Thread: Auction Market Value Theory and Analytics

Originally Posted by ;

Dear MzVega, this is very intriguing! I've few questions : 1. So when we add the number of the days (more than 1 day), the random walk begin to vanish, am I right?

When you increase the sample size of your information for analysis#8230;#8230;. .you may filter out some of the component. But your missing the point,

Originally Posted by ;

2. When the daily information is presented as trace A gt; B gt; C gt; D gt; E gt; ..., can we rephrase the typical believe into this sentence Prices in period A have some thing to inform traders regarding prices in period C, Prices in period B have some thing to inform traders regarding prices in period D? Is this mindset right?

OHLC (live market quotes) information aren't formulated into a statistically measurable and logically sound arrangement of information that offers information#8230;. .
Not if these phases (a, b, c,etc) are candlesticks #8230;#8230;.you are still attempting to examine a linear show in a non linear environment
https://www.forexforum.co.za/trading...00-2008-a.html

Serial means one event at a time. It's generally contrasted meaning more than 1 event.
When you line your data up in a single row serially it is a linear step, that looks like a line hence linear 1 dimensional, '' It's the nature of the information, it's always going to look serially correlated

Originally Posted by ;

4. Can we read a helpful information if we could display a 2D (two seasons) candlestick on a chart? What I mean is 1 candlestick signify OHLC.

When I used the abbrev. 2d I assumed you were familiar with a few of the source material, and all the thread. When I used the abbrev. 2d it had been meant as 2 dimensional price *time format, not a 2 day candlestick

Originally Posted by ;

How many days are optimal in finding out the state of the following sequence?

See, there you go again....Stop believing in candlesticks, right lines, timeseries sequences. This is not TA
https://www.forexforum.co.za/trading...o-journal.html

Originally Posted by ;

5. Days are optimal in finding out the state of the sequence?

In AMVT using market generated information( not candlesticks), we employ a minimum 3 day rule for analysis. For the exact reason you pointed out#8230;#8230;.the data confirms the theory, We employ 3 or more to allow room to determine little changes/movement the market generated information, not a series of candles#8230;...

I also interested to observe the average accuracy between the open, high, low and detailed information. I add all the percentage and divided it with 16 (16 pairs).
I saw that High and Low give just a little bit more percentage in being proper. Did this provide information MzVega? Thanks in

Ps : it seems like two days give higher percentage of significance then 3 times. Perhaps I am wrong, dunno!!

Dear MzVega, this is extremely intriguing!

I have few queries :
1. So if we add the number of the days (more than one evening), the random walk begin to vanish, am I correct?

2. When the daily data is introduced as trace A gt; B gt; C gt; D gt; E gt; ..., can we rephrase the typical believe into this sentence Prices in period A have some thing to inform traders about prices at period C, Prices in period B have some thing to inform traders about prices at period D? Can this mindset correct?

3. If query number 2 is correct, doesn't it imply that there is nevertheless a sequential correlation between today data along with the data from two days ago?

4. Could we read a useful information if we could exhibit a 2D (two seasons) candlestick on a chart? What I mean is one candlestick signify OHLC.

5. Days are optimal in determining the condition of the next sequence? Discover that 3 times is optimal, when I attempt to compute the percent, 5 and 4 times and I attempt to edit your files formula. Forgive me if I make mistake in editing the formula, I just changed the value of this I Column, into something like this =IF(F5gt;F2,H,IF(F5lt;F2,L,IF(F5=F2,0,))) (3 times comparation)



Due

Why do people use Candlesticks? Why are they plotted after the next in a series? Since there's that underlying belief in serial significance, that prices in interval A have something to inform traders about prices in period B.

Proof demones that there is no serial correlation. The notion that prices in interval A that have some thing to inform traders about prices in interval B is simply correct about 50% of the time.........It does not prove that the market is a random walk....... .

Let us see how well the statistics change when you simply alter how you think.......

If you take the fact that there's not any serial correlation, and because the market is non linear, then it isn't logical to view the market in a terminal string. Let us look at the data again, employing a 2 day sample of data instead of a linear time series of individual candlesticks.........

The statistics grow by about 20 percent when you just alter how you think.........

On unlocks....

on highs....

on lows....

on closes....

Why are the data better? If you use non terminal measures, in a non surroundings you've got a more accurate measure of the surroundings.
Non linear data can't be plotted using Time Series, since the data isn't linear rather than a series.

The market is reported as ticks, Price and the time in which it occurred (2D)
What occurs next is that the data is subjectively divided into TF's ( 1m, 5m, 15m, and 30m. Etc.) depending on the viewer. This skews the data. Each place where the data has been subjectively broken into TF's creates a low and a high. This is subjective info since it is biased from the selection of TF of the observer. Already you have flaws in your data set. You are presently using data removed from the market generated Price *Time format.

Like I mentioned before
Tick data does not possess an open, high, low, or close quote it only tells the preceding price. The OHLC quotes occur after tick data was collected and coerced into data, for example one minute, one day, one hour, or any other duration that is chosen. The forex charting company -Archer
Pasted from lt;https://www.forexforum.co.za/general...realistic.htmlgt;

Now that the data has subjectively been divided into TF's. The data inside the interval(candlestick) is sorted (rearranged) into a terminal series from top to low forming a bar/candle. Now your data set has been skewed by you. Remember the tick data did not start out as a series. Your data is twice removed from it's original context (market generated price *time format) Your candlestick TF's only seem like a succession of prices from top to low, since you manipulated the data to achieve that.
Pasted from lt;https://www.forexforum.co.za/trading...00-2008-a.htmlgt;

using candles ticks bar charts are non permitted clinics in AMVT, the market is obviously non linear, and price fluctuations in interval A convey no advice regarding price changes in interval B, in other phrase meaningless..........

I'd love to throw up a chart, however the data does not reside on the chart, It is impossible to plot non terminal data, utilizing a linear display. I believe it is interesting how many people conflate charting visualization with actual analysis.

The data exists, it just does not reside on the chart.........
the data prove there is no day to day, hour to hour, serial correlation in the market and the statistics reveal that by no signifies can it be a Random Walk either.

The statistics increase by roughly 20 percent when you just alter how you think.........
https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachm...652816413.xlsx
https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachm...834239543.xlsx
https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachm...274781771.xlsx
https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachm...828471908.xlsx

I thought I'd include tick quantity, before I move on to my next point and yes mav3n, no serial correlation with hourly data either.


https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachm...991419333.xlsx
https://www.forexforum.co.za/attachm...504398678.xlsx

Since you dont use OHLC data for analysis , you don't use it for buy/sell either so that you use data from report:

Originally Posted by ;

. . .The data used here for analysis does not live on the chart, you can't see or quantify non linear relationships with a linear screen (time series). ...

I presume that your market price was approximately at 0.8812. Which parameter(s) from report give you the price to market? Thank you.

Originally Posted by ;

picturepicture

EOD, time to close the previous half position at 1.3454.

False BO degree has shown little resistance, good
Reached first target, out with half position at 1.3433.
Go with the remaining half to continue target at 1.3490 or discontinue profit at 1.3387.

GbpChf
Long entry on the vertical line on the BO of 20,15,10,5,3 mounts
In my view 1.3390 is a hazardous potential false BO target level.
If the entry is good possible target at 1.3421 and 1.3490.
Cease below the middle of this 5D bracket.