I basically trade by searching for risk on or risk off markets (extended eur/usd, short eur/usd}
Everybody was awaiting the U.S. cpi report on 2/14 @ 13:30 GMT. Because of the NFP, the thinking was if inflation amazed up it would be a big negative. Sure enough, the report come out high and the dollar got purchased against what (risk off, short eur/usd)
However, I look at the DAX and see it goes from negative to pos within about 15-20 minutes. To put it differently, the DAX was going in the risk on direction as currencies moved the other way. This is something I have seen frequently; the DAX is a good top indior for how ny will exchange. (Of course, this excludes news that is not scheduled to emerge e.g. Mnuchin talking the dollar down)
Finally, the euro started moving up and I got extended at 1.2320.