View Full Version : 95% of the time the price will close above or below the opening price
�95% of the times the price will close above or below the opening price. Less than 5% of the times, the price will close at the same point where it opened. In this truth the gold pot is hidden.� This phrase completely changed my way of seeing the graphics and the market. When I read it for the first time it was like an absolute lighting. Most traders do not see the huge advantage that is hidden in that statement. How do we apply this to real trading? The previous phrase is equivalent to saying: the price will always move away from any point of reference. It will always be up or down the bar; the market does not stop. The price is always moving. The 95% of the time, the price is not on the line, it is around it. Every candle in any point confirms it. I have a great respect for CrucialPoint and I have read all your publications many times. He wrote: �It does not have anything to do with the price history nor with the past data. But to simplify, I want you to open any daily, weekly or monthly graph. Look at the last candle. Don�t see the theory, it doesn�t apply to the past, only.
Most repeat the phrase �price moves away from the opening point� as if it were a magical mantra, but few understand what it really means. It�s not a formula to earn automatic money, it�s a statistical observation that needs context, direction and proper management to make sense. If you jump to buy over a line without more, the only thing you�re going to get is a collection of stops. The real power is to know WHEN that expansion is likely to continue. There comes the momentum analysis, risk management, market behavior. Price moves, yes. But not every movement generates profit. You need to operate with intelligence, not with faith.
Many are obsessed with the �point of reference� as if it were the Holy Grail. But let me tell you something: the line is worthless if you don�t understand what�s behind the movement. That line represents a moment in time, not a magical signal. If you don�t know what the price does around that line, then it�s like throwing a coin. And in that case, you better have a management system that saves you from yourself, because the line alone isn�t going to do it.
What I like most about this theory is that it simplifies entry. You don�t need to go crazy with a thousand indicators, or expect eternal confirmations. You just choose one side, you define your line and you operate expansion from there. But beware, don�t confuse simplicity with lack of analysis. The strength of the model is in its minimalist approach, yes, but that doesn�t mean you have to ignore the environment. Without context, any line is just a drawing on the graph.
I have seen many systems based on this idea of �buy up, sell down� and I tell you one thing: almost everyone fails because they ignore a fundamental detail. The market does NOT behave the same all the time. Expansion is not always clean, and many times there are violent setbacks before the real movement. That�s why the key is not only in the entrance, but in how you manage it. Get out quickly, re-enter if the environment allows it, cut losses without blinking. Anyone who thinks he�s going to have a perfect entry every time, is doomed to get frustrated.
The theory is solid, I don't deny it. But what really made me earn money was to stop looking for reasons and just watch what the price does. 95% of the time gets away from the opening, okay. And? What do you do with that when you get a fake breakout and break your stop in 3 seconds? The answer is simple: stop playing the fortune teller and become a pragmatic operator. You go in, you go out, you protect. You don't analyze past sails for hours. You just react to the flow of the market.
I want to make a clarification for those who are confused: this theory does NOT tell you where the price is going, only that it is going to move. That difference is brutal. It is of no use to you if you do not know in which direction to take that movement. That is why you need to have a clear hypothesis and execute it with criteria. It is of no use to know that the price will move if you move before him. And if you go ahead without confirmation, get ready to be swept like a rookie.
Some of you should print the 1-2-3 rule on the wall: choose one side, mark the line, operate according to your decision. It can�t be clearer. But the hard thing is to have the discipline to do it every day without sabotaging you. And that�s where 95% loses. Because it�s not the system that fails, it�s your emotions. If you change your mind every time, if you can�t hold a position, if you don�t respect your plan... then it doesn�t matter the statistics.
This idea has given me a lot of insights about how the price operates. When I stopped thinking about �sails� and started seeing them as explosions of movement from a zero point, everything became meaningful. Each candle is a story told from a line. If you know how to read that story, you can anticipate the next chapter. The key is to understand that you create your own candle with each entry. Your entry price is your opening point. Everything that comes after depends on whether you chose the side well and if you were able to hold the pressure.
I have been applying this logic for more than two years and although it is not infallible, it has improved my performance brutally. But not because of the theory itself, but because of the change of mentality involved. I went from looking for perfect signals to executing clear decisions based on a simple point of reference. That took away my fear and paralysis.
Many repeat the phrase as if it were a religious mantra. But if you don�t understand the concept of �range expansion� you�re missing the point. The line is just a trigger. Magic is on how the price develops from there. Not all expansions are opportunities. Some are traps. If you don�t know how to distinguish them, you�re going to pay too much to believe that statistics protect you.
This is not a closed strategy, it is a frame of reference. You decide how to get in, how to get out, how much to risk. But if you don�t have that clear from the beginning, don�t expect magical results. The market rewards execution, not theory.
The most powerful thing about this vision is that you can apply it to any time frame, to any instrument, without changing the essence. Whether you operate on H1 or in Renko, the principle is the same: the price moves from an origin, and that movement can be captured.
I am surprised that there are still those who mock this idea. They are probably the same ones who have been jumping from system to system for years without finding consistency. Sometimes, the most obvious thing is what we ignore because we seem �too simple�.
Do you want to know if this theory works? Try dialing the daily opening and observing what the price does during the session. Not once, do it for 30 days. You will see patterns repeat, you will see rejections, you will see breaks. And if you pay attention, you will see opportunities.
People talk about �statistical potential� as if it were a guarantee of profit. It is not. But it is an advantage if you know how to use it. Like having the wind in favor: it does not guarantee you to arrive, but it pushes you if you row in the right direction.
Anyone who says this idea is useless has not proved it with the seriousness it deserves. Or worse, it proved it wrong, without discipline or context, and now blames the concept instead of reviewing its execution.
The beauty of this is in its mathematical logic. If the price only stays at the opening point 5% of the time, then any other situation gives you advantage. You don�t know where it will go, but you know it will go. That�s the starting point.
Applying this precisely requires more head than technical skill. Because it is not difficult to draw a line, but it is to wait for the right moment to act. Impatience is the worst enemy of this type of operation.
I have lost operations by entering before the price confirmed your intention. The result? False breaks, stops executed, frustration. Until I understood that the line is not an entry order, it is a barrier that must be crossed with conviction. (continued from Creator 21 in the next block
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