80 percent : 0.785714285714286 Retrace gt;= 100% : 0.714285714285714 Down Inside Range Count = 53 | Satisfied Condition = 8 Avg. Retrace = 1.08500517534311 Avg. Range = 0.426390217938261 Avg. Bars = 38.625 Retrace gt;= 20% : 1 Retrace gt;= 50% : 0.875 Retrace gt;= 80% : 0.625 Retrace gt;= 100% : 0.375 Up External Range Count = 53 | Satisfied Condition = 20 Avg. Retrace = 0.866609571871577 Avg. Range = 0.6697946680291 Avg. Bars = 30.8 Avg. Prev Range = 2.08530635808035 Retrace gt;= 20% : 1 Retrace gt;= 50% : 0.7 Retrace gt;= 80% : 0.3 Retrace gt;= 100% : 0.25 Down External Range Count = 53 | Satisfied Condition = 11 Avg. Retrace = 0.470380858938564 Avg. Range = 0.901088001131285 Avg. Bars = 28.3636363636364 Avg. Prev Range = 2.77245390478832 Retrace gt;= 20 percent : 0.818181818181818 Retrace gt;= 50% : 0.272727272727273 Retrace gt;= 80 percent : 0.0909090909090909 Retrace gt;= 100% : 0.0909090909090909 July Up Inside Range Count = 142 | Satisfied Condition = 37 Avg. Retrace = 2.00828305120174 Avg. Range = 0.420631095062722 Avg. Bars = 24.1891891891892 Retrace gt;= 20% : 1 Retrace gt;= 50% : 0.891891891891892 Retrace gt;= 80 percent : 0.756756756756757 Retrace gt;= 100% : 0.702702702702703 Down Inside Range Count = 142 | Satisfied Condition = 27 Avg. Retrace = 1.26054892445697 Avg. Range = 0.478372819545663 Avg. Bars = 20.7407407407407 Retrace gt;= 20% : 1 Retrace gt;= 50% : 0.777777777777778 Retrace gt;= 80 percent : 0.666666666666667 Retrace gt;= 100% : 0.555555555555556 Up External Range Count = 142 | Satisfied Condition = 38 Avg. Retrace = 0.801773488794283 Avg. Range = 0.870322957343375 Avg. Bars = 20.5263157894737 Avg. Prev Range = 2.51087032577771 Retrace gt;= 20 percent : 0.894736842105263 Retrace gt;= 50% : 0.631578947368421 Retrace gt;= 80 percent : 0.447368421052632 Retrace gt;= 100% : 0.263157894736842 Down External Range Count = 142 | Satisfied Condition = 40 Avg. Retrace = 1.0004088704678 Avg. Range = 0.915762851740232 Avg. Bars = 20.475 Avg. Prev Range = 2.24157251365159 Retrace gt;= 20% : 1 Retrace gt;= 50% : 0.625 Retrace gt;= 80 percent : 0.4 Retrace gt;= 100% : 0.3
    In June, Inside range stats it's similar but outside stats is skewed because of Brexit, therefore I do not bill.

    If you interest in how to replie those outcomes,
    Download data out of dukascopy, M5 interval Find ZigZags with 6 pubs (30 minutes), 0.2% pips (202 pips in case USD/JPY rate = 101.0) Then check ZigZag points Low to High or High to Low to determine whether they are imblance Check following ZigZag leg
    I have checked results 2 times, yesterday night and today morning, randomly from January to August, all JPY pairs along with GBP pairs.
    But I think will re-check my code another time plus re-code at Python or ask a friend to check my code to make sure I'm not earn any mistake.

    P/S: Damn!!! GBP worked following a day, I post I didn't realize that before break outside they need to reevaluate, and USD/EUR, USD/CHF, USD/GOLD, also

  3. #13
    This only came to my head (I have this errors): When trade imbalance you should be careful if small imbalance within large imbalance and little one is opposite direction of major one.

  4. #14
    There is some failed one on July:


    And on May:


    They are for reference only. Some failed are not just failed, it may be too small to clear or to imbalance.
    Some successful aren't just successful. Some cannot tradable.

  5. #15
    what things to exchange for this year?
    Gold/X, JPY/X, GBP/X, AUD/X (except NZD, CAD), NZD/X (except AUD, CAD)
    USD, EUR, CHF is equilibrium
    For CAD, I do not have interest because I am out of Vietnam, 12 hours different.

    From January to August in 2016:






    Numbers came out as expected, fortunately!
    I do not have data such as silver, will upgrade later.

    I can't login Dukascopy to obtain data, due to recent storm affect our international online connection again. (F*ck).
    To be Updated later.

    P/S: I am lazy to explain here.

  6. #16
    What I discovered are affirmation for what UnnamedPlayr's posts that are from 2011. It had been exploited by him since then. (Not sure has or had is right, lol)

    BTW, have anyone do that?
    GBP/JPY on M5






  7. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    What I discovered are confirmation for that which UnnamedPlayr's articles which are from 2011. He had exploited it since then. (Not sure had or has is correct, lol) BTW, have anyone do that? GBP/JPY on M5 picture image picture
    What is it Zelo?

  8. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote What's it ?
    What's what?

  9. #19
    Enjoying just a couple transactions for FED and BOJ.

    Spending free time to code something deadline like EUR Extended, JPY Short (against USD), but accidentally discovering that which borrow and draw look like in chart pattern. And it affects another currencies. Formerly, I wager imbalance will become equilibrium, but I find a way to trade after the balancing procedure.
    That contributes to properly short GBP, brief CHF, brief NZD, long EUR in Friday.

    With the numbers in my findings, I can earn a trading map and quote risk/reward, time to wait,... with confident.

  10. #20
    Where is the risk?
    If something is generally in control that breaks out of control. There'll be a risk.
    G#7847;n gi#7889;ng nh#432; ch#259;n g? v#7853;y, t#7841;o 1 c?i chu#7891;ng, l?a g? v? ch#259;n. R#7911;I ro l? khi g? x#7893;ng chu#7891;ng, hay s?i nh#7843;y v?o. Offset risk nh#432; mua b#7843;o hello#7875;m.

    The purpose of this journal is to list what I find if analyze unexpected market events, how market react before and afterwards. But I am lazy to post the outcome.

    Then I discovered something on the way. I might name it How bank dealer control currencies with another currency or to exchange currencies based on another currency.
    G #7847;n #273;?y th? th#7913; n#259;m c? GBP c#7889; t#7841;o control nh#432;ng failed.
    Th#7913; s?u th? USD d?ng JPY nh#432; #273;?n b#7849;y #273;#7875; #273;#7849;y NZD v? GBP split outside range, sau khi s#7893; s?ch #273;#432;#7907;c c?n b#7857;ng (after novels are bablanced), l?c #273;? s#7869; t#7841;o trend. NZD and GBP continued to lower.
    D?ng c?ch hi#7875;u n?y #273;#7875; gi#7843;I th?ch th? khi commerce s#7869; Reduce risk, clear other futile indiors out of chart.

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