Thread: Tomorrow: Fed rate announcement and its effects...

What surprises me is that there are so many traders who still do not understand that the big movements do not come from the data, but from the expectation. If everyone expects 25 and that�s what they announce, the impact is limited. But if the press conference suggests more cuts, that does move the market. My advice: don�t just look at the number, wait to read the reaction in the first 15 minutes. That�s where the real direction is defined.

I have no idea what the Fed is going to do and I am not ashamed to say it. I would rather be honest with myself than invent theories to justify a position. What I am clear about is my action plan. Whatever happens, I have key levels to act on. I don�t need to guess, just react correctly.

I stopped operating news years ago. Too unpredictable and stressful. I prefer to let the market do its show and then go in with the calm of who already saw how it all settled down. Also, with the manipulation that exists before these events, the wisest thing is not to be inside. The price does absurd things. Let the desperate fight for those pipes. I pass.

What worries me more than the cut is the inflation that remains unchecked. Lowering rates in an inflationary context can be a time bomb. It cannot be stimulated and contained at the same time. The Fed is on a tightrope, and any false step can have global consequences. We will see if they achieve balance.

Some are too focused on the main pairs. I�m going to look at the gold and the indexes. That�s where the impact is usually more direct and with less manipulation. If they go down 50, the gold could take off as in the old days. And the indices could celebrate until they realize the reason for the cut.

The new ones get excited with the idea of guessing the movement. But the real thing is that no consistent trader operates like this. The reaction is operated, not the news. My suggestion is to wait for direction, look for a structure, and just there enter. The one who guesses, loses. The one who waits, wins.

I have the impression that if the EDF goes down more than expected, the banks will start to sound the alarms. We have already seen too much pressure in the financial sector. Another sharp cut can make them waver. And if the banks get scared, the dollar too. It may be the beginning of a deeper correction. Do not underestimate the consequences of a poorly measured monetary policy.