Thread: Lebanon and Israel

Do not expect strong movements if the conflict remains contained at the border. Now, if a major third party is involved or there is impact in strategic areas, the market will react in seconds.

The problem is that all this is already �every day�s bread.� The Middle East burns every so often, and unless it directly affects oil, institutional traders do not change. And if they don�t move, neither do we. We follow big money.

I understand you. I also thought the market was going to react stronger. But in the end, trading is like this: often the logical thing doesn�t happen. The key is not to operate what you think �should� happen, but what the price shows.

When there's geopolitical noise, gold always becomes an emotional thermometer, but Forex... unless the global supply of something is cut off, it doesn't usually move because of this.

I do not understand how some expect the market to react to each conflict. If so, we would live in 24/7 crisis mode. For there to be a real impact, there must be direct economic consequences.

A lot of attention to underestimating this kind of conflict. Sometimes it seems local, but a spark can set fire to an entire region and move markets unexpectedly. If Iran gets involved, for example, there you will see the dollar react.

This is not new. Every time there is tension between Israel and any of its neighbors, the markets already know the script. That�s why you see this calm. Until something out of the ordinary happens, they won�t move strong.

What I find dangerous is that widespread indifference, because when the market suddenly realizes, it reacts violently, and if you're misplaced, it gets you out of the game without warning.

Watch out for political intuition. War does not mean that EUR/USD will collapse. The market often does the opposite of what you wait for.

CHF and JPY are your friends if this scale. Both are refuge coins that react to global conflicts.